It's time for some Leica speculation fun...

[intheviewfinder]

Well a now have a M9-m - yet another a rehash of the 3-year old M9. Plus an X2 (aka X1.5). Oh yeah there's an APO Cron 50mm at $7195. Mostly this looks like a stop-gap or holding measure if I ever saw one.

It's time for some fun. Time to speculate...

Leica says the compact camera market (V-Lux & X lines) segment still accounts for the lion’s share of sales but the numbers really look like this...
System cameras 114,930EUR (148,648USD)
Compact cameras 84,675 (109,515USD)

(BTW my numbers come from the annual reports. I did the USD conversion this morning.)

The deal with Panasonic Corp was recently renewed (2011) and will continue without change. "The company has entered into further alliances with various technology companies for the development of new products."

They spend 1/2% of their sales on R&D. Typically growth-flow companies spend at least 7% of their sales revenue on R&D (Cannon for instance hits that 7% figure). They are still using a body design based upon the M7. Sensor designs and software from 2003. At this point it seems to me that they are doing some in-house optic design while farming out the majority of the rest to alliances and one shot opportunities (ex. Volkswagen’s chief designer Walter de’Silva's M9 etc) managed via product engineers. This is not a good recipe to remain ahead in the competitive digital camera market let alone stay in the mix.

My guess is the compact sales are increasing at a faster rate than the system cameras. Hence they threw out the R10 design (is the new APO Cron a spinoff from this?). They are also seeing this move toward mirrorless cameras and may think they can cash in on it. Lastly they are worried about Ricoh and Fuji reverse-engineering the lens mount onto their camera models.

In today's BJP posting, Dr. Andreas Kaufmann, said, "There's a project in place, but no timeframe. But you should come to our event on 17 September to see what we have."

CEO Schopf has said "You will see something at the next Photokina." He added that the new system would use an "APS-C sized sensor at least."

So maybe no M10 but a new APS-c size camera to compete in the mirrorless market. Could they possibly do both an M10 and a new APS-c based camera? But how? (Love that "no timeframe" quote.) They have such a small R&D group how are they going to accomplish this task? Does the X2's EVF indicate a possible deal with Olympus? Or is their a deal, as some have proposed, with Fuji in the offing?

Lots of possibilities. I'm sure folks have some interesting insights and hypothesis. What say ye?

--Rich

 

[willie_901]

When you are a Divinity... you can coast.

Why should Leica try harder when their contempory customer base accepts anything they do - or don't do just because Leica is Leica?

It is absurd for those who do not worship at the alter of M to try and understand because we do not Believe. We are heathens. We are not envious, we are ignorant of the Truth.

I know how this works because I accept just about anything BMW does just because owning a 2002 was the most satisfying experience I've had with a product used daily.

While I have no respect or admiration for Leica since the M8 release. I realize everybody has to have faith in something... and believing Leica is infallible is not the worst mistake ever made.

 

[jsrockit]

I'm very interested in its APS-C mirrorless camera. Hopefully the X2 was disappointing because they are hard at work on this next camera.

 

[dave lackey]

Thorsten Overgaard has already addressed this...there are marketing gaps that will be filled. But one thing is certain, Leica does have the M-body as the core of Leica. No question about that.:angel:

Do I think the X2 is disappointing? Yes, and no.

Yes if I only think short-term expecting a mini-M.

No if I think of the bigger picture and longer time-frame that I presume Leica is doing as well. I suspect there will be a smaller-than-an-M, in-between prices digital camera based on the M fairly soon while the M10 moves up-market yet again.

Fun to speculate I suppose but nothing to stress over.😀

Excuse me while I exercise the dog, she is ringing the bell. And I have my IIIF (the ultimate X2) loaded and in hand so pictures await me.🙂

 

[Ryan1938]

Leica doesn't compete... That's what is so frustrating about them. As a photographer, I don't know what to expect from one year to the next - a wonderful incarnation of the digital M or yet another tasteless special edition.

Leica equipment will always sell at a premium that some consider over-priced and others consider a simple barrier. That's not really the issue for me.

I've given up on Leica as a company that can provide me with a carefree photography system that makes sense from every angle. Luckily, I have my M6 and a collection of lenses. I don't need anything else from them and certainly don't look to them for the future.

 

[BobYIL]

No speculation, no fun.. Listen to what Dr. Kaufmann says:

"Leica's new interchangeable lens camera system unlikely to be introduced in 2012"

IMHO, the APS-C body does require a totally new series designed optimally for that size sensor. Otherwise having to use $3-4K lenses designed to cover FF may not be attractive option even for the Leica devotees.. We need more compact, lighter and especially less costly lenses if Leica was aiming to create a substantial market outside of the M9 series (and after this hour dealing with the outdated architecture of the X1 can not help them with anything..)

More here..

http://www.bjp-online.com/british-j...angeable-lens-camera-unlikely-introduced-2012

 

[rxmd]

Leica says the compact camera market (V-Lux & X lines) segment still accounts for the lion’s share of sales but the numbers really look like this...
System cameras 114,930EUR (148,648USD)
Compact cameras 84,675 (109,515USD)

The numbers look wrong. I think they've sold more than 20 M9s, for instance. Are there a few zeroes missing?

 

[jsrockit]

No speculation, no fun.. Listen to what Dr. Kaufmann says:

"Leica's new interchangeable lens camera system unlikely to be introduced in 2012"

Thanks for this...

 

[dave lackey]

Leica doesn't compete... That's what is so frustrating about them. As a photographer, I don't know what to expect from one year to the next - a wonderful incarnation of the digital M or yet another tasteless special edition.

