Spoks
Well-known
The dollar's relative value to other currencies has been opined throughout this thread. Two related foci are slighted: a) how many dollars are available to Americans (consider fed monetary policy, unemployment) and b) what people do with the dollars they have (consider consumer spending, passive savings.)
Here's a fresh article from one of America's leading public intellectuals (who, up until a few months ago I thought 180 degrees wrong.) Yes, Richard Posner says that the best thing you can do for your country is go out and buy an M9!
Well, maybe I over-interpret
At any rate, it's a remarkable intellectual shift, and I expect that we are seeing the first of the emperor's clothes (make that the Chicago School's drawers) dropping.
http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian?page=0,0
Thanks for the link. Very interesting. But I am not sure if I agree with your conclusion. Americans in general should rather 1) pay down on debt 2) buy something American.
rxmd
May contain traces of nut
Well, at least my Fed-2s are safe.
larmarv916
Well-known
A small reminder about US health care system..it was a creation by a democratic "total majority" of house, senate and president. It was shoved down the throats of americans..as was "food stamps", the current "welfare system" and of course...Medicare, Medicaid system..these were "froced on" Americans by then President Lyndon Johnson !
So the welfare system that is a failure, the medical care system now is exactly what the democratic congress & president crafted as the ultimate medical insurance safety net...back in the mid 60's The government rules and loop holes were created by government for political gain..and now are ignored as the actual root of "our" problems.
This system is designed to reduce actual amounts of money allowed , defacto denial of health care, as like in any other socialist concept a group of federal paper pushers will tell you what you can or can not get money for in your treatment. Big Brother strikes again. This program forces you to participate, as well as your doctor. Government never has improved or fixed anything...not even the roads.
Toxic debt swaps..some 11Trillion remaining..all wall street ! Were created in US Dollars...so that means they must be unwound in Dollars. But as the currecny wars...slay the USD the cost to unwind then drops big time. Just think if you have to repay a debt at 1:1 and now your cost drop to 50% due to a decline the currency. Well that is one major reason for the attack on the dollar. At 1.50 GBP to USD the cost is in favor of the UK debtor..now if you slam the dollar and the exchange goes to 1.75 and your unwinding 5 billion dollars. That is all the currency boys need to motivate them.
Beranke's sold his sole to the devil..and now he is hand cuffed to the freight train that is heading for the cliiff.
So the welfare system that is a failure, the medical care system now is exactly what the democratic congress & president crafted as the ultimate medical insurance safety net...back in the mid 60's The government rules and loop holes were created by government for political gain..and now are ignored as the actual root of "our" problems.
This system is designed to reduce actual amounts of money allowed , defacto denial of health care, as like in any other socialist concept a group of federal paper pushers will tell you what you can or can not get money for in your treatment. Big Brother strikes again. This program forces you to participate, as well as your doctor. Government never has improved or fixed anything...not even the roads.
Toxic debt swaps..some 11Trillion remaining..all wall street ! Were created in US Dollars...so that means they must be unwound in Dollars. But as the currecny wars...slay the USD the cost to unwind then drops big time. Just think if you have to repay a debt at 1:1 and now your cost drop to 50% due to a decline the currency. Well that is one major reason for the attack on the dollar. At 1.50 GBP to USD the cost is in favor of the UK debtor..now if you slam the dollar and the exchange goes to 1.75 and your unwinding 5 billion dollars. That is all the currency boys need to motivate them.
Beranke's sold his sole to the devil..and now he is hand cuffed to the freight train that is heading for the cliiff.
radambe
Member
The deficits are what cause the inflation in the first place. Printing more dollars = dollars that are worth less. And guess what, we only get to spend them after they've had their chance to spend them at the value they were before they printed them up. It's a terrible and disgusting practice that hurts the poor more than anyone else. Funny how the pseudo-socialist champions of "main street vs. wall street" are the leading cause of problems with the US economy (since 1913). When the government spends money they don't have, they steal it from the poor.
End the Fed. HR1207 is a godsend.
Spoks
Well-known
Historically, USA has been able to print up dollar - and thus finance a large deficit, through that other nations peoples have bought up the dollars. Even with a constant increase of the dollar volume on the world currency market, the dollar has still been in demand. Typically, during the 90' the Russians bought huge amount of dollars and stuck the money in the matresses (literally). Now the Russians prefer the Euro. The Euro has become the 'reserve' currency for many people around world with small and uncertain currencies. By this, the regular 'print up' of dollars has now become poisonous to the US economy. Because the dollar is not in demand anymore.
Now Americans have to increase the value of the dollar through their own sweat,- like most peoples of the world. While the Europeans paid in Euros - or Australians payed in A$, will see an appreciation of their currencies and will have a increased purchasing power even if their salaries are constant.
I agree with Olsen and Roger here that the health care reform is vital as a signal to the world that 'now things will change for the better' in USA.
