btgc
Veteran
Absolutely agreed.
And next step is that average people wanting just to snap them standing next to famous spot or price tags in store, will abandon dedicated digicams as cellphones will do all they need - this were discussed before.
akarin
Established
I think it is quite obvious that film will cease to exist in the awareness of the mass who, as someone else already put it very well earlier in this thread, "want to take photograph, but do not want to be photographers" (well..I paraphrase a bit here). But that's different from a total disappearance of film, no?
Virtually all people I know now get their music from the net or CDs, but I do have at least one friend who is a die-hard fan for LPs and can still buy his vinyls. Amazon sells them. Coincidentally, his sound system depends on those old 'bulbs' (I don't even know how to call that thing myself)...and he can still buy those bulbs as well.
If there are still some specialty manufacturers and stores who supply films, at this day and age when we can buy almost everyone over the internet, it is hard for me to imagine that I'll see the complete extinction of film in my life time. What I believe will very likely happen is that film will disappear from main-stream photography scene and becomes specialty/niche items or heck even art supplies
Virtually all people I know now get their music from the net or CDs, but I do have at least one friend who is a die-hard fan for LPs and can still buy his vinyls. Amazon sells them. Coincidentally, his sound system depends on those old 'bulbs' (I don't even know how to call that thing myself)...and he can still buy those bulbs as well.
If there are still some specialty manufacturers and stores who supply films, at this day and age when we can buy almost everyone over the internet, it is hard for me to imagine that I'll see the complete extinction of film in my life time. What I believe will very likely happen is that film will disappear from main-stream photography scene and becomes specialty/niche items or heck even art supplies
Pickett Wilson
Veteran
I think you will be surprised, after the first domino falls, how quickly the others follow. I don't buy into the model that says film will slowly become a niche market over decades.
akarin
Established
Here is my line of though: let's say that Kodak do fail and its film disappear. Fuji's position in the market should be stronger. Price will rise and some casual film users will stop using film. For those who remain in the market for film aren't there because it's cheaper than digital, but because they do prefer it (like those folks to prefer LPs over CDs). At some point, it is possible that margin will be enough to sustain Fuji and Ilford or maybe just one company.
I think that film to photography is like LPs to music. There is some strong intangible --some many argue that it is tangible, but I digress ;-)-- that separate film from it digital, look, feel, etc. you name it
Anyway, all this could just be my wishful thinking
btgc
Veteran
I must admit I'm very far from business, so I wonder if Kodak's demise automatically means Fujifilm will immediately raise prices. If Kodak film users (those who don't rely only on ebay and such) will switch, probably, to Fujifilm products....actually it's pure speculation, nothing it means. So what about prices then?
bmattock
Veteran
People tend to argue 'X is better than Y so therefore people will tend to prefer X." You can read 'better' to mean 'more soulful' or 'better, but intangibly so', etc. The problem with such thinking is that experience shows that the general public often fails to perceive the benefit that cognoscenti think is plain as the nose on their faces.
There are many who argue that bicycles are a much more rewarding way to travel to and from work each day. They may be right - some of their arguments are compelling, and I certainly enjoy riding a bicycle. Yet the Western world stubbornly refuses to ride a bicycle to work, despite how brilliant and wonderful and utterly sublime it is.
I agree that film is still superior to digital in many tangible ways, demonstrably so. I think that point, true though it is, has utterly nothing to do with how long film will remain a commercially-viable product in the mainstream consumer market. It may have some bearing on how much demand remains when all typical consumer demand drops to or near zero.
bmattock
Veteran
Competition forces prices down in countries that have a free market and do not regulate prices. No one else makes color print film anymore except Kodak, Fuji, and Ferrania. Ferrania products are seen as inferior substitutes (to many) and therefore will not 'compete' directly with Fuji if Fuji becomes the last major color film producer remaining. Therefore, they can charge what they wish.
btgc
Veteran
Again, speaking far from real business experience, Fujifilm should be not very clever to kill hen, still laying eggs - so to speak about unreasonable price rise.
Only if they are trying to go for all or nothing, like those ebay sellers listing $10 worth camera for $50 - if someone swallows price, they are good, if not - they don't loose much.
sevo
Fokutorendaburando
You know, there are cities in the Netherlands, France and Germany where people use bicycles more than cars...
bmattock
Veteran
It is certainly not the norm. In the USA, not many people who live in Manhattan own cars, but car ownership is certainly common just about everywhere else in the USA. My point remains the same, nit-picking aside.
bmattock
Veteran
Imagine that you make widgets. You have a major competitor who makes widgets that are commonly considered to be as good as yours. Some people like your widgets better, some like your competitor's widgets better, but by and large, you are in direct competition.
When everything else is equal, retail price is often a major selection factor. So you cut your prices as low as you can and still make a profit, so that you can sell your widgets.
Suddenly, your competitor is gone. The first thing you can do is to bring your prices up to a level where you are no longer operating on super-thin margins. So that's a price rise for consumers. What choice will they have? Demand should, at least temporarily, outstrip supply, since they have their normal demand plus at least some of the demand of their former competitor.
Now, perhaps you have seen the writing on the wall and you realize that the overall market for your widgets is declining anyway. You are beginning the process of winding down your widget-making business so that you can put your efforts into other, more profitable and more importantly, more forward-looking businesses.
Considering that if you wind down carefully, you can keep supply lower than demand, you can charge what you wish. Just about anything. Some people will be turned off - but where will they go? If they refuse to buy, then they get nothing, there are no other widget-makers. So you can double, even triple, the price - who cares? People who want will buy, people who are upset won't, but you're winding down anyway.
In this case, you're not killing the goose that laid the golden egg, you've got a goose that's dying anyway, and you're just getting as much as you can for the last few eggs it makes before it ends up on the dinner table.
