The future of the M-mount

[ISO]

Sorry, another "future thread". But there is just this Tulsa story about the buried in a time capsule 1957 Plymouth Belvedere in the news. The part that I liked most was that they buried ten gallons petrol with the car, because "1957 the people in Tulsa thought that in 2007 we will have another energy to drive cars". Sadly 'Miss Belvedere' is rusty...(find the full story. it is nice !).

It is a rainy Saturday here and so I spend some time looking at some cameras again. I was asking myself the question about the future of the M-mount. There already exists enough fine M-mount glass on the market, but hopefully we can expect that companies like Leica or Zeiss will, for a long time, try to improve there lenses, or bring new models on the market. Another question if the lenses can get any better from now on. But what is about the M-mount bodies. I ask myself what could be improved on a camera. Mechanics? Light-meter? Speed ? Format and size of the sensors or medium? Maybe cameras as we know them, are already improved to the top.

Probably there will be not much FILM based M-Mount bodies to be produced in the future. Every manufacturer tends to produce digital bodies. We have still Leica producing the M7 and MP and, there was Zeiss just coming out with there M-mount RF, I believe the Bessas are still produced. But I think the future of camera production is digital or even another "format". I would say , no more "improved" M-mount FILM bodies to be produced in the future. Leica will end the production of the M7 sooner or later, but hopefully will stick to to MP for a long time, if buyers want to have a brand new "Film- Leica".

What can we expect from the DIGITAL side? At the moment there is just the M8, after Epson has ceased production of the R-D1, and has no plans for a successor. I guess Didier is right in another thread, when he said that "Epson has given up for other reasons than production amount and profitability only. The digital rangefinder camera has always been a foreign object in their product line. A luxury, special interest item inbetween inkjets and medical gear. More prestige to lose than money to win." I would say no R-D2. There is speculation that Zeiss will come with a digital body, which could be a big success for the company. Leica maybe will bring a M9, a digital very fine MP or, the dream I have, a digital CL. Bessa? A Sony M-mount? What is the future of M-mount camera bodies?....... Please do not discuss film or digital as a format and what is "better" here. That was done enough. I think that almost 100% of new cameras produced in the future will have digital format or "another digital format". Here it is about the future of M-mount cameras ? Do we get digital cameras, where we can also put "old school" -film in? Will everybody be happy with a 10mp digital camera in our phone? - Do not think so. Will we get something else, another "format", than the digital we know for the moment? What is gonna happen? What do you think?

...I would say, the M-mount will never die. There already exists enough great stuff out there and it is produced for longevity. Sure there are some of you saying, I stick to my M2 and film for the next 150years ;-) , and that is just fine. But this thread is for the visionary. How many more M-mount cameras to be expected? What will happen after the M8......? Where do you see the M-mount in the future?

 

[thomasw_]

I see the M mount going toward digital. But there will be film body MPs, ZM Ikons and Bessas made for the next while. This blurb by the Zeiss VP says a lot about their view of film and its preference by a certain sector of the market.

 

[erikhaugsby]

I'm not quite sure that the M-mount will completely die, though I wouldn't be surprised it it was "modified" per se for digital-specific or digitally-optimized lenses meant to play to the strengths/weaknesses of a digital sensor.

Canon supposedly has been developing a new digital-only mount (not EF-S, but one meant for ultra-quality lenses) for some time, though as of now I haven't heard anything official; this is what I'm believing Leica will do around the debut of their next digital M.

 

[HSI]

Look at Canon.
The FD mount of lens, plenty of great glass invested into the series, and yet once the AF revolution hit the FD mount was dropped in a scurry to grab ahold of the new EOS line of cameras they began to exclusively produce.
Now look at Nikon.
Same mount from 1959 on.

They are diffrent types of companies running in a comeption between each other.
Leica has its niche in the market, with all of you, the loyalist who are willing to follow this single company with such enthusiam that it would make an EOS user sick. Leica has no serious competion in the RF market, there is nothing like a Leica. But for the furture, this is somewhat of a foreboding mark. A company can only run so long with the same people buying into it, you need new cash flow and with Leica, they are going to need to something soon to bring a new generation into the market.

The M-Mount is an amazing piece of work, with more prestige then even the F-Mount, but lacks in the near future with the coming of full swing digital 'image capturing'. I belive it can live on, but needs a new generation behind it to bring it in to sepeculation of keeping an old mount. The new age though has caused almost all camera manufactuers to stop production of film bodies, and with this trend blatently apperent, Leica is probaly soon to follow as horrid as it sounds. With the fall of the 35mm format, we will see a new lens mount.

