Significant Cancer Clusters in Florida

charjohncarter said:
Then you soon know how difficult it is to PROVE something. You are not old enough but there were over 30 years of studies on the link between smoking and lung cancer which was finally deemed proven in 1963-1964. Everyone knew the risk, but to have statistical proof with good scientifically administered studies is a different story.
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FYI ... a research team in Canada has "established" association between breast cancer and smoking.

As for checking accuracy of work, we were grilled ... over and over by the reviewers, but our results stood firm. I know what I am doing. I have now 4 graduate students extending my work for other states. Maybe it is "your" home state?
 
mabelsound said:
Congrats...I find this subject quite interesting...trying to sort out coincidence from verifiable fact must be a real challenge.

Glad to hear that your county is safe!
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... don't say "safe"! We are just in less deep crap than other parts of Florida, but we are in ....:bang:
 
In 2008, the FDOH published a report on pediatric cancer in florida for 1980-2000. I published in 2010 the same for 2000-2007. They had no clusters identified, but I have.
I may have created more work for them, but it is worthwhile.
 
raid said:
FYI ... a research team in Canada has "established" association between breast cancer and smoking.

As for checking accuracy of work, we were grilled ... over and over by the reviewers, but our results stood firm. I know what I am doing. I have now 4 graduate students extending my work for other states. Maybe it is "your" home state?
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I'm not surprised (by the smoking/breast cancer study), but it will have to go before a peer review committee and be picked apart. Then there will have to be other independent studies to back up their study. And then finally it will go to publication, and possibly earn a government warning. Even then it could be shot down later by better run or more conclusive studies, as with the autism/vaccine theory.

I was not questioning your ability, I was only telling the story of how difficult it is to statistically prove something.
 
I hope that I did not sound defensive. This was not my intention at all.

Actually, you don't prove anything with statistics alone. The statistical findings simply show significance or lack of it, and there is no causation implied. I see it as pointing a light source at some dark alley. Maybe you find something there and maybe you don't. Each year, about 1000 clusters are reported, but these are not clusters based on a statistical mapping with an advanced algorithm and accurate data. Instead, many clusters are based on word of mouth.

The case in the Acreage started as word of mouth. Last week the FDOH confirmed the cluster. The mothers of the kids with brain tumors kept on pushing for investigations.

side effects:home values dropped; difficult to get a mortgage;
 
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raid said:
I hope that I did not sound defensive. This was not my intention at all.

Actually, you don't prove anything with statistics alone. The statistical findings simply show significance or lack of it, and there is no causation implied. I see it as pointing a light source at some dark alley. Maybe you find something there and maybe you don't. Each year, about 1000 clusters are reported, but these are not clusters based on a statistical mapping with an advanced algorithm and accurate data. Instead, many clusters are based on word of mouth.

The case in the Acreage started as word of mouth. Last week the FDOH confirmed the cluster. The mothers of the kids with brain tumors kept on pushing for investigations.

side effects:home values dropped; difficult to get a mortgage;
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I agree, proper epidemiology is, really, an/the important part of any investigation of this type.

But just an aside; if the study that you performed didn't show a cluster, the side effects would still be there. So your information is important, in this case, to validate the reality of those side effects, as well; and more significantly, the potentially harmful health effects.
 
I added an oncologist and a scientist plus an epidemiologist as co-authors to complete the team. I find it interesting that the someone now sends my results around.
 
We used zip codes in our study,while most studies use counties.
I will try to upload one figure here.
 
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This figure is for the three cancer types combined.
 

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Thanks Raid. My wife of 25 years is in medical research and after all these years of peeking in to the research community I know things only move forward with hard, patient work. Your work is a valuable step.

I've often kept a little two year old girl who survived eight rounds of chemotherapy. She is now four but several of her comrades in the hospital did not survive. Joe
 
Livesteamer said:
Thanks Raid. My wife of 25 years is in medical research and after all these years of peeking in to the research community I know things only move forward with hard, patient work. Your work is a valuable step.

I've often kept a little two year old girl who survived eight rounds of chemotherapy. She is now four but several of her comrades in the hospital did not survive. Joe
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Hi Joe,
Thanks.
It is especially painful to see kids with cancer.
There is not that much research done on pediatric cancer due to lack of data.
 
Nice work Raid! One of our neighbours growing up was an epidemiologist for the Alberta Cancer Board. My Dad was a radiation oncologist so they had mutual respect, and the occasional discussion in the street that lasted awhile- usually when I wanted to go somewhere!
 
charjohncarter said:
Those are huge areas, how many people live in 1 and 2? The California clusters, of which there are two in my county (my county is only about 20 miles wide), are much smaller than those.
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Yes, the clusters are very large in area. It is a reason for concern. Much of the SF cluster is the Everglades, but not all. Florida has a large population.
 
benlees said:
Nice work Raid! One of our neighbours growing up was an epidemiologist for the Alberta Cancer Board. My Dad was a radiation oncologist so they had mutual respect, and the occasional discussion in the street that lasted awhile- usually when I wanted to go somewhere!
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Thanks. I have seen friends and relatives die from cancer, and this drove me to such a study.
 
kudos, raid, on your publication. nice to get recognition for being groundbreaking, especially considering that your research is outside your normal specialty. glad your family isn't in the midst of it.

john carter, the cluster in kettleman sounds very bad from what I've read out here in the snowy east. a waste mgmt inc site with some very nasty soup that has crept thru groundwater to allegedly cause some pernicious human birth defects.
 
Thanks, Rob.

I took a major turn away from my comfort zone in research. I am planning to spend the coming years on this issue. I am taken aback by having my first publication being referred to by some health department as "groundbreaking". It shouldn't be.
 
Nice work, my friend.
I am convinced that there is a similar phenomenon here in my area with respect to breast cancer:I can assure you that I see what amounts to a larger proportion of breast cancer than I have previously.
All I can do is harp to women's groups about the benefits of early detection...
 
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