The enigma of the ZI.

M

mfs

Guest
I was off the site briefly, and now that I am back, I have a few questions , and comments about the ZI, and new RF's in general.

Sadly, we all must agree that film based cameras are not a growing market segment. We only have to see Kodak's recent closure of plants, the demise of Ilford, and Bronica as examples.

Yet , in the midst of this, the ZI was announced. Why?? Certainly the Rollei RF was not a commercial success. The CV line of cameras, and lenses (of which I am a member) has had some success. The ZI body, and some of the lenses will be manufactured by CV. Why would CZ put all of the RD effort, and expense into such a limited market?? Also, exactly what portion of the lens manufacture is being performed by CZ?? Just fabricating the elements, or is there any CZ control when the lens is assembled by CV??? Who will supervise the final QC???
Last point. Mr. Kobayashi has said that he will never prodce a digital camera. Yet the Epson RD-1 is a modified R2. So how much of the RD-1 is Epson based??
The main reason for my digital question is there are rumors that a digital ZI may be manufactured. If the ZI is a CV body, who will make a potential digital ZI?

Is the ZI a trial horse for a future, and potentially more profitable digital version??

(Sorry for all the initials).

I apprecialte your comments.

Martin
 
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CZ designed, CV built body, Kyocera (sp) digital guts... which will cost more than the RD-1, be obsolete by advancing technology in less than 12 months, and therefore not a practical purchase by normal humans. Keep shooting film. I have no doubt that it will be of the highest quality, though.

The lenses, I can't wait. I most likely would not invest in a new ZM lens, maybe the 35/2, but it isn't that compact. But, these are the gems that will drive the profit for the ZI project. Priced at 60% of the Leica cost for similar models, I have no doubt they will be of the highest quality. Hard to be better, and I doubt that folks will trade the Leica glass they currently have, but surely they will cut into the Leica market share for new purchases. Leica will have the long standing continuous product in the market name advantage, and size on their side, ZM lenses will have equal quality, excellent optics, and PRICE PRICE PRICE on theirs. Don't count them out. Realisticly, if not for CV I would not be shooting with RF cameras for anything more than fun with a Canonet. There are a lot more people who cannot afford Leica products than those who could.
 
I suppose the camera manufacturers are catering to us "die-hards" that will continue using film and high-priced cameras. The P&S crowd is going digital, but those cameras never appealed to me anyway. So if low-volume, high-quality, and premium priced cameras like the R3a through the MP are on the market, why should WE complain! There are even rumors of a NEW NIKON SP coming out! And why not? With EX+ SP's going for $3K and used F4's going for $400 and user F5's for $600, how will the F6 make it?
 
For all the success that digital has had in the consumer market, I do know of a local camera shop owner who is having customers come back after a year with a digital camera, asking for their old film camera back (or one similar) that they traded in for the digital. Both film and digital have their pros and cons, it is not like digital is superior in every way to film and that film users are luddites with their heads stuck in the sand. In some ways, consumer digital buyers are like lemmings, and some are having regrets.
 
From the FAQ:

Are Carl Zeiss lenses "Made in Japan" as good as "Made in Germany"?
Our lenses in Japan and Germany are produced using the same materials, the same construction and have the same quality standards. Wherever the lenses are made, quality assurance is conducted by Carl Zeiss personnel working with Carl Zeiss measuring machines. Carl Zeiss does everything possible to guarantee that the quality remains the same.

http://www.zeiss.de/C12567A8003B58B...69B76C1256E910023D1E3#Unbenannter Abschnitt_2
 
Also from the FAQ:

Q: Will there be a digital ZI camera?
A: This may be a future possibility.

Q: Are ZM lenses ready for use with the future digital camera?
A: Yes.

Clearly this is more than a rumor. Carl Zeiss is stating explicitly that a digital camera is under discussion. It doesn't take much reading between the lines to see that this is clearly their intent although they are not willing to publicly commit to it yet. No corporation publicly commits to a new product unto all of the details are lined up to go public & they are prepared to answer all of the inevitable questions. CZ is not there yet.

