The Future, Erwin Puts Predictions

[Harry Lime]

I can't see any nostalgy in manual focussing either. You point - the camera focusses. Either right or wrong, fast or slow. Compared to this, the photographer is always slow, and often wrong. DOF is a different consideration, though...

AF certainly has it's advantages, but have you ever tried to scale focus with an AF lens...? It's a nightmare to do.

Puts mentioned the Micro 4/3 (EVF) in the beginning. To me, this is the future approach in semi professional photography. (The mass will keep use their cell phones to make pictures, though). DSLR is dead, finally. The micro 4/3 EVF is closer to the CRF (Leica M) approach as to the DSLR anyway.

One of the biggest problems with EVF is that they aren't fast enough for decisive moment photography. Even if that tiny screen is running at 60fps, it's too slow. For that sort of work you need a viewfinder that operates at the speed of light and that means a direct viewfinder (Leica) or an optical SLR system. Personally I consider EVF displays mass consumer technology.

 

[PetarDima]

full frame sensor in ZI body... Oly DFR camera is great little camera ... but without zone focusing option.

 

[redpony]

I've been shooting with SLR's for a long time, until about a year ago when I picked up an Olympus 35 RC on a whim for 20 bucks. Nowadays I really do not like shooting with an SLR. It strains my eye in a way that the rangefinder never does and I now realized that it had created a "tunnel vision." I ended up with a Zeiss Ikon, but a new MP is still attractive simply because it's what I consider the pinnacle of the format.

The general consumer market is heading in a different direction, but I think the CRF's long-term prospects as a niche product are just fine. The future economy will be kind to specialty markets that cater to the long tail.

 

[Pickett Wilson]

redpony, I'm afraid the RF market doesn't have a long tail. With Leica shipping 120 units a month, it sounds more like a bob tail to me.

 

[Al Kaplan]

But how many units are Zeiss, Voigtlander, etc. shipping per month? That's part of the tail also.

 

[Pickett Wilson]

Those would be interesting numbers to know, indeed.

 

[Al Kaplan]

If we expand the discussion to include used cameras what's happening to prices of "users" and is the supply expanding or contracting? What about fixed lens rangefinder cameras from the 60's and 70's and beyond, such as the Canonet, Konica's examples, the various Yashica models, etc.? Prices stable? Up? Down?

If a market exists somebody will cater to it, even if it turns out to be a Chinese copy of a Nicca assembled in India.

 

[Harry Lime]

redpony, I'm afraid the RF market doesn't have a long tail. With Leica shipping 120 units a month, it sounds more like a bob tail to me.

They are trapped in a vicious cycle.

At $4,000 nobody is buying bodies, which drives the price up, because the volume is so low, but volume is low, because the prices are so high.

Maybe Leica will start making them in runs, like Rollei did with the TLR. They make a few hundred or thousand once per year and that's all that is available until the next batch comes along...

 

[Trius]

They are trapped in a vicious cycle.

At $4,000 nobody is buying bodies, which drives the price up, because the volume is so low, but volume is low, because the prices are so high.

Maybe Leica will start making them in runs, like Rollei did with the TLR. They make a few hundred or thousand once per year and that's all that is available until the next batch comes along...

I actually think that would be a very smart move for Leica. It would mean a very painful cut to labour/employment, at least on a rolling basis, but I don't know any other way. The problem for Leica is their cost structure (i.e., high labour costs due to hand assembly and low volumes) is way out of line with the market. The market has changed, they have not.

 

[Tuolumne]

Leica will live on. Cosina will buy the brand name out of bankruptcy and do something sensible with the product strategy.

/T

 

[dazedgonebye]

I actually think that would be a very smart move for Leica. It would mean a very painful cut to labour/employment, at least on a rolling basis, but I don't know any other way. The problem for Leica is their cost structure (i.e., high labour costs due to hand assembly and low volumes) is way out of line with the market. The market has changed, they have not.

Have Cosina build them. They can batch them in right after the Zeiss and before the Bessas.
(Someone's bound not to like that suggestion....)