I would logically expect a price increase by Fuji in the case that Kodak quit the color print film business.
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
Another paragraph that rings so true!
Take the example of two people who want some photos to share with friends ... consumer driven 'non photographers' as you put it who are obviously the bulk of the market.
One takes the gamble and buys a small film camera, uses a proprietry C41 colour film then takes that film to a drug store or walmart or wherever to get it processed and some prints ... the chances are a lot of those prints will look fairly crappy, it seems to be pretty inevitable thee days!
The second person buys a compact point and shoot digital for a couple of hundred dollars that will likely be at least 8 megapixel these days! It will have intelligent metering, infallible auto focus and will, likely as not, produce accurately exposed well focussed images in the hands of a complete ludite. This same ludite, if they choose, can download some very effective freeware like Picassa from the net and store and tune their images without having to know much about digital post processing at all. Give them a budget priced but capable printer and a pack of gloss paper from the local supermarket and they'll have the capability of producing photos that will make the poor film user's drug store/chain store efforts look pretty horrible!
Film will never reclaim this mum/dad average joe/jill market ... without this market it can only expect to be a struggling niche product in the future at best. Getting back to Kodak who are in deep s**t as we all know ... why wouldn't they abandon it?
bmattock
Veteran
Purely anecdotal, but now that I have to go to the drugstore fairly often to get my Metformin and stuff for my diabetes, I routinely walk past the photo counter. When there are people there, they are invariably gathered around one of the two kiosks, where they are uploading their digital photos into the kiosk from a memory card they pulled from a cheap digital camera. Then they review the photos on the screen, crop, perform minor pre-programmed editing, and order prints. They come back ten minutes later and pick the prints up. The racks where the film hangs to dry are empty. That's just one experience, I won't claim it is universal, but I'll bet it's a scenario that is repeated quite a bit. You don't even need a computer anymore - just a digital camera. Go to the local drugstore and order prints, and shazam.
Personally, I sometimes find myself in need of a print, and if it doesn't have to be high-quality, I just upload it to Walgreens and then drive by and pick it up an hour or so later. My last 'order' was last weekend - the price was 72 cents as I recall.
wgerrard
Veteran
Bill's right. In a healthy market, the company that was the only widget maker should be careful to avoid raising prices too high, lest they drive away buyers. A monopoly is no good if people actually stop buying your product.
So, in the projected scenario, Fuji could raise prices as much as it wanted, with the only impact being the timing of their decision to kill their film goose.
I'd think a likely marketing hack at that point would be for Fuji to announce that all film production will stop on such-and-such a date, that they have approximately X amount of film in storage and will sell it off in retail channels while it lasts. At that point, Fuji film becomes a very scarce and very desired product, allowing Fuji to set prices accordingly.
So, in the projected scenario, Fuji could raise prices as much as it wanted, with the only impact being the timing of their decision to kill their film goose.
I'd think a likely marketing hack at that point would be for Fuji to announce that all film production will stop on such-and-such a date, that they have approximately X amount of film in storage and will sell it off in retail channels while it lasts. At that point, Fuji film becomes a very scarce and very desired product, allowing Fuji to set prices accordingly.
wgerrard
Veteran
I've seen this happen with friends and relatives. They only use cameras on vacations and special occasions. For years, they reasoned that it didn't make sense to buy a camera. So, they just bought a one-use-only at the drugstore a few times a year.
The pictures they took were nothing short of miserable. Heads cut off, blurry, too dark, too bright, you name it. I'd talk about focus and exposure and composition, and their eyes would glaze over. If I brought up depth of field, foreheads would collapse on table tops.
They didn't want to hear all that because they expected the camera to do all that stuff for them, and said as much.
Well, they eventually got a digital that does indeed "do all that stuff for them". They feed it a memory card and shoot and shoot and shoot, based on the notion that if you take 20 shots of the same thing, at least one of them is bound to look good.
Their photos aren't prizewinners, but at least you can recognize Aunt Sally. (And they post them on Picasa and email the link to people.)
[Bill: I see the same use of the digital kiosks at the Walgreens down the street. The clerk that is supposed to deal with film customers is never there, which I attribute to the fact that he'd stand there doing nothing most of the time.]
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Chris101
summicronia
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
Now that made me laugh as I visualised the scene in my head!
bmattock
Veteran
I have a friend whose mother was notorious for cutting heads off. She'd shrug and say "Who cares, I know what he looks like already." When it was pointed out to her that other people who might see the photos wouldn't be able to tell who the photo was supposed to be, she'd say "well, he isn't much to look at anyway." Wyoming gal, didn't get too worked up about anything.
Steve Bellayr
Veteran
Did a google search on the topic. Found a person who is employed by Kodak who said that they are still making film & rumor is much overblown. As for rumors any one could see the Borders & Blockbuster were dying. As for business speculation: Who watched the John Stewart show 2 days ago? He had a clip of a sock market prognosticator explaining how the election of Brown would cause the stock market to rise (The Stock Market rose the day of the election before Brown of Mass. was elected.). The next two days were the largest loses in over a year. Business analysis...on target as usual. Remember the film industry is currently making record profits and they are using film...70mm film which is half 35mm film.
dcsang
Canadian & Not A Dentist
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/jan/22/oracle-sun-microsystems
That, up there, was basically a given seeing as how the process was started 9 months ago.
However, it does allow 24/7 Wall St. to "beat their chest" and say they were right about, at least, one of their predictions. Let's see if the other 9 shoes drop.
Dave
That, up there, was basically a given seeing as how the process was started 9 months ago.
However, it does allow 24/7 Wall St. to "beat their chest" and say they were right about, at least, one of their predictions. Let's see if the other 9 shoes drop.
Dave