Regarding the question of why the new ZI, why R&D into such a limited market, only the decision makers at Carl Zeiss know the answers to these questions. However, there are some relevant facts:

1. Contax offered enormous rebates during the 2003 holiday buying season & continues to a lesser extent to offer rebates on their cameras & lenses.

2. It has been reported that Carl Zeiss has severed its relationship with Kyocera & that the working relationship between the two were always strained. I don't know how true this is. When I contacted them, this was not acknowledged.

3. Carl Zeiss is an enormous & successful corporation with deep pockets whose success will not rise or fall on the camera business.

Decision making at large corporations is complex & doesn't necessarily entail drawing a straight line between a product & its bottom line.Why did Konica, another large corporation with deep pockets come out with the Hexar RF 5 years ago & then abandon it?

Why did Cosina, a company with lesser resources, come out with its own rangefinder system at a time when no one was headed in that direction & demand seemed limited. I think that I read that they have only sold 8000 copies of the R2. At its price, is it a big money maker? Dante Stella has speculated that Cosina wanted something other than profits from its RF system. Prior to the Bessa series, what was Cosina known for? Cheap, poorly made after-market cameras & lenses. They now have established themselves as a manufacturer of quality camera products. This can only help their long term position in the industry. The association with Rollei was a toe in the water. Serving as an OEM for Epson was a step into the 21st century. This new partnership with Carl Zeiss moves their corporate image light years ahead, expecially if a Carl Zeiss digital system in a Cosina built body with Cosina built Zeiss lenses is in the future. In addition, they have possibly stolen business from Kyocera & thus emerged as a competitor on a bigger stage.

Back to the Carl Zeiss decision, pure speculation . . . Carl Zeiss may just like the idea of maintaining its historic position as a maker of camera lenses & may want to stay in the 135 format business. They may be willing to use the Zeiss Ikon as a loss leader for interests of PR & corporate image. They can afford to do so. If the viability of the Contax line of interchangeable lens cameras is at the end of its run & if the partnership with Kyocera is in the toilet, they may think that a more traditional rangefinder has a better future as a platform for their lenses given its recent renaissance than the P&S-type G series.

The Carl Zeiss literature on their website says that these new lenses are based on lenses developed for the movie industry. It may be that the R&D was already largely done & that conversion to RF cameras was relatively easy. The R&D for the camera body itself would have been a big expense for Cosina, but it may not have been much of an issue for a corporation the size of Carl Zeiss. Frankly, given the R&D that was already invested in lens development for the movie industry, they may simply have been looking for different applications, outlets, & profit centers for reaearch that was otherwise just sitting on the shelf. After all, how many lenses do they actually sell to the movie industry?

Just my .02 cents. the business side of the industry can be fascinating.
 
There was much speculation on one of the email lists about how the new 15mm Zeiss lens, with its retrofocus Distagon design (rather than the Biogon used before), is a more telecentric design that produces less severe oblique rays, which can cause problems with digital sensors. With wide angles being especially problematic on digital cameras at this moment (exacerbated by digital crop factors), it does seem that the new Zeiss line is being designed with digital in mind.

For example, the current CV 15mm vignettes considerably on the Epson R-D1 (more so than with film bodies), even though the R-D1 only using the bright center of the imaging circle due to the digital crop factor. The general speculation is that this is an example of the problem of the well-known oblique rays problem that had Leica declaring the digital M "impossible" only a few years back. (Leica has, of course, announced a 2006 date for the digital M when the Epson R-D1 was announced.) In the meantime, Epson has included software to "de-vignette" lenses like the CV 12mm and 15mm on the R-D1 as a workaround to the problem.

Personally, I can't wait for a digital version of the Zeiss Ikon, with its long baselength. I'm sure that we can reasonably expect that the new Zeiss lenses will work flawlessly on a digital Ikon as well.
 
Let's try to put all this together. Here's a first speculation ...