MartinL
MartinL
"Pay down the debt" is sensible advice for individuals overextended on their credit cards (if that's who you mean by "Americans in general.") But it's bad advice (generally) for national economies, especially in times of tight money. If the pay-down argument can open people's adrenalin spigots by suggesting that they are spending my money on welfare, the argument gets legs.
I observe that people who are most passionate about "paying down government debt" are more narrowly motivated to eliminate government programs they don't like than on improving the health of the economy--about which they understand very little.
This last is not a slam or disrespect against my neighbors: elected leaders, economists , and other elites get it wrong much of the time as well. That's what I found so compelling about Posner's essay. No one would call him a doctrinaire liberal, and even in his embrace of Keynesian economics, his caveats and conservative roots show clearly.
As to "buy American." Good luck. That's just sooo not capitalism.
Spoks
Well-known
"Pay down the debt" is sensible advice for individuals overextended on their credit cards (if that's who you mean by "Americans in general.") But it's bad advice (generally) for national economies, especially in times of tight money. If the pay-down argument can open people's adrenalin spigots by suggesting that they are spending my money on welfare, the argument gets legs.
I observe that people who are most passionate about "paying down government debt" are more narrowly motivated to eliminate government programs they don't like than on improving the health of the economy--about which they understand very little.
This last is not a slam or disrespect against my neighbors: elected leaders, economists , and other elites get it wrong much of the time as well. That's what I found so compelling about Posner's essay. No one would call him a doctrinaire liberal, and even in his embrace of Keynesian economics, his caveats and conservative roots show clearly.
As to "buy American." Good luck. That's just sooo not capitalism.
I would not care about what is capitalism or not. Just what is good for the American people. Regardless. Who tells you that it is a bad advice to pay down state/federal debt? Nations like Britain and Russia (Norway, Denmark, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, etc. etc.) has paid down on their governmental debt over many years. Some of these nations (like Singapore and Norway etc.) have huge governmental funds (like Singapore's Temasek) that provide a return that can be used to cover governmental expenses (like Norway's pension fund) that in turn reduces taxes. By this they can reduce taxes and/or offer even better public services for the same taxes paid.
1/3 of an American's taxes goes to paying interest on this huge debt. Sure, you must reduce this debt as soon as possible! Politicians telling you otherwise are not serious!
Increasing governmental debt is a trick to avoid a build-up of a wellfare state. Typical was General Peron of Argentina. A very popular president that destroyed Argentina's economy over a few years. Argentina had to give up some of the best wellfare state programs. The second best alternative is Israel. After several years with different conservative governments, Israel is now broke and totally dependant on US help. - Not many US states get that much money as Israel gets from the US government. Sweden have had a tug-war between the socialists that pays down on debt and the conservatives that increases it as soon as they have the power. The conservative government of Sweden have increased Sweden's debt by 300 billion SEK in three years. All of it given away as tax reductions to the 2,5% richest people in Sweden - some of the richest people in the world. And then USA....
I could go on....
Olsen
Well-known
A far more serious problem is Norwegian national soccer. It is now so bad that the our national football association are planning to hire a Swedish coach.
What a humiliation!
What a humiliation!
dimitris
Established
Well i don't know if anyone has noticed but Phase One has announced a medium format digital camera for lower than the M9 will go. I know if different camera for different users but...
pmu
Well-known
Let the dollar sink so I can order my M9 from US and do this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH6hunP4_2k&
I will turn up the volume and unbox my M9 while dancing with that music!
I will turn up the volume and unbox my M9 while dancing with that music!
MartinL
MartinL
It's hard to generalize from the wide list of governments, economies, ideologies, that you provide. The lesson that we can take from that list is that there are a great many ways that governments "provide for the general welfare." And there is increasing agreement that the American way, when it comes to health care, pensions, job security, and so forth, sucks.
One way of reducing the percentage of taxes that goes to pay off the debt (actually, "one-third" is more of a talking point than a meaningful calculation) is to increase the percentage of what Americans actually pay in taxes (it's far below what's paid in lots or all of the countries you cite.) Pay taxes comparable to what other countries pay, and the percentage that goes to debt starts to look less dramatic.
"Paying down the debt" is not, generally, a policy these countries follow(ed.) It has been more like slowing the rate of increase of debt (having something to do with "deficits") while the ratio of the country's debt-to-wealth improved. Somewhat like during the Clinton years. Clinton showed how an administration can do OK with the country's bottom line, but still fail to distribute the country's wealth more fairly.
Finally,
Could be that Americans would do a better job of judging what is good for themselves if they cared more about "what is capitalism."
Spoks
Well-known
It is hardly possible for an American to buy in the private market a state funded by-law-performing pension like the ones that Swedes, Norwegians, Fins (etc.etc.) take for granted. To take one example.
It would go just as fast to reduce the federal debt as you have spent time building it up. You would be amazed at how small contributions that would mean on the individual tax payers hand.
