Digital camera market is collapsing

[Aristophanes]

- for real medium format: film will stay as the medium with the best price-performance ratio, and affordable for everyone.

Cheers, Jan

Except Fuji just cancelled manufacture of their 670 medium format camera.

None of their P&S models are now available outside Japan though normal channel.

Processing and scanning is so rapidly disappearing from North America and Asian markets and satellite markets that surplus lab equipment is going to salvage and landfills. The chain I used to work for no longer accepts film and has no processing agreements anymore (no money in it, and no film sales), but they sell a lot of photo products through dry print digital. And don't get me on about the state of the scanner market.

 

[HHPhoto]

Would love some suggestions, then.

Have a look in our film-subforum....
voilà:
http://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137289

A whole thread with recommendations for excellent labs 🙂.
And by the way already mentioned here in this thread.

I gave up E6, and I am just about out of C41 because of the poor state of US labs. I have tried several and was happy with none. On the positive side, it means I have gone back almost exclusively to B&W with development and scanning at home.

Both E6 and C41 home development is easy with the current modern kits from Fujifilm, Tetenal, Bellini, Rollei etc.
If you can develop BW, you can also develop colour.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Wrong.

The digital camera market is really an imaging sensor market.

Wrong in this simplification.
The majority of the camera manufactuers don't have a strong position in imaging sensor production.
And as digital camera sales are declining by 30-40% p.a. it wouldn't help them either.

And in the Smartphone market we also see first saturation effects. In 1-3 years the boom there is over and sales will also decline.

The P&S has migrated to the smartphone, the dedicated, higher-end camera market is a little saturated.

The higher-end camera market is not "a little" saturated, it is completely oversaturated. That is one of the reasons for the decline in sales.

There is no "crash".

Ignoring the facts never help you. The market for digital cams is today only half (!) of what it was three years ago. Of course that is a crash. The manufacturers itself are using that term if you talk to them face to face.
Look at the CIPA numbers.
And several of the Japanese manufacturers have profitability problems. The weak Yen helped them, otherwise the problems would have been even bigger.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Except Fuji just cancelled manufacture of their 670 medium format camera.

So what? That was never a real Fuji camera, it has always been a Voigtländer built by Cosina.
And this Voigtländer Bessa III stays in production.
And with the Fuji name it was announced as a limited production.
Instead of 5,000 as planned, they even made 10,000.
So, really nothing to complain.

None of their P&S models are now available outside Japan though normal channel.

These latest P&S models are all limited production runs for the Japanese market only. That was also officially announced.
Instead of other manufacturers (like Kodak 😉) they at least have built such cameras.
Others have done nothing at all.

Processing and scanning is so rapidly disappearing from North America and Asian markets and satellite markets that surplus lab equipment is going to salvage and landfills.

Asian markets? Have you been there? No.
I've been there and can tell you, that in Singapore, Hong Kong and China there are no problems getting your films developed.
In North America using mail order or self development will be the way to go in the future for those living outside the bigger cities.
No big deal....

Cheers, Jan

 

[jsrockit]

What we really have here is another film vs. digital thread...

 

[burancap]

Have a look in our film-subforum.... voilà:
http://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137289

A whole thread with recommendations for excellent labs 🙂.
And by the way already mentioned here in this thread.

What makes you think I have not tried any of those labs?

Both E6 and C41 home development is easy with the current modern kits from Fujifilm, Tetenal, Bellini, Rollei etc.
If you can develop BW, you can also develop colour.

No thanks. I have ZERO interest in any of those kits.

 

[Michael Markey]

What we really have here is another film vs. digital thread...

Yes ... that became apparent very quickly.

 

[jsrockit]

Not an unreasonable thread.

No, not at all. However, those who are fans of film will find (or make up) supporting data and those that are into digital will do the same. How many of us really know what is going on in the camera / film business ? How many are true analysts of this market (i.e. not analysts of internet stories and investor relations sections of these companies)?