 

[Pickett Wilson]

Leica is building 120 cameras a month and folks still expect them to field a FF M9 in a couple of years. Now, THAT's faith! 😉

 

[Trius]

(Someone's bound not to like that suggestion....)

Do ya think?

 

[Al Kaplan]

The Cosina idea might just succeed if they make a few minor changes:

1.) Engrave the name Leica on the top plate. No printing on the body!

2.) Call the model "Wetzlar" so Wetzlar can be engraved directly below Leica.

3.) Price the body at or below $500.

4.) Pack a coupon book with the body. Each coupon would be good for so much off various lenses.

 

[Rui Morais de Sousa]

Since I started buying Leica / Leitz products in the 70's, that I hear about Leica beeing in deep financial difficulties.
I never was a rich man, but somehow, completely out of passion, I managed to buy five M cameras (one demonstration, one as new, the rest used. Plus a couple others, including a IIIc and CL, that I re-sold or traded) and nine Leica lenses, ranging from 21mm to 280mm (seven of them brand new).
Plus Visoflex III, bellows, filters, hoods, table-top tripod + head, Leicameter MR, etc.
I also bought a brand new Pradovit Color 250 projector, an used Focomat Ic with enlarging easel, and four or five Leica / Leitz binoculars (some new, some used, a couple for friends and relatives, a couple for myself).

Professionaly, I also used several Leitz equipment in the University of Heidelberg: cameras, lenses, Reprovit IIa, Focomat IIc, etc., etc.

So I think that I can say, in complete peace of mind, that I gave my "small" (whatever that can mean...) contribution to the company...

I am not a fortune teller (or marketing expert), so I can't predict the future of Leica.
I am very sorry, but this average guy and average photographer has no answer or solution!

Looking at the kind of products the company has to offer (endless special editions and collector's gimmicks), and looking at the respective price list ( lenses in the 5K regions...), I think that I can effortless predict MY future without beeing a guru: I MUST believe that I will never be able to buy a new Leica product again.

Maybe sad, but true...

RuiAL-MOST-LY PHOTOGRAPHY

 

[MCTuomey]

My advice to newbies: Buy a Leica MP and joy the next 60 years 😀 Someone will be able to repair it ...

Who is this "someone" you mention?

Do Sherry or Don or Youxin have apprentices?

I don't want to sound morbid, but my apprehension is that leica bodies will be paperweights once they need work after the current generation of repair people pass from our midst.

I really hope this is a mindless fear.

 

[Gabriel M.A.]

I see Mr. Puts continues to disregard many grammar rules; if he is to be academic, his writing ought to reflect this knowledge.

He raises a lot questions that he does not answer himself, and does not know where the source of his refutations come from.

In spirit, I agree with his "reflections" on the out-of-the-ether semi-dialogue he's seemingly interacting with. In practice, I don't think he's saying anything that contributes in any concrete fashion to the debate I believe he thinks he's engaging.

In short: the rangefinder is still a very usable tool which can be fine-tuned but anything beyond that will be a reinvention which has already been addressed by other tools.

 

[Gabriel M.A.]

I decided to stop reading that fool's long-winded, strangely worded ramblings 2 or 3 years ago.

lol - I opted to be "tactful". 😉

 

[35mmdelux]

Leica is building 120 cameras a month and folks still expect them to field a FF M9 in a couple of years. Now, THAT's faith! 😉

Interesting observation.

 

[Gabriel M.A.]

One thing Puts missed is that people will continue to use RFs for psychological and aesthetic reasons.

Some people simply enjoy using RFs more than SLRs, for reasons that are impossible to describe.

Those arguments comparing RFs to SLRs miss the aesthetic factor. It's like saying that jazz will vanish in the future because heavy metal is cheaper, has more notes, is faster, and all the young people listen to it 🙂

Very well-put.

My favourite analogy is the Mini-van drivers complaining that the Harley-Davidsons are flawed as they're missing a pair of tires, a roof, three back-seats, the DVD player and power sunroof.