FifthLeaf
amateur
Addendum: I'm more worried about papers and scanners disappearing.
Film has not been outsourced yet which means its still cheap enough to make them in US/Japan/Germany. That is one option still left for film companies.
You're telling me that Nintendo Wii will stop people from playing real tennis, or all racing car drivers would play the latest racing simulation on their PS3 and stop racing?
If by that logic you have concluded that a simulation - which digital photography is - a simulation of photography will replace real photography then you're underestimating the human drive for curiosity.
Digital photography is a purely electronic activity and there is no room in it for creativity and originality, because of the "undo" button and because whatever you "do" with "it" was programmed by a group of code-monkeys in some IT company.
Digital photography like everything in our over-fed, bored, and lazy society is driven by lethargy and inertial. "Please make it easy", "make life easy", "I hate working hard and trying", those are the maxims of today and digital photography fits very well with "spirit of the times".
So it makes sense that film will come close to dying, but Ilford, Kodak, and Fuji will keep a small stream of products out. And if not, ADOX probably will. Many indie record stores have disappeared, but you can still buy online. So when your local pro shop doesn't have film in stock, you will still be able to buy online (depending on your country, of course).
The bar to entry is higher for film than stamping vinyl records. Forte is gone, Agfa is gone, Lucky is in bankruptcy and on its last legs, etc, etc. There is no ADOX film manufacturing. ADOX (Germany) is Fotoimpex, and their CEO says they get (got) their some of their film from Ilford and some from Efke.
When the last of the biggies closes the doors, the party is over, I believe.
That's so sad to hear. But if those facilities still have a useful life through 2015, I can use film until then and then stock up my freezer. Or just suck it up and learn digital.
Will the movie industry all be using RED by 2015? Or will there still be 35mm movie stock left?
If by that logic you have concluded that a simulation - which digital photography is - a simulation of photography will replace real photography then you're underestimating the human drive for curiosity.
Digital photography is a purely electronic activity and there is no room in it for creativity and originality, because of the "undo" button and because whatever you "do" with "it" was programmed by a group of code-monkeys in some IT company.
When the last of the biggies closes the doors, the party is over, I believe.
I bet painters were saying similar things about photography 100 years ago. Or silent film actors about soundies. Or black and white photographers about color. And so on.
I don't know, Kodak was making roll film in 1900, it's not like they need quantum supercomputers to do it.
If the big companies quit film, I'm sure some guy will start making it in his basement.
Show me the guy making Polaroid film in his basement. Come on, trot him out here. I want to see him.
I hear there's a "Mr. Fuji" in Japan who makes fine instant films:
http://www.hpi.com/photo/instant-film-1/polaroid-and-replacements/
Nothing for your swinger, but perhaps you could replace that with something more modern? I hear polaroid cameras are cheap on eBay these days.
I hope that this does not make me a fool. I tend to ask the question, 'cui bono'? Why would Kodak make this announcement? Why now?
Well, for one thing, they need to generate some noise around their company, they are announcing new digital cameras at CES today. Second, they just announced they are closing all their film processing plants in North Carolina and throwing everyone out of work. Third, they also announced they were suspending their 2009 forecast, which they had previously made, on account of the economy. Was I a fool to notice those things? Well, foolish me.
This is the operative statement in the article:
This is accounting. Kodak is saying that they can get more money out of film if they stop investing in infrastructure and simply run the machines until they fall apart, instead of completely depreciating them to zero and replacing them. I'm not talking about investments in R&D, I'm talking about replacing broken equipment and building new infrastructure, physical plant. They're not going to. They're going to run it until the wheels fall off. They just said so.
Now, given that they have made the decision to keep running the machines, they need to make sure that the market, which they know is declining on the order of 30% year-on-year, doesn't go away entirely while they are trying to suck some remaining profit from the equipment and buildings.
That's all this is. Nothing more. Kodak, like any publicly-traded for-profit corporation, has a fiduciary responsibility to its shareholders. Not you, not me (unless you are shareholders too).
What it means, to you and me, is that if the market doesn't destroy them utterly in the meantime, we'll have film from Kodak until 2015, then it's goodnight, Gracie.
That's the point. Fuji film doesn't fit in the Swinger,
So now...about this guy who is going to supply the world's 35mm film demand in his basement...
That's a red herring argument. The fact is, instant film still exists in some form. To say that it doesn't fit your swinger is like saying that digital is dead because you can't buy a memory disk for your Sony Mavica.
I thought the point was, fewer and fewer people would be using film, hence it would be feasible for small companies or individuals to support demand. Sort of like the people who still make buggy whips. 🙂
It would seem that digital could be Kodak's downfall for the ever increasing need for R&D money to stay current, and no desire of producing anything but a cheap camera. I can't think of a really high end Kodak film camera beyond the 2D View Cameras, and hardly anything one would consider more than a hobbyist camera.
I'd love to see Kodak take a cue from Ilford and concentrate on film & paper and shrink in size. I'll never understand this notion that every company must always grow every year and never consider concentrating on doing something well and settling for a smaller market. But remember, I'm a moron.
I'm with you. But AFAIK Kodak's digital division manufactures sensors for almost everyone out there. The fact is that Kodak digital imaging systems, whether film or digital, cover the spectrum.
I *think* Kodak has swung back and forth over the years trying to follow market trends at the behest of clueless investors and ambitious management. And for all the flack they've taken over the years for being ignorant morons, they are still pumping out premium films to this day.
There is no ADOX film manufacturing. ADOX (Germany) is Fotoimpex, and their CEO says they get (got) their some of their film from Ilford and some from Efke.