 

[Michael Markey]

Each time I start a new project I think about using color film, since film has advantages, but in the end I find the cost and inconvenience overwhelming and give in to color digital.

Two stores within walking distance from me with big stocks of colour film at $1.58 a roll.
Tempting until you remember the cost of processing and the inconvenience ...

 

[kxl]

In economic terms, the digital cameras industry went through expansion, reached a peak and is now experiencing contraction. At some point it will reach what is known as a trough before another expansion cycle begins. Such expansion is typically triggered by some catalyst, such as new technology or some other market factor.

To say that it is collapsing is a bit much.

 

[NJH]

I have to disagree,
because
- Fujifilms CEO has clearly said they will continue producing film
- their film production is profitable
- we will see a film revival (in certain market areas it is already evolving), and why should they leave an again increasing business
- Instax is booming, and they need the normal film production for their Instax film production: The negative film base for Instax films is coated on the same machine as normal film
- silver-halide paper production is increasing:
http://www.ephotozine.com/article/fujifilm-hails-golden-era-for-silver-halide-paper-26280 ;
Fuji is increasing their R&D,
the technolgy of colour paper and colour film is very similar, technology transfer makes sense.

Cheers, Jan

Jan please provide the links and evidence please. Instax we know is booming from the company report, the paper side of the business has been reported before. Provide the evidence please for statements 1 & 2.

 

[Ranchu]

You should do your own homework regarding those two statements if you need to, they are not controversial.

 

[shadowfox]

No, not at all. However, those who are fans of film will find (or make up) supporting data and those that are into digital will do the same. How many of us really know what is going on in the camera / film business ? How many are true analysts of this market (i.e. not analysts of internet stories and investor relations sections of these companies)?

The thing is, speaking for myself, I don't need any data to be convinced that digital is now the standard, and film is and will remain a niche. There is not a reverse in trend and I think it's for the best.

Film photography should be appreciated for what it offers today, not for what it was in the old days.

 

[Aristophanes]

Wrong in this simplification.
The majority of the camera manufactuers don't have a strong position in imaging sensor production.
And as digital camera sales are declining by 30-40% p.a. it wouldn't help them either.

And in the Smartphone market we also see first saturation effects. In 1-3 years the boom there is over and sales will also decline.



The higher-end camera market is not "a little" saturated, it is completely oversaturated. That is one of the reasons for the decline in sales.



Ignoring the facts never help you. The market for digital cams is today only half (!) of what it was three years ago. Of course that is a crash. The manufacturers itself are using that term if you talk to them face to face.
Look at the CIPA numbers.
And several of the Japanese manufacturers have profitability problems. The weak Yen helped them, otherwise the problems would have been even bigger.

Cheers, Jan

The market for digital cameras is not "half". That is nonsense.

Unit sell-through is down because it peaked and now is now normalizing. That is the correct analysis.

People continue to take an increasing # of digital photos and the lifespan for sensor turnovers measured mire by phone contracts (in North America) than by anything else. the # of digital sensors sold every day is increasing. The iPhone 6 is going to be the most popular camera of all time.

By any measure the digital market is increasing. All products are better and more durable, which slows down the sales cycle. This is a good thing for consumers.

If you are talking about the optical engineering companies who make dedicated digital cameras then they did make overly ambitious sales projections and now have to scale back production to meet realistic demand. These same flurries happened in the film era as well. Would you rather a saturated market or a scarce market? For cameras or oil? Saturated is a sign of immense success because they made the product so ubiquitous they eclipsed film completely by any statistical measure. It is perfectly normal to overshoot, even industry-wide (tech crash, MBS crash, derivatives crash, tulip crash). We still have tulips and derivatives; more now than ever.

Similarly there are now more consumers in the "market" for digital imaging than ever. The trick for the optical engineering firms is to get their superior optical and sensors (size maters) tech into the network as effortlessly (or nearly so) as smartphones at a reasonable price. Sensor size + superior optics will drive their sales where smartphones cannot go. Collectively the Japanese optical companies have been too driven by a sameness and not-invented-her syndrome which is contributing to their sales problems, but they are not going anywhere.

