Richard Marks
Rexel
Dear Roger
I have not expressed any deep aversion to Europe what so ever and am most grateful for your apology.
I think you should appreciate that a number of other posters in this thread have also raised objections to your tone.
I genuinely feel this is a place best reserved for discussions relating to photography.
Enough said
Richard
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Richard,
No.
You have complained long and hard.
Some others have disagreed with me, but on my reading, even those who disagree with me apart from yourself have not complained about the 'tone', except possibly Fred, who is not exactly noted for being averse to a robust statement of his views.
For some reason, you don't like what I'm saying. That's fine. But you have advanced no arguments; you have without any attempt at justification accused me of holding extreme political views, while demanding an explanation of why I regard you as a Europhobe (which I gave); you have now said you don't like my 'tone'. Well, I don't like your 'tone' either.
You have been civil, but in a fundamentally antagonistic way. I ask again: what are your arguments? Because I'm beginning to think that you don't have any.
Roger
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Richard Marks
Rexel
Dear Roger
I am really not sure what you mean by my "arguments".
Personally I would never make political assertions on the internet and am just a bit surpised that you do and that some of them seem a bit OTT to me. I simply think these things are best kept out of a site devoted to rangefinder photography. I do not feel that I can make myself any clearer than this. This is and has consistently been my point. Please do not ask me to make it again.
I look forward to a topic on which we can perhaps agree.
best wishes
Richard
John Camp
Well-known
I have to say, Roger's positions seem more like observations than ideology, and they seem to me to be less extreme than idiosyncratic (to Roger.)
I think the dollar will decline further because the US will no longer be able to refinance from abroad. We are in a situation which increasingly resembles California (which is functionally bankrupt at this moment, issuing IOUs to people and corporations to which it owes money.) That is, the voters demand more and more service, while refusing to sanction any tax increases. So, the services have been provided by cheating -- by spending the Social Security fund, and by selling bonds abroad as a "safe haven." But now the Social Security payments are coming due with the imminent retirement of the baby boomers, and foreign bond-buyers are less and less willing to put their money in weak US dollar-denominated bonds, and going to the euro instead, which makes the euro even stronger.
At this moment, we add health care, about which everybody lies. The Obama administration says it'll cost less than a trillion dollars over ten years -- but the Congressional accounting office says it'll be closer to $2 trillion, and admit that's based on some pretty optimistic predictions about revenues. Most serious economists are talking about $3 trillion. That money does not exist. The Wall Street Journal (which is very anti-reform on its editorial page) carried a calculation on its news pages that if you took *all* the income away from *every* person who made more than $500,000 a year, it would not pay for reform as now cast by the bills moving through Congress.
I think the dollar will collapse (perhaps *swoon* would be a better word) and that in ten years, if the health plan passes, we could see the euro at $3 or more, and deep depressions over most of the world as trade dries up.
And for the guy who, referring to my earlier post, implied this only affects rich people who buy Mercedes, that's not what I was suggesting -- it's not the US that will hurt from that, it's the workers in Germany who make the Mercedes cars sold here in the US.
Overall, the point is that we are rapidly approaching a number of economic and financial crises, and this has been known for years. Well, they're here.
I think the dollar will decline further because the US will no longer be able to refinance from abroad. We are in a situation which increasingly resembles California (which is functionally bankrupt at this moment, issuing IOUs to people and corporations to which it owes money.) That is, the voters demand more and more service, while refusing to sanction any tax increases. So, the services have been provided by cheating -- by spending the Social Security fund, and by selling bonds abroad as a "safe haven." But now the Social Security payments are coming due with the imminent retirement of the baby boomers, and foreign bond-buyers are less and less willing to put their money in weak US dollar-denominated bonds, and going to the euro instead, which makes the euro even stronger.
At this moment, we add health care, about which everybody lies. The Obama administration says it'll cost less than a trillion dollars over ten years -- but the Congressional accounting office says it'll be closer to $2 trillion, and admit that's based on some pretty optimistic predictions about revenues. Most serious economists are talking about $3 trillion. That money does not exist. The Wall Street Journal (which is very anti-reform on its editorial page) carried a calculation on its news pages that if you took *all* the income away from *every* person who made more than $500,000 a year, it would not pay for reform as now cast by the bills moving through Congress.
I think the dollar will collapse (perhaps *swoon* would be a better word) and that in ten years, if the health plan passes, we could see the euro at $3 or more, and deep depressions over most of the world as trade dries up.
And for the guy who, referring to my earlier post, implied this only affects rich people who buy Mercedes, that's not what I was suggesting -- it's not the US that will hurt from that, it's the workers in Germany who make the Mercedes cars sold here in the US.
Overall, the point is that we are rapidly approaching a number of economic and financial crises, and this has been known for years. Well, they're here.
