chuckroast
Well-known
China couldn't remotely do this. They are a dangerous paper tiger, deeply in debt, with a tremendous decline in population.
tariffs are real
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chuckroast
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But "trading nations" do not, only the US does, and that was my point. The US taxpayer is paying a hidden tariff to support this sevice for all trading nations.
The world's other Navies are incapable of projecting the ongoing global presence to do this widely.
wlewisiii
Veteran
The US won't much longer - our current yards are incapable of continuing to build modern ships acceptably (look up Ward Carrol on youtube) and the economics of it interfere with massive tax cuts to the .001% class. Modernization programs are being cut left and right because of that for ground, air and naval forces. Even some of the best older gear (the A-10) is being forcibly retired to save money for tax cuts and to fund ICE. NASA just took another massive hit as well and that will severely impact the military.
The Chinese are currently in an economic slump but they will recover because they are the only ones in a position to pick up the pieces being left on the table by the US and Russian Federation governments; all they have to do is wait.
Whether the Barbary pirates in the early 1800s or the Houthis 200+ years later, some things never change.
wlewisiii
Veteran
Agreed. What does change is who, and how, they are responded to.
When the government is run by cowards, the pirates win.
DownUnder
Vamoosed (for a while)
Yes. Some of us are even waiting for the day when Beijing decides to revive the Kodachrome process...
The difference between China and most of the West is, as I see it, Asian cultures generally plan for fifty years or a century down the track - the Japanese are especially adept at this and Beijing even with the massive economic problems China is now facing has been doing the same - as against most business in the western world look to the next year's or even the next quarter's (= three months) profit, and not a lot further.
We see this especially in ground-base businesses like real estate where much of the available housing stock in Australia is being snapped up by self-managed superannuation (= pension) fund managers for their portfolios. This is pushing up the house prices and also rentals as they want maximum financial returns for their investments. So we see crappy one bedroom apartments in country towns going for $300 a week, with dire consequences for lower income renters such as the unemployed, disabled and retirees dependent on small government payments who now face having to pay up to half or more of their income in rent.
I have long believed all this will end badly. Maybe when climate change really impacts on our environment as it's now starting to do. The race to the bottom is already well on the way. Unfortunately, the planning to deal with this isn't...
chuckroast
Well-known
d_c
Well-known
I don’t think we should be rosy eyed about the reasons the US has chosen to project its power on the global stage - it hasn’t been for philanthropic reasons or to help the little guy. Successive administrations have understood the benefits that could be had for them both in terms of their domestic interests and the way in which it has extended US political and economic influence. America’s problem now is that they have an administration that knows the cost of everything but the value of nothing.
chuckroast
Well-known
Read the book above for a nonpartisan understanding of global trade.
When nearly every county except the big cities voted for what we have now, it exposes an elephant in the room no one wants to confront: How very awful was the opposition that made it possible for this administration to be multiply elected? This was not a fluke, but the clear will of the people. The question is why.
wlewisiii
Veteran
To answer that last question would take this conversation to places that the mods really don't want it to go.
As for Peter Zeihan, he's just the latest catastrophist. Empires come and go but trade always remains. Even after the Late Bronze Age collapse of 1177 BCE trade didn't go away. America is going away as an empire as did the UK after WWII, for many of the same reasons. I believe that it will be the Chinese that will pick up the pieces and be even less benevolent than the iron fist of the US was.
It's a good time for moving to Europe for an educated American.
As for Peter Zeihan, he's just the latest catastrophist. Empires come and go but trade always remains. Even after the Late Bronze Age collapse of 1177 BCE trade didn't go away. America is going away as an empire as did the UK after WWII, for many of the same reasons. I believe that it will be the Chinese that will pick up the pieces and be even less benevolent than the iron fist of the US was.
It's a good time for moving to Europe for an educated American.
DownUnder
Vamoosed (for a while)
An interesting comment. I have friends in Australia - academics and business executives with impressive resumes and heaps of valuable if no longer greatly valued experience and expertise in their chosen fields - who are now applying for and picking up jobs in universities, think tanks and global businesses in Asia.
Some are going to university positions in China. I haven't yet caught up to those who have left to ask about salaries and work conditions, but on the whole they seem to be satisfied with the offers they were made. For them the main goal was to leave a country where education seems to be no longer valued if it doesn't print in quick profits for the employers or the factory-line universities offering quick degrees.
Friends in New Zealand say the same is happening in that country. The traditional escape hatch for Kiwis has long been to Australia, but it seems the NZ'ers are now looking further afield for job opportunities and better salaries.
I retired from one of those stagnant industries (architecture) in 2012 and I have no wish to return to the hamster wheel of modern business. But it does concern me that the brain drain from the west to Asia is growing so quickly. This does not augur well for the medium- to long-term future of countries with little global influence like Australia.
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