Digital camera market is collapsing

[mfunnell]

“Canon was too aggressive with their SLR sales forecast. People who want them have already bought them...”

There's plenty of truth in that: I am a Canon DSLR user and once I hit the point of "sufficiency" for my purposes I haven't bought a new one since 2008. Only now, maybe, perhaps, possibly, am I contemplating buying again. And I still might not.

That doesn't strike me as especially problematic: more like a return to "normal" in that I ask myself "in the film days, how often did we buy a new system-camera body?" In my case, um, once. I bought an OM-4T. I bought a few lenses and a flash. And that was it; and I used them for years (decades, in fact).

I know in some ways this a false parallel in that I still spent in the "photography marketplace" overall - but that was mostly consumables in the form of film, development and printing - and in this new digital world many don't spend much on consumables (I'm different: I spend on ink and paper but I'm old and I print).

That may mean changes: as "sufficiency" is reached (for each individual's value of "sufficient") then purchases will slow or stop (why buy a new camera if your old one's just fine and the new one isn't that much better?), which will lower sales volumes, reduce money available for R&D, increase likely per-unit price and so feed back into "sufficiency". And I've no idea where that will end up, especially without consumables to sustain an "ecosystem" of [mass-market] photography-based sales.

I suspect the business of photography will look very different in 10 years time to the look 10 years ago, just as the digital revolution was starting to ramp up. Note that 10 years ago in 2004 I bought an EOS 300D [aka Digital Rebel] - the same year that Canon released their EOS 30V (which I have, bought for $50 from a pawnbroker in 2007), which was the last "enthusiast grade" film camera Canon released. My how times have changed!

I've no idea what it will look like, but it will be (I'd guess) at least as unrecognisable as 2004 seems from 2014.

...Mike

 

[charjohncarter]

I case you wonder if anyone has read your mini-essay mfunnel. I did and it was a good explanation of what is going on in the photo business world today.

 

[mfunnell]

I case you wonder if anyone has read your mini-essay mfunnel. I did and it was a good explanation of what is going on in the photo business world today.

Why, thank you!

...Mike

 

[NJH]

Honestly I expect that as 4K video becomes more prevalent the digital stills camera will become a thing of history for many folks. If its easy to extract decent 4k stills from the video stream then one has to ask why bother shooting stills except for still life stuff. The sort of people I am talking about are guys like a mate of mine who bought into Canon DSLR eco-system several years ago to photograph his then baby son as he grew up. He had very little interest in taking pictures that don't have people or pets in them and it seems to me that most of the general public is the same.

 

[jsrockit]

Honestly I expect that as 4K video becomes more prevalent the digital stills camera will become a thing of history for many folks. If its easy to extract decent 4k stills from the video stream then one has to ask why bother shooting stills except for still life stuff.

I can see some doing this, but many do not like editing, especially the casual family and friends snapshooter. Editing out one frame from thousands is probably not fun for most.

The sort of people I am talking about are guys like a mate of mine who bought into Canon DSLR eco-system several years ago to photograph his then baby son as he grew up. He had very little interest in taking pictures that don't have people or pets in them and it seems to me that most of the general public is the same.

Yep... it'll be interesting to see how this changes.

 

[jwc57]

I always love reading these threads...always includes interesting perspectives.

My only addition is that I hope that Canon/Nikon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus will view the shrinking digital camera market as an opportunity to advance the availability of affordable digital medium format backs...adaptable to older medium format bodies. I would love to see a quality, digital back that cost less that $10K---prefer half that really--and is capable of being adapted to Rollei, Mamiya RB/RZ/645AF, Hasselblad, Bronica, etc. I enjoy my Bronica S2a with film, but with a digital back? That'd be heaven...or close to it.

 

[btgc]

My only addition is that I hope that Canon/Nikon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus will view the shrinking digital camera market as an opportunity to advance the availability of affordable digital medium format backs...

I wonder - which money will finance this? Cash people previously spent on compacts they replaced yearly and now put into phones? Or from those better cameras which get used much longer? Or taken by those enlightened amateurs who suddenly feel APS-C sensors aren't good enough for them?

That said I believe in large sensors but still want to reason for them to become affordable...which is kind of unclear amount 🙂

 

[furcafe]

IMHO, that's where artificial intelligence will come into play, picking out a selection of stills from the stream, then processing them for the viewer based on known preferences. I think the really big trend is not the decline of cameras as separate devices, but the change in the role of the human, i.e., as capturing images becomes increasingly automatic, most people spend more time editing & directing.

I can see some doing this, but many do not like editing, especially the casual family and friends snapshooter. Editing out one frame from thousands is probably not fun for most.

 

[jwc57]

I wonder - which money will finance this? Cash people previously spent on compacts they replaced yearly and now put into phones? Or from those better cameras which get used much longer? Or taken by those enlightened amateurs who suddenly feel APS-C sensors aren't good enough for them?

That said I believe in large sensors but still want to reason for them to become affordable...which is kind of unclear amount 🙂

Good questions...but I was thinking that there is a market for medium format backs--Mamiya/Phase One, Pentax, and Hasselblad already are in it at the $15,000 to $40,000 range. The design can be unchanged, with only adapter plates changing between camera models.

I admit though, that my feelings about a inexpensive MF digital back's expense was mostly based on the idea that the software and sensor technology was stabilized and R&D expenses wouldn't be as much as they have been in the past when whole cameras had to be designed around a sensor.

Of course it is just a lot of wishful thinking.

 

[dct]

IMHO, that's where artificial intelligence will come into play, picking out a selection of stills from the stream, then processing them for the viewer based on known preferences. I think the really big trend is not the decline of cameras as separate devices, but the change in the role of the human, i.e., as capturing images becomes increasingly automatic, most people spend more time editing & directing.