JoeV
Thin Air, Bright Sun
This is a good point. However, if China collapses (I'm assuming you're refering to the government itself) and its economy undergoes a significant downturn, this cannot help but to have dramatic consequences on the US economy and dollar specifically, given the enormous dependance the US suffers relying on China to purchase their short-term debt.
Without an adequate short-term currency market the US economy could very well collapse, or at the very least the dollar would undergo hyper-inflation. Not a good scenario.
So the sticky wicket for the current US administration is managing their precarious relationship with the PRC regime; fostering slow human-right's improvements while not upsetting the economic applecart.
~Joe
Ranchu
Veteran
Hello,
Short to medium term dollar bull here, we're about 3% of investors currently. A bit oversold, hm?
Fed's jawboning about withdrawing liquidity (about fing time), but who can trust them?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/163568-further-indication-of-a-stealth-tightening-by-the-fed
I'd take gold over euro, if I had to choose.
Guy above talked about competitive devaluation, and he's right on target. But it's gonna be hard to do that when there's so much debt denominated in dollars and the gov has to make even more of it, and everyone's defaulting. Bernanke's cornered, deflations a bitch.
Short to medium term dollar bull here, we're about 3% of investors currently. A bit oversold, hm?
Fed's jawboning about withdrawing liquidity (about fing time), but who can trust them?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/163568-further-indication-of-a-stealth-tightening-by-the-fed
I'd take gold over euro, if I had to choose.
Guy above talked about competitive devaluation, and he's right on target. But it's gonna be hard to do that when there's so much debt denominated in dollars and the gov has to make even more of it, and everyone's defaulting. Bernanke's cornered, deflations a bitch.
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MartinL
MartinL
The dollar's relative value to other currencies has been opined throughout this thread. Two related foci are slighted: a) how many dollars are available to Americans (consider fed monetary policy, unemployment) and b) what people do with the dollars they have (consider consumer spending, passive savings.)
Here's a fresh article from one of America's leading public intellectuals (who, up until a few months ago I thought 180 degrees wrong.) Yes, Richard Posner says that the best thing you can do for your country is go out and buy an M9!
Well, maybe I over-interpret
At any rate, it's a remarkable intellectual shift, and I expect that we are seeing the first of the emperor's clothes (make that the Chicago School's drawers) dropping.
http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian?page=0,0
Here's a fresh article from one of America's leading public intellectuals (who, up until a few months ago I thought 180 degrees wrong.) Yes, Richard Posner says that the best thing you can do for your country is go out and buy an M9!
Well, maybe I over-interpret
At any rate, it's a remarkable intellectual shift, and I expect that we are seeing the first of the emperor's clothes (make that the Chicago School's drawers) dropping.
http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian?page=0,0
Olsen
Well-known
My five cents:
Roger is right in that if the health care reform is going through the dollar will rise. This because US companies competing with countries with 'socialistic' health care systems for all are 'so' much more competitive. If you Americans don't support Obama's health care reform; you will be in deep trouble. No less. Over here; we are holding our breaths...
That said; you will be in trouble, regardless. The cost of being a US tax payer is enormous. The tax money going to nothing other than covering the interest on debt is all too high. Don't listen to politicians that promises you 'lower taxes'. Ever again. Because they cheat you. 'Somebody', most likely yourself, have to cover that cost further down the road.
Vote on politicians that promise to pay down your debts.
Roger is right in that if the health care reform is going through the dollar will rise. This because US companies competing with countries with 'socialistic' health care systems for all are 'so' much more competitive. If you Americans don't support Obama's health care reform; you will be in deep trouble. No less. Over here; we are holding our breaths...
That said; you will be in trouble, regardless. The cost of being a US tax payer is enormous. The tax money going to nothing other than covering the interest on debt is all too high. Don't listen to politicians that promises you 'lower taxes'. Ever again. Because they cheat you. 'Somebody', most likely yourself, have to cover that cost further down the road.
Vote on politicians that promise to pay down your debts.
gdi
Veteran
We (the US) need to reform our health care system, but I have seen nothing that would lead me to believe lack of passing a reform bill has caused the dollar's recent slide. Have you seen substantiation of that as fact?
It doesn't seem to make sense to me, since we have had the same system for periods of dollar strength. We also have some of the highest corporate tax rates in the world - even higher than many "socialistic" countries - which contributes to a lack competitiveness, in addition to health care costs.
As for passing health care reform driving a dollar rise, I think you need to consider that no bill currently under serious consideration will remove the cost burden from our large firms. They will most likely result in higher corporate taxes and even totally new taxes or penalties being assessed on companies which do not offer health benefits currently.
I think there are many and varied reasons for the dollar weakness - and they not going to be remedied by any actions currently being pondered in Congress. I agree with you, the US is in for a long slog toward debt retirement but we cannot just pass it along to our children by delaying the obvious.
We do need to to vote for politicians who will pay down the debt AND reduce the massive spending they have become accustomed to.
