daveleo
what?
Brand favorites aside, I predict that many more people will opt for APS & m4/3 setups than FF systems forever hereafter.
FF will always be too too big, heavy and expensive by comparison and the output quality / $$$ for the larger market will go to the smaller sensors.
EDIT: not talking of the mass P&S market - I mean the market of semi-pro folks who inhabit, say, this forum.
FF will always be too too big, heavy and expensive by comparison and the output quality / $$$ for the larger market will go to the smaller sensors.
EDIT: not talking of the mass P&S market - I mean the market of semi-pro folks who inhabit, say, this forum.
39per1
Established
One issue: cost!
The Fuji APS cameras are at the top limit of my budget, a medium budget for an italian amateur (and I think you could apply this limit at a lot of amateur all over the world).
I waited for years for an affordable full frame reflex from Nikon, buying a lens (24-120 VR) that I can use on it as soon as I've got the body....but in any case the body, when avaiable (D600), it's still over my budget (2000 euros body only)....
For this I changed all and take the Fuji APS....cameras and lenses are of a high price if compared with APS DSLR, but still affordable.
How much will a FF X camera cost?
How many amateurs could afford that?
Remember always that a digital camera don't last a life, become obsolete in 3 or 4 years and people, maybe, don't like to waste money for an item that they will replace so fast.....
The Fuji APS cameras are at the top limit of my budget, a medium budget for an italian amateur (and I think you could apply this limit at a lot of amateur all over the world).
I waited for years for an affordable full frame reflex from Nikon, buying a lens (24-120 VR) that I can use on it as soon as I've got the body....but in any case the body, when avaiable (D600), it's still over my budget (2000 euros body only)....
For this I changed all and take the Fuji APS....cameras and lenses are of a high price if compared with APS DSLR, but still affordable.
How much will a FF X camera cost?
How many amateurs could afford that?
Remember always that a digital camera don't last a life, become obsolete in 3 or 4 years and people, maybe, don't like to waste money for an item that they will replace so fast.....
willie_901
Veteran
How will these sensors get better?
Will the quantum efficiency double? (no, QE is already high)
Will they cram more sensor sites on the chip? (probably, the D800 performs well)
Will they use fundamentally different technologies? (this is already going on with Foveon and XTrans, but so far innovation has not appeared in m 4/3)
This is not to say revolutionary sensor technology will never happen, of course it will. However sensor technology change proceeds slowly.
The real opportunity lies in lens development.
When perspective remains constant, an increase in lens surface area compensates for the signal-to-noise ratio and dynamic range handicaps associated with smaller sensor surface areas. You don't need to wait for Adobe (or anyone else) to figure out how to demosaic a new sensor technology if you can provide super fast, optically excellent lenses for Bayer sensors with thoughtfully designed AA filters.
Fast lenses only provide more signal in the signal-to-noise ratio equation. They do not deliver more pixels. People whose work relies on very large prints (~48" or more) of detailed subjects won't be interested in APS-C or smaller formats. This sort of work is expensive as it demands large sensor surface areas, excellent optics and a sturdy tripod.