Leica equipment will always sell at a premium that some consider over-priced and others consider a simple barrier. That's not really the issue for me.

I've given up on Leica as a company that can provide me with a carefree photography system that makes sense from every angle. Luckily, I have my M6 and a collection of lenses. I don't need anything else from them and certainly don't look to them for the future.

Ryan, from someone who is a bit..ahem...older, don't short-change yourself. I am happy with my M3. I have a used X1 lined up because it will fit exactly what I need for a project(s). I cannot afford an M9. I could sell everything that I own and barely be able to purchase a good used M8.

Do I like special editions? Not my call as I am not the market target but if Leica can continue to make money through networking other luxury markets, than that is a wonderful thing.

Can I afford a single new Leica? No. Do I like the offerings yesterday outside of the M9-M? No. Would I buy an X2? Yes, in two years when it can be purchased in mint condition for $1000.

Really, buy and use the camera you love even if it is not "perfect". Chasing the perfect camera may be a super recreational venture for some but for others like myself, it is foolish and expensive. That is why I have said that I love the film Leicas I own and it will take the rest of my life to even begin to master them. Digital Leicas will take a bit longer but either way I am having fun not stressing over Leica or Nikon or any other company. I enjoy Leica products period. I used Nikons for 30+ years and still do but I prefer Leica products now for a variety of reasons. Am I jealous of others for buying expensive cameras/lenses? Heavens no. I applaud them and only ask that they take good care of them because the one they use now and discard later may be my very own camera a few years down the road!😀

I also enjoy making obsolete photographs.😛

Stop stressing and enjoy life.🙂

 

[dave lackey]

Thanks for this...

Yes, thanks, now maybe some can get back to enjoying life rather than stressing like yesterday!😛 Besides, I think the M10 will be the star of Photokina.

 

[paulfish4570]

thanks, rich, for crunching numbers. whether some zeros are missing or not, the R/D percentage speaks LOUDLY ...

 

[intheviewfinder]

Yeah as is typical of annual reports there's three zeros missing. Sorry. The R&D/Sales Ratio still works.

Bob I missed that "Leica's new interchangeable lens camera system unlikely to be introduced in 2012." So that probably crushes the idea of an APS-c camera Photokina. Awwww shucks. ;-D

And Dave I'm not stressing but as I said, just having a little fun speculating.

--Rich

 

[BobYIL]

They spend 1/2% of their sales on R&D. Typically growth-flow companies spend at least 7% of their sales revenue on R&D (Cannon for instance hits that 7% figure). They are still using a body design based upon the M7. Sensor designs and software from 2003. At this point it seems to me that they are doing some in-house optic design while farming out the majority of the rest to alliances and one shot opportunities (ex. Volkswagen’s chief designer Walter de’Silva's M9 etc) managed via product engineers. This is not a good recipe to remain ahead in the competitive digital camera market let alone stay in the mix.

--Rich

A realistic analysis with insight... Leica's prime issue is to cope up with the enormous overhead, and this despite of Jenoptik taking care of all electronics, a body with a rangefinder mechanism dating back to the '50s - and still trying to reach the quality of a certain model then!-, a shutter architecture shared by cameras costing one-tenth, all parts manufactured in Portugal, an LCD probably phased out in all other countries... Nice indications of why the R&D figures showing only 0.5%...

Do Leica really mind about how much the new M9M would be sold?... Why would they mind about it much when the engineering invested in it was a couple of weeks work?! Also there are other options to amortize the investment: Wait for the new version of Hermes, Harrods, Bijan or Sultanate of Nonexistencia.

 

[dallard]

Do I think the X2 is disappointing? Yes, and no.

The X2 is disappointing from a specs point of view but look at it this way: in the 3 years since the X1 came out the price has stayed the same. Plus you get a better sensor.

 

[paulfish4570]

"Sultanate of Nonexistencia"

now that's funny ...

 

[BobYIL]

http://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=119321

 

[dave lackey]

Yeah as is typical of annual reports there's three zeros missing. Sorry. The R&D/Sales Ratio still works.

Bob I missed that "Leica's new interchangeable lens camera system unlikely to be introduced in 2012." So that probably crushes the idea of an APS-c camera Photokina. Awwww shucks. ;-D

And Dave I'm not stressing but as I said, just having a little fun speculating.

--Rich

Ooops, my bad....I meant to address it to Ryan!

This could be a really fun thread with a few photos of the M10 sporting the largest sensor ever:

 

[dave lackey]

Where will Leica be in five years? Most likely even less relevant than they are today, sadly.

Sorry to disagree, but I think Leica will be just fine....YMMV.

 

[Paul Luscher]

Well, a M10 with LED framelines might be a start. Not another run of the fancy (and ridiculous) $22k model, but an "upgrade," so to speak, of the M9, and similarly priced.

Other thing might be that Leica sees the trend towards Micro 4/3 cameras and moves accordingly. I would love to see Leica team up with Olympus on this. Might help save Olympus Camera Co., which has troubles, though not really of its own making. Also Leica could do a ZM thing--bring out a 4/3 camera with Leica branding and mods on it, but mostly made by Olympus--that way they could also sell it at a competitive price.

Think 4/3 may be the wave of the future, and if Leica gets in now, they'll be in pretty much at the start--instead of having to play catch-up--as they did in 1959, when the Nikon F took over the world....

 

[jarski]

Sooner or later, even the "more money than sense" crowd is going to realize that Leica is selling them outdated technology at outrageous prices. ...

thats old comment, posted here every now and then when someone bitter about Leica prices wants to protest in only place they can. lets see, but am not holding my breath this prophecy become reality.