Digital camera market is collapsing

[semilog]

Nikon and Olympus both have thriving medical and research imaging divisions. Nearly everyone I know in life sciences is buying Nikon and Olympus microscopes. Very few are buying Zeiss or Leica, these days. The Japanese optics are as good, sometimes better, and the Nikon and Olympus frames are better designed for the needs of actual researchers -- whether they are using turnkey systems, or building highly customized rigs.

In addition to consumer and medical optics, Nikon makes steppers for the semiconductor industry.

Let's not get too overwrought: if Canon and Sony and Panasonic never sold another camera, ever again, they'd still exist. Big time. I think Ricoh/Pentax would probably be fine too, though they'd take a larger hit. I'd like to say the same for Olympus but their state is, ummmm, let's just say they're still recovering from something well outside the camera business per se. Of the major Japanese camera companies I'd say it's Nikon under the largest threat in a falling camera market. Yet I don't really think they're threatened at all...

Korea? Let's just say "Samsung".

And while, closer to home, Leica Camera AG would fairly obviously go bust if they couldn't sell cameras, I doubt their business model is especially threatened by smartphones. (Nor, back in Japan, is Cosina Voigtlander as a not-phone-threatened niche player close to the collective hearts of RFF.)

And so on. As Douglas Adams once advised Don't Panic.

...Mike

 

[shadowfox]

I will just go back to using film...as long as that's still around.

In the hypothetical situation that I mentioned above, film is no longer around 🙂

Otherwise, heck yeah, I'd gladly ditch digital and continue to use film.

 

[Out to Lunch]

Digital camera market is collapsing

Since when have average photographers become MBA specialists able to understand and read this particular global multi-billion US Dollar market? My advice: go out and take/share some pictures.

 

[Aristophanes]

according to flickr statistics the majority of photos uploaded are taken with handphone cameras: https://www.flickr.com/cameras

I wonder if the widespread use of cameraphones eventually could again strenghten 'dedicated' camera sales: I suppose that many people who take photos with handphone will not have been that keen taking many photos before. Some, through the 'entry' to photography using their handphone, must become interested in photography. Some will come to understand the limitations of a handphone camera and will want e.g. a camera with a bigger sensor

That is exactly how the market has always worked.

People not happy with the Brownie invested in a Rolleiflex.

People not happy with the Instamatic got an Olympus 35RC.

Usually, people kept both.

It is NOT an either/or market. Most households owned more than one camera in the film days.

Some even had their own darkrooms. 😀

Where I live there is no local capacity to either buy or process film. It has moved to all mail order.

 

[uhoh7]

Check what this guy can do with his iPod touch:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3939/15677422122_619a3a82f1_b.jpg

 

[Darshan]

Tracking. Videos show up as a string of images under the main video image, and you run your finger along that line until you find a suitable frame. It's best shown by example than explained. Longer youtube videos also sort of have a low-fi this feature, you hover your mouse over the video position bar and get a preview of that frame in the video (without actually moving to that point in the video). The iphone (or Aftereffects) version of this is better since the videos are cached. Admittedly if you're trawling through a 12 hour video it'll take some time, but if you're working with a video shorter than an hour or so then it should be very doable, and if you're doing short videos of a few seconds it makes a more user friendly alternative to continuous mode (since you're not dealing with sorting through individual frames).

That is to say you go to Paris/Rome/NYC/Bombay etc. and eat at all restaurants - you are certainly going to find the best food..😀😀

 

[Pioneer]

Since when have average photographers become MBA specialists able to understand and read this particular global multi-billion US Dollar market? My advice: go out and take/share some pictures.

What do ya mean...I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night. Of course I'm qualified.

Not to mention I are a RFF member in semi-good standing. 😀

 

[HHPhoto]

Digital camera crisis

Digital camera crisis

Hi,

being the OP I am quite astonished about so much reactions and replies.

Of course I cannot reply to everyone.
Therefore I will focus on the most important facts:

1. Status of the digital camera industry:
Some here said that there is no crisis. That is quite blind and naive, and ignoring the real numbers.
There is indeed a very severe crisis. The digital bubble has burst:
The market crashed on only half (!) of its former size in only 3 years. That is an even bigger crash than film had some years ago.
And not only the sales crashed, but also the margins for manufacturers and distributors. It is extremely difficult to earn (sufficient) money with digital cameras.

Lots of the Asian OEM manufacturers for digital compact cameras (DSC) had to quit the market and fired employees.
The manufacturers expect the market to further decrease down to only 20-30 million units p.a..
That will result in further companies leaving the market.

2. Reasons for the sales crash:
- smartphones are significantly hurting the DSC market, but the smartphone bubble will burst in 2-3 years
- the whole digital camera market (DSC, mirror-less and DSLR) is completely oversaturated, because the market was totally flooded for more than a decade with digital cameras
- because of this giant over-supply the used market is hurting sales of new cameras in a significant way
- new cameras offer only very tiny advantages compared to their forerunners; but higher quality cameras still cost a little fortune: Customers realize how extremely expensive it is to upgrade, and how little additional value they get
- Customers realize that buying a new camera in a 2-3 year time span sums up to a very big fortune, with very little benefit for them
- Customers realize that they have spend so much on digital gear in the last 10-12 years that it is more than two whole photographer lifes of film
- if you want a better sensor, you have to buy a complete new camera; with film you just change the film and keep your camera
- most serious photograpers are completely tired of the digital upgrading rat race.

