BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum
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raid
Dad Photographer
Hm. These are questionable statistical analyses here.
In an democracy, only votes that were cast count. People deciding not to vote lose their rights to decide a poll if they don't vote.
52% of the total number of votes is what it is. The majority.
Taking 52% of the portion (voting for BREXIT)/(Total number of potential voters but who did not really all vote) is not very meaningful.
Therefore, 38% x 52% means very little here.
In an democracy, only votes that were cast count. People deciding not to vote lose their rights to decide a poll if they don't vote.
52% of the total number of votes is what it is. The majority.
Taking 52% of the portion (voting for BREXIT)/(Total number of potential voters but who did not really all vote) is not very meaningful.
Therefore, 38% x 52% means very little here.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Eh? Would you care to explain what you mean by that?
For that matter, can you explain what you mean by that?
Cheers,
R.
raid
Dad Photographer
I am staying out of the political discussions here. I chat about statistics.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
You are indisputably right, but the unfortunate part is that they don't also lose their rights to whine about the results.
Cheers,
R.
David Hughes
David Hughes
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Even then, the statistics are a political question, because democracy comes in many flavours. In classical Greek democracy, it wasn't just children who couldn't vote: slaves and women were excluded too. Then there's the question of the age at which one becomes an adult (bar/bat mitzvah?, 16? 18? 21?) and whether in this case those under (say) 30 should have two votes, because they'll be affected longer.
Cheers,
R.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
David Hughes
David Hughes
Got it! All I have to do is get my French friends to adopt me but that might be difficult as they are 10-15 years younger...
Seriously, I'm amazed at the number of people who have mentioned to me that they've Irish grand-parents and are thinking about dual nationality.
Regards, David
Seriously, I'm amazed at the number of people who have mentioned to me that they've Irish grand-parents and are thinking about dual nationality.
Regards, David
Spanik
Well-known
Strange they can publish this AFTER the poll...
raid
Dad Photographer
You would think that such a concise summary for the options would have made some difference.
Beemermark
Veteran
Unfortunately the pound is still 30% higher than the US dollar (which like it or not is still the world's standard). So I'll be looking for a house in the Caribbean.
Beemermark
Veteran
I agree, let's do away with elections and parliaments and get back to Kings (and Queens) or just good old dictators. Life would be so much simpler.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Eh? It's prices that matter, not the size of the unit of reckoning. A house at $100,000 or 90,000€ or £75,000 or 10 million yen still costs much the same (obviously I'm using rounded exchange rates and numbers).
Cheers,
R.
Last edited:
raid
Dad Photographer
I agree with Roger. I often hear statements about "the US Dollar is worth x times so and so currency" as if this were meaningful. The buying power relative to the income is the important factor. If the EURO is 1.11 US $, this does not mean that Europeans using the EURO are 11% wealthier than Americans.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
The constantly varying relationship between different units of currency is nothing to do with the size of the unit of reckoning.
In fact, it really only matters much if you're speculating (which is why it varies so much and so rapidly) or if your income is in other currencies than the one(s) you spend. The value of the euro against the dollar or pound has no effect whatsoever on the value of my house, for example.
Cheers,
R.
raid
Dad Photographer
The value of the currency matters to me mostly when we travel to another country. Once, the US $ was worth EURO 1.20, and on another trip, it was the other way around. Such changes have an effect on the buying power in the country where we travel. I try to compensate (when the $ is down) by pre-paying with $ from the US. The global market (internet) also can be helpful in minimizing the loss of buying power as hotels and rental car companies and flight companies target the (large) US market.
David Hughes
David Hughes
Hi,
You don't have to as you can buy - or rather - earmark funds at an agreed rate for future use. (Or hide wads of cash under the mattress... )
Talking of holiday money, the biggest mistake people make is to cash in the left over money at the end of the holiday.
Regards, David
raid
Dad Photographer
Living in the USA is often a matter of balancing loans. You make more money, so you get a larger loan to get something nicer (home or car or ...).
zauhar
Veteran
Amongst all the interesting arguments about the roles of racist nationalism and economic disintegration in the Brexit vote, I came upon this little gem from one of the European pundits in the New York Times:
"We can still repair the damage done to democracy in our rush to move beyond national borders by admitting to the problems. If, for instance, European internal migrants really have lowered the wages in Britain, this is a serious problem. But it can be dealt with through, say, stricter control of the labor market — not abandonment of the entire framework for European cooperation."
Gosh, did all those Southern and Eastern Europeans moving in depress wages? Who would have expected that?
Oh I know who - Americans, who didn't worry so much about the influx of low-wage labor and the deterioration of the trade unions until their lousy office job got outsourced. It was nice to have an undocumented worker mowing your lawn and fixing the roof, but now that you are cast down with the rabble you get a new perspective on who your enemies are.
Unfortunately, amongst the poorly educated who have only a dim view of their place in the world, the new enemy is not the corporate executives who sent their job to India, the new enemy is their rabble-mate. And if that poor schmuck just recently moved to the hood, that's really bad.
Racism and hatred of the other is part of our Original Sin (sorry to use such a quaint term). I do not expect more of 'common people' whether they are in the US, the UK or France. When their way of life is eroded, it is human reflex to cast a sour eye on the newcomer who is now competing for your livelihood, and who looks different and speaks a foreign language.
But when educated people claim to be above these impulses, they are lying to themselves. My university colleagues happily live in the rainbow world of academia - after all, they are in their globalized comfort zone, with friendly (or at least 'collegial') PhDs from around the world, well-behaved students of every race and orientation. But in my experience, I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of people from my university who reside in the city and actually live day-to-day with a broad spectrum of humanity.
They are hypocrites - they will bristle if you bring this up to them. It's all about the kids!