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Roger Hicks
Veteran
Olsen
Well-known
Your current health care system-cost is all too high. It is driven by greed of companies and is an increasing burden of your exporters, from Caterpillar to Microsoft. Your health care industry 'steals' an all too large a piece of the total cake. If you decided to change this, the 'real' competitiveness of the USA would come to it's right. The expectation of this, is the general belief over here, would set USA on a far better course - which would strengthen the dollar.
We see some of the domestic US debate on this health care reform over here which we find right out frightening (and misleading when it comes to using European countries as examples of 'socialistic' systems). With even participants like the Michael Milken (earlier convicted for 10 years in prison for securities fraud) now arguing on TV (in both comercials and debates), along with the trillion dollar health care industry, 'fore' the current system. A guy on AlJazeera reports today that USA today reminds of the months leading up to the JFK assassination in 62'. Here is a lot of money at stake. Frightening!
gdi
Veteran
There are many uncertainties in the US and Global economic and political landscape, including recent evidence pointing to the fact that the banking system is still far from stabilized.
To pick one of the uncertainties as being the key to a rise in dollar strength is really just speculation - it could be right, but then again...
MartinL
MartinL
You probably don't mean "substantiation . . . as fact" (folks contributing here are in the main well informed, and much that is tossed about in this thread approximates fact.) But you seem to be asking for causality--much harder to substantiate. Correct that the salient point of health care reform it is greater health and not a favorable climate for buying EU cameras.
And what system is that? True, there are fundamental consistencies within American capitalism, but Hoover, FDR, Reagan, LBJ, Bush W., etc., exhibit differences worth noting.
First point is not correct, but this is not the place to try to school you on that. Second point, related, is that not even the most orthodox economic conservatives are still blaming corporate taxes for our economic troubles , lack of competitiveness, or balance of trade. A little hard to follow, but you seem to be saying that higher corporate taxes "contribute
Again, I can see why, as you say, "It doesn't seem to make sense to me." Although we surely need to slow the increase in the rate of debt, "paying it down" is not very sound economics. Again this is for reasons that don't make good intuitive (national economy) sense to people who live within their means and think it's a good idea to pay cash for $7k cameras.
I'd recommend the article I posted earlier in this thread.gdi
Veteran
The cost is too high and I agree for a number of reasons - medical costs are soaring for various reasons, including the availability and demand of new expensive procedures and the defensive medicine in the face of litigation. Of course pharmaceutical costs, lifestyle health problems, etc. add to the costs as well. Greed, sure there is that - like every industry, some of it (in the form of a profit motive) drives innovation and even efficiency, some of it results in fraud and waste.
But of course we have been over this before and my views would not surprise you, so I am content to wait and see what the future legislation holds and we will all live/work with what we get - but it is one prescription which, I am sure, will not cure all our financial ills.
And, darn it, I forgot to Tivo the Al Jazeera guy!
gdi
Veteran
Our health care system of course.
Even if you were willing to do so, I am afraid I would have to take a pass. The facts are not in your favor.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30727913?slide=11
You did not read my post correctly; maybe that is why you have taken such a condescending tone with me. But that's Ok, I'll leave it where it is, I really don't want to get into any arguments today.
Take care!
Olsen
Well-known
Sure, there is uncertainties in both the US and Global economy. But the US banks are worst off. Isn't US financial system stabilized? How much has been pumped into the US financial institutions only the last 12 months? If the buyers of Dollars, mainly us, the Europeans, say to you 'fix your health care system and we will buy your dollar again', isn't that a signal...?
Roger Hicks
Veteran
I never said it was the key, merely a key. I aso cited an unwinnable war in Afghanistan. Again, not the key, but a key. Sure, there are more, including one-way bets made on Wall Street (though that is being addressed) and China's immense investment in the USA: accepting the latter, from a state that avowedly does not believe in capitalism, is playng Chinese roulette (like Russian roulette, only with more chambers loaded).
Turn off the keys that you can, one by one, and the dollar will strengthen. Ignore them all, and it will continue to weaken.
Tashi delek,
R.
gdi
Veteran
Absolutely, Roger. Your last paragraph is the "key" to a solution.
Ranchu
Veteran
The Horrible Conundrum Facing the Fed.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1467-The-Horrible-Conundrum-Facing-The-Fed.html
:bang:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1467-The-Horrible-Conundrum-Facing-The-Fed.html
:bang:
Al Kaplan
Veteran
Nobody is forcing you to buy an M9 or an M8 or an M7...or to shoot digital or to use Leicas. If you can't afford it them's the breaks! Welcome to the club.
If Leica is going after the wrong market they'll soon be out of business, but that's their problem, not ours. There is plenty of used stuff out there. Then there's Bessa and Zeiss for M mount film cameras. We'll survive.
If Leica is going after the wrong market they'll soon be out of business, but that's their problem, not ours. There is plenty of used stuff out there. Then there's Bessa and Zeiss for M mount film cameras. We'll survive.
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