I have great belief in the general judgement of ordinary Americans. But I am far less optimistic about how this judgement can be expressed with your current political system. It is all too dominated by big business and a small elite. Corrupt, to put it bluntly.
MartinL
MartinL
Ordinary Americans are, well . . ., ordinary; their judgment pretty closely mirrors that of their elected leaders and persons of greater wealth and influence.
It's useful to distinguish among individual corruption, a political "system," and what Europeans often understand better than Americans, hegemony. Being culturally individualistic, Americans believe that their actions and those within their governing system are based on "rational choice" ----a kind of cost-benefit analysis in all aspects of their lives.
Rational choice has also been the bedrock of American (and increasingly, world) economic theory. It's tightly interwoven with free-market capitalism. Wealth and well-being are the product of freely-made marketplace decisions, but only if markets are unencumbered from "interference."
The problem is not that average Americans suffer at the hands of the elites; it that they agree with the elites. As long as so many believe that they need less government, they won't get good government.
Ranchu
Veteran
Good stuff from IRA (not that one).
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=383
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=383
Spoks
Well-known
First of all; I am allergic to just every 'ism' you can find, from comm- to cap.. Just make a system that serves the people!
"Wealth and well-being are the product of freely-made marketplace decisions, but only if markets are unencumbered from "interference.".."
- That is the sort of crap that 'the wealthy' wants you to believe in.
" their judgement pretty closely mirrors that of their elected leaders and persons of greater wealth and influence.."
- No, they don't. That is part of the problem. While all senators are millionaires while the 'ordinary' American can't pay his credit card bills. Which reflects a corrupt system. Corrupt politicians we have up to our necks here in Europe too, but you don't have to be a millionaire to be elected.
MartinL
MartinL
First, regarding the "crap" you (or I ) cite: we're more in agreement than you might think. I'll stand by my sketchy description of the prevailing and dominant argument in American economic thought. This is not what I believe is Good or what I was advocating. It's the problem--what progressives are up against. My fault for not making that clearer.
IMO, "isms" are the starting for asking for an explanation, a theory that makes systems coherent to others even if I dispute them. My view is that you have to think about democracy before you can do democracy. Your admonition that follows seems unlikely to help in that pursuit. I'd not say that my admonitions are any better (my political / economic following is not large.)
I've heard this spoken by politicians of every stripe. Getting specific, I'd say (in economic terms) let's make a system that distributes wealth with less disparity; begin by targeting help and resources to traditionally under served groups. To move toward justice and equality (both!) and away from injustice and inequality, redistribution is necessary. But that is something that average or "ordinary" Americans will not (at this moment) tolerate------even many (most?) of those who can't pay their credit card bills, who lack health care, have been booted from jobs, etc. This was my reference to hegemony. Complicated to pursue that piece of the argument.
) cite: we're more in agreement than you might think. I'll stand by my sketchy description of the prevailing and dominant argument in American economic thought. This is not what I believe is Good or what I was advocating. It's the problem--what progressives are up against. My fault for not making that clearer. IMO, "isms" are the starting for asking for an explanation, a theory that makes systems coherent to others even if I dispute them. My view is that you have to think about democracy before you can do democracy. Your admonition that follows seems unlikely to help in that pursuit. I'd not say that my admonitions are any better (my political / economic following is not large.)
I've heard this spoken by politicians of every stripe. Getting specific, I'd say (in economic terms) let's make a system that distributes wealth with less disparity; begin by targeting help and resources to traditionally under served groups. To move toward justice and equality (both!) and away from injustice and inequality, redistribution is necessary. But that is something that average or "ordinary" Americans will not (at this moment) tolerate------even many (most?) of those who can't pay their credit card bills, who lack health care, have been booted from jobs, etc. This was my reference to hegemony. Complicated to pursue that piece of the argument.
Spoks
Well-known
That is very unfortunate. This is the big difference of the Great Depression of the 30' and today; this general lack of solidarity that was typical of the 30'. - of which, say, John Steinbeck's 'Grapes of Wreath' is a testament to.
MartinL
MartinL
This has been an interesting thread to follow and participate on. I hope it continues. I'll check in again in 2+ weeks to see what I missed. Off tomorrow for Egypt, South Africa, and Mozambique. Maybe some photos but mostly listen and talk (probably too little of the former and too much. . .)
Roger Hicks
Veteran
You nail the part of populism that is "relational." That is, the value of my Good thing (health insurance, income, camera) rises or falls in relation to your good thing. I'm perfectly happy with my 10 mp, but it really p,,,es me off that you've got 18. (you see? this really was about photography all along
Dear Martin,
Brilliant!
Have fun on your travels, as best you can.
Tashi delek,
R.
Spoks
Well-known
This has been an interesting thread to follow and participate on. I hope it continues. I'll check in again in 2+ weeks to see what I missed. Off tomorrow for Egypt, South Africa, and Mozambique. Maybe some photos but mostly listen and talk (probably too little of the former and too much. . .)
Wish it was me. I have never been to these countries. Have good trip!