3. Status of the film industry:
Some here said the film industry is in an even more problematic situation.
The facts do say otherwise:
- instant film is making a big comeback with significant increasing sales; Fuji had to increase their capacities to satisfy the demand
- Professional film sales have started to stabilise, some types are already increasing
- RA-4 silver-halide paper is making a strong comeback with increasing sales; Fuji has increased its R&D funding in this field
- InovisCoat in Germany has built a new, modern, right-sized film/paper factory and are producing colour and BW materials for different customers
- Ilford is building a new, modernised factory in the next two years; investing a double-digit million sum in Brit. Pounds
- Film Ferrania is restructuring and modernising its factory and will start film production next year
- new cameras for film were introduced this Photokina, and there were lots information there that more camera manufacturers will follow: very good news for our bartender Stephen 🙂.

Film will be the "new Vinyl".
Vinyl sales hit the bottom in 1993. Since then the sales have increased by a factor of 20 (!!).
Film is cool again.

Cheers, Jan

 

[Pherdinand]

this discussion went dangerously close to a Black Mirror episode.

 

[jsrockit]

Who is the more serious photographer? David Alan Harvey with an iPhone, or the average DP review member with a D810 and an Otus?

Talk to me when DAH only uses an iPhone.

 

[HHPhoto]

Your facts are probably true enough, but if I wanted to go to a completely film workflow today, it would simply be impossible (on so many levels from emulsion availability to the cost of real estate) -- which for me is really the bottom line. How do you work once the "negative" is produced?

Hi,

to answer your question: My personal film workflows:

1. BW negative film: I develop the film by myself and make real silver-gelatin prints in my own darkroom. Best quality and most fun for BW negative, much better quality compared to scanning (no scanner can match the resolution of my APO-Rodagons).

2. Colour negative film: Send out via mail to a professional lab for film development and prints. Or I use one of my local labs. Both labs are excellent.

3. BW transparency and colour transparency: Send out via mail to an excellent professional lab for development.
Already two days later I have my films back in outstanding quality.
The transparencies are viewed
- on the light table with an excellent slide loupe from Schneider-Kreuznach
- projected on the screen with excellent slide projectors from Leica and Rollei (both 35mm and medium format)

Best quality and most fun for BW and colour transparency, much better quality compared to scanning (no scanner can match the resolution, sharpness and contrast of my projection lenses).
Tranparencies deliver outstanding quality at lowest prices.

- sometimes I make direct prints from the transparencies on BW direct positive paper in my own lab; they have a unique tonality.

My film workflow is today easier and more convenient compared to the time I've started photography about 30 years ago:
- the labs do care more today for their customers, the quality is much better
- mails order service is better today, too
- lab prices are lower today if you consider inflation (at least here in Germany).

Cheers, Jan

 

[Sparrow]

... what goes around, comes around I suppose

 

[jsrockit]

Film will be the "new Vinyl".
Vinyl sales hit the bottom in 1993. Since then the sales have increased by a factor of 20 (!!).
Film is cool again.

6 million vinyl records sold in 2013 in the US, or in other words, vinyl accounted for 2% of music sales in 2013 in the US.

To me, digital cameras will travel on a similar path as computers... and personal computers have sold for 30 years. The upgrade path will be similar.

 

[jsrockit]

- the labs do care more today for their customers, the quality is much better
- mails order service is better today, too

You're kidding right? Perhaps Germany does this better... but you cannot say this categorically.

 

[Michael Markey]

Same in the UK ... the service is mediocre at best.
Even from Ilford .

 

[css9450]

3. BW transparency and colour transparency: Send out via mail to an excellent professional lab for development.
Already two days later I have my films back in outstanding quality.

My film workflow is today easier and more convenient compared to the time I've started photography about 30 years ago:
- the labs do care more today for their customers, the quality is much better
- mails order service is better today, too
- lab prices are lower today if you consider inflation (at least here in Germany).

Its completely the opposite in the US.

 

[bwcolor]

I say, use the best tool for the job and based on desired outcome and convenience, the cellphone comes out in first place for most.

I guess that the (film shooters)/(dedicated camera shooters) ratio will increase. Who saw that one coming?

 

[HHPhoto]

6 million vinyl records sold in 2013 in the US, or in other words, vinyl accounted for 2% of music sales in 2013 in the US.

Yes, I know the numbers.
If film would develop in a similar way, and about 2% of all photographers (including all snapshooters) would use film in the future, that would result in a very huge increase in film sales.
Because currently much less than 2% of all photographers are using film.
I do not expect such an increase.
I think it is realistic that in the long term 3-6% of the serious amateur and professional photographers will use film.
That would be more than enough for a very healthy and strong film business including bigger manufacturers like Fujifilm and Kodak.
And it would mean a very significant increase in film demand from the current level.
I am convinced film will be a strong and attractive niche in the future.
Small compared to digital, but quite big in absolute terms.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

You're kidding right? Perhaps Germany does this better... but you cannot say this categorically.

No, I am not kidding, not at all.
There are lots of excellent labs, all over the world.
Is the lab infrastructure in the Germany the best?
Probably.
But that does not mean there are no excellent labs in other countries.
Just have a look here where rff members report about excellent labs
(this thread is about E6 labs, but most of the mentioned labs are also developing C41 and BW):

http://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137289

I guess those who are bashing the labs have never tried one of the mentioned labs.
Lots of people are just too lazy to try out other labs.

Cheers, Jan

 

[VertovSvilova]

I have no problem in Los Angeles getting excellent film processing, drum scanning, printing (all types), etc.. Prices have gone up a bit over the years but no more than anything else. The only big change was when one company decided to shut down some of their 'open until midnite' lab locations and one rental agency that also sold film used to be open 24hrs/7 days a week. But that happened years ago.