 

[ISO]

Interesting. I am sure there are more people out there having an opinion here. Come on guys...

 

[ruben]

Sorry, another "future thread"..........

😀 The problem is not with "future threads", but with apocalyptic ones.

So hereby my proposal for all. Let's start thinking about a RFF community of investors that in case either film or mounts dissapear will join forces and money to replace the need.

I have some bucks looking for investment, hopefully GAS will not drain :bang:

Take into account the day the last company stops production, most likely it will be ready to sell their installations die hard cheap.

Cheers,
Ruiben

PS
Not that it is that realistic, but at least positive thinking.

 

[ISO]

Bitterman Cameras Inc., why not. But could become very expensive at first. I thought about a classical Rangefinder body witch RF viewfinder, but the option to set on auto-focus if want. Could Nikon or Canon come out with that, maybe for there own mount, a special line for RF enthusiast like us. Will Leica bring a "cheap model" M-digital camera on the market or continues with a even more expensive M9. Will Bitterman Cameras rule the M-world ? Or,...How much will be your M8 (one of the most expensive cameras at the moment) be "worth", in value, in 5 years ? I am sure as long film exists there will be not much more of a price-drop for the M1-MP Leica Film cameras they may even become more expensive again. But a M8 in 5 years, could cost $800 on the market or maybe $10000, because it was the best digital M-mount body ever built.

 

[ruben]

I was rather thinking about film. Suppose it disappears within some 7 years. By that time RFF will have over 20 thousand members. In case half of them accepts to buy 100 canisters per year, this will create a starting demand of 1 million canisters. Then we could accept orders from Nelson photo and Photo Net too....

BTW, not Bittermann inc, but RFF Komune sounds better, and less bitter.

Cheers,
Ruben

 

[ISO]

The name, Ruben, it is all up to you. I will be very happy if there is people like you investing their money with enthusiasms and passion into projects like that. I would support you, when I buy your stuff. But if you do not come up with something new, I may find your product cheaper or better by another market or producer. And I even more support they idea of your investment into GAS, because for the price you pay you have a nice product in your hand and it gives you a lot of joy and pleasure - what is priceless by the way, anyway.

 

[ISO]

But back to the topic. What new/ next to expect ? How much will be the price of a used M8 or MP in 10 years? And why? I believe the M8 will not be the end of the m-mount production line, but what to expect ? Will there be any improved m-mount bodies built from now on ? What do you think, or know 🙂 ?

 

[ISO]

I could think of a M-mount Sony body, designed by Zeiss on there current RF line (or Zeiss with Sony chip). Maybe just one or two m-mount "digital" Leicas, what could also be a dark future for Leica as a company. Sadly Contax stopped production a couple years ago. There ideas where always inovative. But there is still Fuji who produced RF cameras in the past as well. But maybe they would come up with another mount, as Nikon and Canon. So there is not much out there. What to expect from the CV side? Maybe if Leica would come up with a new mount it would be the best they can do. Because on there newer bodies you would have to buy there new, propably very expensive 🙂, lenses. A lot of companies do that and Leica has a good name in the market, but the m-mount line would end here (and the M8 would be worthless)....
just my thoughts on a rainy Saturday. Comment if you like to, I would appreciate your opinion.

 

[Tom A]

