Does anyone here actually have some real, concrete knowledge of what is required to run an economically viable film production plant? I imagine it to be a lot more complex and difficult procedure than pressing vinyl albums, which seems to me to be the best analogy that's been used so far. But I could be completely wrong. Anyone?
Hard number to prove through regression.
Vinyl and film are not synonymous. Film is phenomenally more difficult to produce and package to high quality standards because almost all must be done in the dark.
My hunch trough some economics of prior industry performance is film sales totalling near US$150 million at today's nominal values, not factoring in motion picture industry sales. This would keep a few production lines open, but the operational and recap costs would be considerably higher, so look at film prices to increase proportionately.
Alongside this will be required output of about a hundred thousand new film cameras every year. That number has already fallen off a cliff, so the bigger worry is recap there, especially with the variety of designs necessary, from pinhole (cheap) to MF SLR (expensive).
Processing and printing equipment is also an issue. Home darkroom stuff may be made for quite some time, but I'd expect costs to soar as demand weakens. Variety will also be substantially curtailed. Mini-labs,critical to colour processing, are also problematic.
Without colour film B&W takes a massive affordability hit as by far most people prefer colour as does the cinema industry. The problem for B&W is the emulsions and substrate and shared chemicals and manufacturing systems rely on a joint economy-of-scale. Take colour out of the production runs and B&W home hobbyists have to shoulder 100% of the costs of esoteric equipment plus recap and technical training.
Film is an industrial process requiring a substantial market to amortize investments and operational costs. Where the tipping point numbers lie is anyone's guess right now. I made mine. I will however go on the record as saying all 135 and 120 and LF film are endangered if the mini-lab colour systems fold. I cannot see even a single factory running to produce these films for a hobby market of home developers. These processes take hundreds of employees with idiosyncratic tech know-how. They will not be able to economically produce mass manufacture film for garage darkrooms. The gap between capital and demand is substantial in most scenarios I look at.
