I think the long term future of (non-instant) film is rocky at the moment.
It is at least more stable than some years ago. Because some market segments are already increasing. And in others the decrease rates have significantly come down towards a coming stabilisation.
Fujifilm appear to be slowly pulling out of the market, which would leave Kodak as the sole manufacturer of colour film.
Just speculation. It is also possible that Fujifilm is simply concentrating on the films with sufficient demand, so that they can be kept in production.
Secondly the number of usable cameras is decreasing year on year. Either by collectors hoarding, or by cameras failing over time.
A lot of the people who repaired film cameras are now starting to retire, or passing away without the knowledge being passed on.
The number of working used film cameras on the market is huge, much more than 100 million. Just look at the CIPA numbers (published on their website) how much only Japanese film cameras have been sold since 1977: More than 600 millions!!
That alone will last decades to come.
And there are lots of younger repair experts. And even young and very enthusiastic repair people who are getting now into this attractive market. Just three examples:
https://camerarescue.org/
http://www.fstopcameras.com/
http://clickundsurr.de/
I think for film to have any kind of future it needs at least two stable companies manufacturing colour film. Sure Ilford (and Foma) look stable for B&W, but can they survive in a further shrunken market after the potential loss of colour film ?
Color film will not be lost. There is much more color film sold than BW film. Maybe we will see some changes in production structure or ownwership (Kodak). But certainly not a production stop. Not now as there are positive demand signals from the market. Besides Kodak and Fujifilm there will be Film Ferrania offering color film in the future.
And we will see more BW films also from Adox.
Secondly, it needs someone making new film cameras.
Fujifilm is already producing more then 7 million film cameras (Instax) p.a.
So if there is demand, a company will produce and satisfy the demand. Simple as that.
Intrepid is curently producing more than 1,000 LF cameras p.a.. Because there is demand.
As the production of digital cameras is still collapsing, reaching a new all-time low this year, camera manufacturers will start producing film cameras again as soon as the demand is sufficient enough. Currently the prices of most used cameras are still too low, because there is such a huge over-supply of them. The competition from the used market is currently too big in most segments.
But in 5-7 years, we will probably see more new film cameras again. That would not surprise me at all
🙂.