First off I think the future for film is OK. there are still dedicated film-users with huge investments in cameras and lenses who will continue to use them. There is also substantial progress in "digital darkroom" with improved scanning and printing from negatives.
The future for Leica/Zeiss/Voigtlander is less certain as the market for "new" film cameras is diminishing. The rangefinder became very much a niche market with the advent of the SLR and today this is even more so. Cameras like the RD1 and the M8 have generated a fair bit of "noise" but lets face it. So far there are about 16000 Digital Rangefinders of this type sold in a period of 3 years (10 000 RD1's and about 6000 M8's). They are still a niche market!
To come out with a "new mount" that required lenses made for that only would require extremely deep pocket by the manufacturer. What would be possible is a mount that would remove some of the constraints that the M-mount puts on lens designers. The small exit at the back of the lens limits what can be accomplished with conventional glass/design. A larger exit pupil could theoretically give us 21/1,4's,35f1's and 50mm f0.8 with good performance. The cost would of course be staggering and the market share miniscule so the manufacturer would have to recoup investment in batches of maybe 5-600 lenses!
However, if the body was designed correctly, you could also have adapters that would allow you to use the older M-mount or even LTM lenses on the same body!
What size sensor? There tend to be a "sales and marketing" ploy with these kind of products. It has more pixels, therefore it is better and of course this justifies a price hike and subsequent drop in value of the older product.
My feeling is that a Digital rangefinder with a M-mount or a mount similar to one described above with M compatibilty and a sensor giving you 16 Mp should be enough. Maybe a full frame ?
We would of course all like an adaptive back to our old M2's and M3's, but it is highly unlikely that anyone would be willing to foot the bill for the development and manufacturing of such a gizmo.
Will we see an M9, most likely. Will it have a different mount, pobbaly not as the cost of developing a brand new line of lenses would be prohibitive. The current crop of lenses available from Leica/Zeiss/Voigtlander are the best EVER offered to RF users and further improvements will only be incrimental and probably not even noticable on a digital sensor.
What I would like is a M type body that would not make my stash of lenses obsolete. The body should have the simplicity of use of a M2 and be designed by photographers rather than accountants or computer nerds. It should have a 16Mp sensor and enhanced mono chrome ability (not color in RAW and conversion). I like black/white and if I switch from film (highly unlikely) to digital, it should allow me to continue shooting as I like. It should only be a change of medium, not style required!
The idea of a RD2 from maybe Cosina is at the moment a no go! Mr Kobayashi said that it would cost at least $5 000 000 to develop and produce and the market is still very small. You would have to write off at least 5-700/camera just to recuperate this cost and then add manufacturing and sales costs to that. AND that is based on 10 000 cameras sold which took Epson almost 3 years to do and it will take Leica at least a year and a bit to do it (and Leica is a well respected and established name).
This thread is interesting and if we stay away from "dream land" maybe some ideas will filter down to manufacturers. It is obvious that there will be no $500 16Mp Rf's with a 50f0.8 or the $ 399 21f1.4's. These cameras and lenses would make the current crop from Leica look cheap! We are looking at cameras that probably would cost $7-8000 with lenses in the same range! Are you bying?

 

[ISO]

Really good words Tom A.

 

[HSI]

Or we could stop worrying about the future stock up on a couple thousands feet of Tri-X, Double X, T-Max, and Delta 3200 each and shoot our film M's till our hearts desire.
Man I came into this at a bad time.

 

[ISO]

Worried ? Sure when you are happy with film you do not have to worry about the m-mount future, I agree. But Leica will be dead (sorry history) in 7 years, because you do not buy a new body. But maybe Ruben will buy Leica than. How does that sound Ruben?🙂

 

[HSI]

Nikon Film is dead.
Canon Film is dead.
Minolta is dead.
The list goes on and on...
Leica is going to have to stop the production of film bodies someday, but I very much cherish that they have persisted so long through this trough of the bad rep. of film.
Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[erikhaugsby]

Nikon Film is dead.

Not completely. They still do make the F6 and even the manual focus FM3A. The rest of your post is pretty accurate, though.

 

[Artorius]

Try 100 a month

Try 100 a month

I was rather thinking about film. Suppose it disappears within some 7 years. By that time RFF will have over 20 thousand members. In case half of them accepts to buy 100 canisters per year, this will create a starting demand of 1 million canisters. Then we could accept orders from Nelson photo and Photo Net too....

BTW, not Bittern inc, but RFF Komune sounds better, and less bitter.

Cheers,
Ruben

I am basically retired from photography, but am still active for a couple of markets. Since coming back to film about a year ago from a very dedicated digital career, I have, unfortunately to my demise, while shooting what they want, have been burning about 30-60 rolls on an active month. There are a LOT of clients that still want film. My stuff is travelogue and hotels, motels. I had been doing this for a few years with digital, and now find they want film. Go figure.
My guess is there is no way to duplicate film. no matter how much Photoshop you may use.

 

[ISO]

I appreciate your words Artorious. And I agree with you that we will have film for a long time. With so many film cameras out there and many people use and like them, there will always be a company producing the medium. It could be a good business even for a small company, like the one Ruben is thinking of. But please do not discuss the future of the film medium here. Stick to the topic. Thanks.

 

[Artorius]

I've got a friend...

I've got a friend...

...that has been collecting almost as long as I've been shooting, and he doesn't even have an M mount camera. He is all LTM, Rollie, and MF folders. He has a bunch of II and III Leicas.
I was in his restaurant a few days ago and he came to our table to check out my M3 & M6. He wanted to buy both, and I kindly refused. He doesn't have a computer, and he doesn't do digital. Can't confirm this, but he says he has over 1K rolls or film in his freezer, along with the appropriate mailers.
Needless to say, I am now on the VIP list at his place.