We also have to remember that Cosina makes the majority of the Zeiss lenses. It is doubtful that a Zeiss lens AND a CV lens of the same focal length and speed would be made.
There are exceptions to this though, the 50f2 Planar and the 50f2 Heliar, but apart from that only 21/4 P VC and the 21/4,5 ZM are "competing" with each other.
The Nokton 35f1.2 is a speciality lens and that market is quite small. An oversized and over priced 35f1.0 is superflous. The performance criteria would be very close and the speed gain neglible.
What Zeiss has done with their designs is established a mid-priced, top quality range with an amazing consistency in performance. I have only shot briefly with the 15f2.8 and the 85f2 so I have really no valid opinion about those. I have a full complement of the Cosina made Zeiss lenses and they are superb optics. The "rendering" or the "draw" of these lenses is consistent and the only difference you will see when looking at negatives is the angle of view. IF they continue to produce more lenses it would be imperative that the new lenses follow this "road".
The need today has to be weighted towards the digital Rf's. Fast wide angles and short tele's with f1.8 or 1.4 speed combined with increasingly sophisticated sensors will allow us to shoot in light that would have a film camera roll over and die!
The 21/2 and the 24/25 1.4's would be interesting on a M, but practical? A 21mm f2 would be big enough to distort the mount!
The big IF in this calculation is: Will there be a full frame. high res (at least 15-18Mp) digital M-mount Rf in the foreseable future? That would be the target market - there are simply not enough Rf shooters around, willing to spend big$ on "super lenses" - they would have to piggy back on a Digital Rf demand to make it possible.
Lenses like the 35f1.0 or the 50f1.0 are "bragging right" lenses from the manufacturer and to a great part, for the consumer "Hey, my lens is faster than yours!". Cosina did it with the 12/5.6 and the 35mm f1.2, neither of these lenses are super sellers, but they are cutting edge technology. Zeiss is using a different approach, take medium speed lenses and build them to the best quality they can within the cost constraints. To up the ante with "Ultra" lenses, be it wide/normal or short teles - the cost goes up substantially. You have to sell a bunch of lenses to recoup the costs!
The Noctilux is a case in point. It is a 40 year old design and when it came out it was cutting edge - today it is plain old! Modern glass technology, modern coating and the latest "modelling" of glass with Computer numerically comtrolled grinders can easily create a lens f1 or even f0,85 50mm lens that would outperform the Noctilux. The catch is volume - The Noctilux is a slow seller, usually 200-250/year and no company can afford to make a lens like this at an affordable price and expect to recoup investment in 2-3 years. Oh. it would also be BIG, particularly if someone wanted to make a 0,85 and truth be told, rather useless at that speed!
Konica made the 60mm f1,2 and later the 50mm f1.2 - both of these lenses are better than the Noctilux, but they certainly did not fly off the shelves. Yes, today they are expensive, but that is on the 2nd hand market, which did not benefit the manufacturer.
A high performance 50mm f1.1 or even f1.0 would be interesting and if it was priced in the $1600-2000 bracket it would sell. Maybe 4-500 units a year. Would I buy one - sure, but only if it outperformed the Noctilux as I have had 1/2 dozen of those over the years and they all were disappointing!
Of course the lens manufactureres are coming up with new designs and improved glass. Even optical designers and engineers get bored doing the same thing every day!
What sets Cosina apart is that the Boss, Mr Kobayashi likes optics and glass - and he is a majority share holder and doesnt really have to explain to a board why he wants to make something. He is also aware of the economics, but occasionally he just does it anyway! Can you imagine the bureaucracy that a lens like the 12mm f5.6 would have had to go through at Zeiss or Leica! Sure, they could probably have made it, but certainly not at a price of $800 with a 5 element, aspherical finder! Most likely it would have been $8000!!!! - and the finder would have been extra! No wonder Zeiss went to him when they wanted to do the ZF/ZM lens line and have a product that was priced right.
Let's hope for a 21/2, a 25 or 28f1.4, maybe a 50 f1.1 and a 85f1.4 and I might be the only one here, a 180f2.8(all right I would settle for a 3.4 or f4 too) - but be prepared, they ain't going to be cheap and they ain't going to be lightweight either. OK, while we are at it, a 75-90mm portrait lens with dial in softness and a
replacement for the venerable Dual Range Summicron in either Zeiss or CV form.