The title of this thread is simply, factually wrong.

 

[mani]

However, those who are fans of film will find (or make up) supporting data and those that are into digital will do the same. How many of us really know what is going on in the camera / film business ?

Here's some more 'made-up' data about film: "In the past 10 months we have seen a 75% increase in the 18-25 demographic, with teenagers turning their backs on digital for something more tangible. Over the past six months, we have doubled the volume of films we sell and refurbished more than 30,000 classic Polaroid cameras.”

From this article: http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2014/nov/08/why-stars-love-polaroid-no-embarrassing-uploads

As for all the people saying 'what crisis?' in the digital market - one can simply read the statements made by the camera manufacturers themselves.

 

[HHPhoto]

No, not at all. However, those who are fans of film will find (or make up) supporting data and those that are into digital will do the same. How many of us really know what is going on in the camera / film business ? How many are true analysts of this market (i.e. not analysts of internet stories and investor relations sections of these companies)?

Here are the official numbers from the camera industry organisation CIPA:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201409_e.pdf

For example production of DSLRs in September this year was only 61,5% of the production of September 2013.

Here is a "Brandbrief" from the industry showing the panic parts of the industry already have:
http://photoscala.de/Artikel/Brandbrief-zum-Fotomarkt

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Jan please provide the links and evidence please. Instax we know is booming from the company report, the paper side of the business has been reported before. Provide the evidence please for statements 1 & 2.

The Fuji CEO has very clearly said that in several interviews,
here is one as an example:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtscha...eses-geschaeft-neu-definiert-11763568-p3.html

"Film is our roots, and will remain our roots".
"We are coming from the film business, and we are a film company."

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

The market for digital cameras is not "half". That is nonsense.

No, it is not.
The problem is you are ignoring the facts. Just look at the data from CIPA and you will see.
And at the end of this year the market is probably even less than half it was about three years ago.

Cheers, Jan

 

[Aristophanes]

No, it is not.
The problem is you are ignoring the facts. Just look at the data from CIPA and you will see.
And at the end of this year the market is probably even less than half it was about three years ago.

Cheers, Jan

Sales are not "the market".

Econ 101.

The market is the aggregate of all consumers . Sales are a measure of how many of those consumers buy over a period of time.

Smartphones have replaced P&S cameras (many with equivalent sensors) are still increasing in sales so there are now MORE consumers of digital imaging than ever before. As I type there are now an additional thousand+ digital cameras rolling out the door.

The dedicated camera market has slumped because it is saturated and transitioning. It had a boom, now a bust, and it will do as all market do: normalize to a functional utility level. Demand will meet supply.

Consumers have never had it so good. I see stacks of DSLRs at drug stores that no longer sell any film nor take it in for processing.

Your hidden agenda here is to insinuate that somehow the masses are rejecting digital photography. "The sky is falling". This is simply not even close to being the case. There are now more digital imaging devices sharing photos than the entire history of film photography combined.

Fuji Instax photography (I have one) has become the "Hello Kitty" novelty item of photography, replacing the disposable film camera. It is still a minuscule portion of the photography market, and, sadly, demonstrates that analog imaging is now more novelty than an art form unto itself at least in the way Fuji has placed these cameras in "the market".

 

[NJH]

The Fuji CEO has very clearly said that in several interviews,
here is one as an example:
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtscha...eses-geschaeft-neu-definiert-11763568-p3.html

"Film is our roots, and will remain our roots".
"We are coming from the film business, and we are a film company."

Cheers, Jan

I read the google translate version of that article and it presented a position pretty much identical to their published report.

Please provide a link to clear statement that Fujifilm is committed to the continuing production of conventional photographic film, you failed to provide the link or evidence that their photographic film production is profitable so I won't hold my breath.