Just put the cam on continuous record and then walk through the world.
For me it sounds like a new approach to 'spray & pray' technique: isn't it? 🙄

 

[nongfuspring]

Honestly I expect that as 4K video becomes more prevalent the digital stills camera will become a thing of history for many folks. If its easy to extract decent 4k stills from the video stream then one has to ask why bother shooting stills except for still life stuff.

I think this is a really good point, there's been a lot of talk about printing from 4k stills and rumour has it some of the next Panasonics will have 8k. We might have started to plateau on sensor technology but not processing power. Tracking through each frame is not difficult can be made fast and easy, i.e. the scroll tracker in IOS.

Raises some interesting questions about the future of digital street/documentary/reportage photography.

 

[btgc]

Back in the past I've toyed with selecting frames from DV. It was like working for security rather than photography.

 

[Ko.Fe.]

At beginning of nineties Sony has thermal printer to print from Hi8 tape machine 🙂
I still have one print.

4K is double of HD equipment for broadcast industry and no thrills about it. Some of them haven't paid for their HD equipment, yet. Who would have budget for triple?
Where is 3D broadcasting now, I remember to see TV sets for it in big box stores.

Consumer 8K market? With current compression methods Internet and Mobile phone providers would happy to assist you, after you pay higher bill, of course.

 

[shadowfox]

IMHO, that's where artificial intelligence will come into play, picking out a selection of stills from the stream, then processing them for the viewer based on known preferences. I think the really big trend is not the decline of cameras as separate devices, but the change in the role of the human, i.e., as capturing images becomes increasingly automatic, most people spend more time editing & directing.

If this ever happen in my lifetime that I cannot use a still camera anymore, I will stop photographing and take up bowling, or cooking.

 

[jsrockit]

If this ever happen in my lifetime that I cannot use a still camera anymore, I will stop photographing and take up bowling, or cooking.

I will just go back to using film...as long as that's still around.

 

[Pioneer]

Ever since Chicken Little people have loved doom and gloom stories. It is great fun...unless it actually happens.

People have been coming up with better and better ways to record images since the Paleolithic times. I doubt this love of images will roll over and die real soon. It may change, but it will always be here in some form or another. Photography is part of that.

 

[nongfuspring]

4K is double of HD equipment for broadcast industry and no thrills about it. Some of them haven't paid for their HD equipment, yet. Who would have budget for triple?
Where is 3D broadcasting now, I remember to see TV sets for it in big box stores.

Consumer 8K market? With current compression methods Internet and Mobile phone providers would happy to assist you, after you pay higher bill, of course.

Seriously? What does 3D have to do with anything? Both Vimeo and Youtube already support 4k, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-GYrbecb88&feature=youtu.be

Also, 4K (as the name implies) is 4 times the resolution of 1080p HD. http://petapixel.com/2014/04/14/care-4k/

A 4k still is equivalent to 10 megapixel photo, and 8k will be double that again, the same full resolution as most current cameras around today. I hardly see how that's irrelevant to photographers - it's like having a 60FPS camera with no buffer time, now wether that is useful to you personally or not is a different issue.

 

[semilog]

Seriously? What does 3D have to do with anything? Both Vimeo and Youtube already support 4k, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-GYrbecb88&feature=youtu.be

Also, 4K (as the name implies) is 4 times the resolution of 1080p HD. http://petapixel.com/2014/04/14/care-4k/

A 4k still is equivalent to 10 megapixel photo, and 8k will be double that again, the same full resolution as most current cameras around today…

That's linear resolution. If 4k is equivalent to 10 Mpix, 8k is equivalent to 100 Mpix -- with commensurate pressure on data and signal processing pipelines.

 

[Dirk]

The growth of phone photography confirms two principles.

The first has nothing to do with photography. Convenience trumps quality.

This is the iPod effect where compressed, low-quailty content became acceptable due to ease of use. By now improvements in compression algorithms and the decrease in mobile memory costs have restored some of the quality. For some photographers, the preference for JPEG over raw is similar. But I do only mention this on;y to point out the parallel. I do not mean to criticize or disparage JPEG users. After all, I often listen to compressed audio content. I also listen to to .AIFF audio content on my smart phone and tablet as well.

Second, the commercial success of phone photography proves content trumps technical quality.

Phone photos are meant to be shared. For the most part phone photos are not intended to be viewed in the future. They are simply visual text messages. Quantity (the ability to take a photo and share it with very little effort) trumps quality. For better or worse, this is how the majority of photography has been done since the advent of micro-circutry. People would buy a compact 35 mm camera for birthdays, holidays, trips and other special events. The percentage of film used to create art or documentary records was small compared to images that resemble the majority of phone photos taken today. The only difference is more of these throw-away, one-time use photos are made. In casual conversation ask your friends how many photos survive from their childhood? Ask them when was the last time they saw the 35mm compact-camera photos from their tenth birthday. If you ever talk to people who buy abandoned storage lockers, ask them how many photos, slides and negatives they have dumped in the trash.

Very well said. The fact that convenience trumps quality and content trumps quality is actually healthy and normal. In fact, that's how it should be for photography as an art form to flourish. That the image shows the subject, tells a story and connects emotionally with the viewer is what matters. It is only a vanishingly small minority of professional photographers and freaks like us who obsess about technical details and minute differences in things like coma, purple fringing, noise, etc.

 

[Monochrom]

Muy interesante!

PErhaps cameras are giving good results to their owners and they don´t feel like changng that often...for sure cell phoens are also behind this!