They need a good school system! But the fact is that many are afraid to venture far away from the campus on foot. One lady in our administration was afraid to go to a spice shop not far from here because she 'might get shot'. (For anyone listening in from Philly, the shop in question was near the corner of 42nd & Walnut, and we're talking broad daylight.) Was that a rational reaction? No, in the back of her mind she has a boogey man waiting for her at every corner. But she would never use the 'N word' - that would be an admission of an unfortunate impulse she would rather not expose. And someone might report her to Human Resources!
So I have been really fascinated by some of the comments about this. There seems a desperate refusal to understand that people are on the edge because their lives and expectations are falling apart, and yeah, their natural tendencies to racism and xenophobia will be exacerbated. Did you expect anything else?
The young people in Britain are joining in the condemnation of their elders, mainly because they have no perspective from a time when human labor was better-respected and valued. (And THAT was a hard-won battle that has been totally lost again.) One young lady on the 'pro-remain' side was quoted in the Times; she had finally got a job - as a barista - after searching for a year, and was arguing with her mother over the vote. With the exit from the EU she might not even have that much! Is that any more pathetic than our college grads in the US who seem to be expected - every single one - to take an unpaid 'internship' to have any hope of landing a professional job?
When people are this disrespected, this devalued by an unaccountable elite, they will take it only so long. Truly, they have become 'human resources', just stuff to be used up so someone can make a profit.
I am planning a trip to Europe next year, the pound will probably still be down and at least part of the stay should be inexpensive. (By the way, won't the weak GBP help increase exports? One of youse above was bemoaning that Britain relied on exports to your EU partners.) I will also cross the channel and see how things look in France. The French are not as well-behaved as US and UK citizens, they have been striking and rioting in a desperate attempt to maintain what they have. And yeah, they too will start to look at foreigners with fear and derision, they are made of the same stuff as all the rest of us.
The prescriptions of that NY Times journalist - labor protections, etc - would have made sense, but that would only have happened if the people at the top ever paid more than a moment's notice to the rabble they lord over. As it stands now, the advice is a buck short and a day late.
Randy
"We can still repair the damage done to democracy in our rush to move beyond national borders by admitting to the problems. If, for instance, European internal migrants really have lowered the wages in Britain, this is a serious problem. But it can be dealt with through, say, stricter control of the labor market — not abandonment of the entire framework for European cooperation."
Gosh, did all those Southern and Eastern Europeans moving in depress wages? Who would have expected that?
Oh I know who - Americans, who didn't worry so much about the influx of low-wage labor and the deterioration of the trade unions until their lousy office job got outsourced. It was nice to have an undocumented worker mowing your lawn and fixing the roof, but now that you are cast down with the rabble you get a new perspective on who your enemies are.
Unfortunately, amongst the poorly educated who have only a dim view of their place in the world, the new enemy is not the corporate executives who sent their job to India, the new enemy is their rabble-mate. And if that poor schmuck just recently moved to the hood, that's really bad.
Racism and hatred of the other is part of our Original Sin (sorry to use such a quaint term). I do not expect more of 'common people' whether they are in the US, the UK or France. When their way of life is eroded, it is human reflex to cast a sour eye on the newcomer who is now competing for your livelihood, and who looks different and speaks a foreign language.
But when educated people claim to be above these impulses, they are lying to themselves. My university colleagues happily live in the rainbow world of academia - after all, they are in their globalized comfort zone, with friendly (or at least 'collegial') PhDs from around the world, well-behaved students of every race and orientation. But in my experience, I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of people from my university who reside in the city and actually live day-to-day with a broad spectrum of humanity.
They are hypocrites - they will bristle if you bring this up to them. It's all about the kids!
They need a good school system! But the fact is that many are afraid to venture far away from the campus on foot. One lady in our administration was afraid to go to a spice shop not far from here because she 'might get shot'. (For anyone listening in from Philly, the shop in question was near the corner of 42nd & Walnut, and we're talking broad daylight.) Was that a rational reaction? No, in the back of her mind she has a boogey man waiting for her at every corner. But she would never use the 'N word' - that would be an admission of an unfortunate impulse she would rather not expose. And someone might report her to Human Resources!
So I have been really fascinated by some of the comments about this. There seems a desperate refusal to understand that people are on the edge because their lives and expectations are falling apart, and yeah, their natural tendencies to racism and xenophobia will be exacerbated. Did you expect anything else?
The young people in Britain are joining in the condemnation of their elders, mainly because they have no perspective from a time when human labor was better-respected and valued. (And THAT was a hard-won battle that has been totally lost again.) One young lady on the 'pro-remain' side was quoted in the Times; she had finally got a job - as a barista - after searching for a year, and was arguing with her mother over the vote. With the exit from the EU she might not even have that much! Is that any more pathetic than our college grads in the US who seem to be expected - every single one - to take an unpaid 'internship' to have any hope of landing a professional job?
When people are this disrespected, this devalued by an unaccountable elite, they will take it only so long. Truly, they have become 'human resources', just stuff to be used up so someone can make a profit.
I am planning a trip to Europe next year, the pound will probably still be down and at least part of the stay should be inexpensive. (By the way, won't the weak GBP help increase exports? One of youse above was bemoaning that Britain relied on exports to your EU partners.) I will also cross the channel and see how things look in France. The French are not as well-behaved as US and UK citizens, they have been striking and rioting in a desperate attempt to maintain what they have. And yeah, they too will start to look at foreigners with fear and derision, they are made of the same stuff as all the rest of us.
The prescriptions of that NY Times journalist - labor protections, etc - would have made sense, but that would only have happened if the people at the top ever paid more than a moment's notice to the rabble they lord over. As it stands now, the advice is a buck short and a day late.
Randy
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