Leica, it is widely believed, is working on a full frame digital to take M series lenses and hit the market within 1 to 2 years. It will probably cost an arm and a leg, plus other assorted body parts. Many people cannot afford Leica prices. Many more cannot justify them. You either have to be a working pro (and not many of those use Leicas these days, at least not as primary equipment), or very wealthy.

Cosina has a line of reasonalby pricedbut rather well made film RFs, and has OEM'd the RD1. This did not have a full frame sensor, which means its ability to use M mount lenses is somewhat squandered. I find it hard to believe that Mr. K's assertion that he will never market a digital camera means he won't build them. He already has.

Now CZ comes out with a new (or at least facelifted) line of great lenses in M mount, a new film RF, and drops hints about a digital body to follow.

There is no question that sensor prices are falling rapidly, and it seems likely it will be more a marketing decision than a technology issue to introduce full frame sensors with 10+ MP at less than stratospheric prices within about two years.

Film is great, but under an assault like this it is going to be a niche market very soon. Even in developing countries, the falling prices of entry-level digital cameras (including those bundled with cellphones) are trending in this direction. Here in Brazil, for example, you can buy cheap digitals for 8 to 10 monthly payments of about $20. The only way I was able to dispose of two old film P&S cameras recently (quite nice ones) was to give them away. The result of this is that film and processing will get more expensive and less easy to find, especially at the local corner shop.

Photography with RFs is far from dead, so the question seems to be between APS format sensors a la RD1, which would require design and sale of a new range of lenses to provide real wide-angle, and full frame sensors to use existing M mount glass. While I believe that SLR market volume can underwrite development of the new lenses, and already is doing so, I think the RF world will just have to wait a little while longer for full frame sensors, which will provide a significant improvement in potential image quality.

IMHO, of course.
 
John, excellent analysis! A new digital Leica may draw new buyers who don't already have Leica lenses. This can open a market for M-mount lenses regardless of brand. People can mix & match. No one has a better lens line than Zeiss, so they may be positioning themselves for a new opportunity. Makes sense!

BTW, my daughter-in-law is from Brazil - Pedro Leopoldo. Good people there.
 
Cosina's Mr. Kobayashi apparently personally dislikes digital cameras, and is on record as saying he will never market a digital Voigtlander.

Yet business is business, and his business is largely as an OEM supplier. He cooperated with Epson to develop a digital camera based on the Bessa platform. It is not, we note, marketed under the Voigtlander name.

And if there is to be a digital version of the Zeiss Ikon, then much work has already been done to make this easier. And the result still won't be a Voigtlander! :)
 
Interesting comments, John! I agree that a digital M Leica would have to distinguish itself from the lesser competitors by having a full-frame sensor, and its market position could justify the high price. Customers who value the full-frame sensor might be willing to dig deeper in their pocketbook for the cost.

This sensor-size issue in interchangeable lens cameras is getting messy. And it's confusing customers with the "equivalent focal length" concept. I hope for some stability with the APS size sensors, but an even greater hope is for economical full-frame sensors to replace the smaller ones in pro-level gear.

What would Zeiss do, a couple of years hence? Would they try to horn into Leica's market with a pricy full-frame digital (assuming that's what Leica is doing)?
 
Actually, I think the full frame sensor issue is the least concern for an digital RF because it would require buying one or two new fixed focal length lenses (at the wide end, of course). This would be cheaper than buying a quality super wide zoom which is what many DSLR users need to do to match their APS-size sensors. Also, bear in mind that it costs quite a bit less to buy a new wide angle lens than it does to upgrade to a full frame sensor.


...lars
 
As far as digital is concerned I suspect Zeiss is waiting for the dust to settle a bit before moving ahead with a digi-ZI. If the APS-like format continues to be the most popular they may well produce a camera using that format. If there are breakthroughs in yield rate for larger sensors in the next year or two, and thus lower prices, Zeiss might opt for "full frame" instead. This is a big "if"...making 24x36mm sensors is still an expensive proposition and is likely to remain so for some time.

In the interim I'm excited about the new glass! I've missed those lovely G lenses ever since selling my G2 back in 2000, and I expect the new stuff should be at least as good. :cool:

Nice place here.

-Dave-
 
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