Lifetime of M8s

[JPSuisse]

Dear All

So, threads like "How long will your keep M8?" have got me thinking.

Does anybody know what the actual lifetime of the M8 electronics would be? I know nothing about such issues. This could be the main factor in influencing my decision for how long I'll keep this camera. How long does a CCD last? What is the lifetime of modern throw-away consumer electronics: soldering, boards, etc.?

My old Dynaco tube amp after a revision many years ago is still ok. The MPs I'm sure will last a century with a shutter replacement. My SAAB 900 will also probably last 20 more years...

But the M8?

Salutations,

JP

 

[robklurfield]

An equally or even more important question is: how large a back stock of spares does Leica plan to keep?

Dear All

So, threads like "How long will your keep M8?" have got me thinking.

Does anybody know what the actual lifetime of the M8 electronics would be? I know nothing about such issues. This could be the main factor in influencing my decision for how long I'll keep this camera. How long does a CCD last? What is the lifetime of modern throw-away consumer electronics: soldering, boards, etc.?

My old Dynaco tube amp after a revision many years ago is still ok. The MPs I'm sure will last a century with a shutter replacement. My SAAB 900 will also probably last 20 more years...

But the M8?

Salutations,

JP

 

[Roger Hicks]

Well, they promised support for 20 years.

You can either (a) believe them or (b) call them liars.

My guess is that they'll still be reparable in 25-30 years (at a price) but that not many will still be in use by then. Those who buy new Leicas will have bought new Leicas and those who buy second-hand Leicas will very properly post messages on RFF to ask what sort of support is available.

Cheers,

R.

 

[kbg32]

I'm sure Leitz has parts for many years to come. The M8 in many ways is not that much different from the M9, shutter mechanism, etc.. I am sure that many parts from the M9 would fit the M8. But I am sure there are many people who will argue that!

 

[JPSuisse]

Yes, Roger, maybe most people are really like that. I, on the other hand, as maybe at least a few others, may buy new and use for a long time.

So, that's what motivated my question. The 20 year support is a good point, but doesn't really answer my question. Anything can be repaired and repaired at an exhorbitant price.

That's why I asked about the lifetime of things like circuit boards, soldering used nowadays, etc. Anybody here know anything about this topic?

In any case, barring some unforeseen problem, I'll still easily be around in 20 years...

Cheers to all,

JP

 

[Sonnar Brian]

My oldest DSLR is 17 years old. It has picked up 3 noisy pixels out of 1.6MPixels. It is a Kodak KAF-1600, same line as the M8 sensor.

 

[Viktor Sebastian]

Well, they promised support for 20 years.

Imagine sensor technology in 20 years time. I really doubt that anyone would still want to use a camera that is so outdated electronically. Who is going to be using a Kodak DCS 760 in 11 years time?

 

[JPSuisse]

Sebben, that's just an argument for not paying much money at all for anything digital... M8, M9, D700, or whatever...

Actually, I think we're reaching a point where the image quality is basically good from digital. Of course, film still has its special aspects.

I was even using cassette tapes until my house burned down a while back. Think: 20 years after the CD had been introduced! (Fortunately, the cameras were in a protective place that wasn't affected!)

JP

 

[Mcary]

Dear All

So, threads like "How long will your keep M8?" have got me thinking.

Does anybody know what the actual lifetime of the M8 electronics would be? I know nothing about such issues. This could be the main factor in influencing my decision for how long I'll keep this camera. How long does a CCD last? What is the lifetime of modern throw-away consumer electronics: soldering, boards, etc.?

My old Dynaco tube amp after a revision many years ago is still ok. The MPs I'm sure will last a century with a shutter replacement. My SAAB 900 will also probably last 20 more years...

But the M8?

Salutations,

JP

Time itself has very little to do with the life span of an M8/M9 or any digital camera as electronics don't age they wear out from usage. So If say someone is only taking a few hundred frames a month they could probable expect their M8/M9 to last the 20 plus years people have mentioned here. On the other hand if someone is taking thousands of frames a month there's a very good chance the their M8/M9 will need to be repaired or replaced much sooner.
BTW I'd expect if someone took a brand new M9 and put it away in a protective enviorement and took it out in say 1000 years it would work just fine.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Imagine sensor technology in 20 years time. I really doubt that anyone would still want to use a camera that is so outdated electronically. Who is going to be using a Kodak DCS 760 in 11 years time?

But a DCS 760 is NOT an M9. What is the M9 not going to do than an M12 or M15 will? What will be the REAL improvements? Sure, more megapixels, better high ISO, probably other features we haven't even thought of. But the M8 and M9 will still be very competent cameras.After all, people are still buying Leicas from the 1930s, despite the advent of the M-series. Why not an M9 in 2030? And there'll be people on RFF praising its slood. Slood, in this context, is like 'bokeh' but refers to the specific qualities of vintage sensors.

@JP: "I, on the other hand, as maybe at least a few others, may buy new and use for a long time" Yes, me too. But I think that even if I were 30 years younger, I'd not reckon on a digital camera necessarily lasting more than a couple of decades. £5000/$7000 for 20 years' enjoyment is a bargain now, and 20 years from now, when a pound or a dollar will buy maybe a fifth of what it does today, it'll look even more like a bargain.

There is no standard of how long things last. The first thing to go is normally the electromechanical interface: switchgear of some kind. After that, the question is, "How well were the joints soldered?" After that -- well, we just don't know, because an accelerated aging test is only a VERY rough guide to how long anything will last in the real world, and there's a more-or-less Gaussian curve for failure. Outliers will fail very early or very late, but I'd be surprised if anyone, even at Kodak or Leica, knew the probable median life of the sensor.

So I wan't being flip or supercilious, and I apologize if it seemed as if I was. It was an honest guess that an M8 will last at least 20 years, and probably 25-30, based on the assumption that they aren't going to want to repair lots of them.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Sonnar Brian]

I still use my D1x and Nikon E3 for work. I like the SB-29 and my E3 works with it. The image resolution is fine for reports. I do not need high ISO for technical work. So what do I need a D3 to do that my E3 will not do? If I do, I'll buy one. Will they still work in 10 years? If not, I got my money's worth out of them.

Wish I had a DCS760m.

The last time I had a sensor fail in a digital imager was in 1983. It cost $40,000 to replace. It had 32 elements, but it was in Midwave and Longwave IR.

 

[JPSuisse]

Cheez, Brian, I can only wonder what the heck you do for a livin!!

 

[Ming Rider]

Great. I do love a philosophical debate.

I predict that cameras will be a thing of the past in 20 - 30 years, only being kept alive by enthusiasts.

Photographic images will be recorded straight from the eye onto your personal 'everything' device.

 

[tbarker13]

Well, they promised support for 20 years.

You can either (a) believe them or (b) call them liars.

Hmmm. Didn't they also once promise that the M8 would see repeated upgrades over the years? They kind of backed out of that one.😀
But even if they do stick to this promise, it won't really matter all that much. Within 10 years - if not 5 - the cost of any significant factory repair will far exceed the value of the camera.

 

[Ben Z]

Well, they promised support for 20 years.

You can either (a) believe them or (b) call them liars.

Or, (c) look to historical fact to decide whether to (a) or (b).

Fact: Leica also promised that the M8 would be continually upgradeable as technology evolves. Or at least, so stated Steven Lee prior to getting sacked.

Fact: Even now, a few short years after it's discontinuation, Leica has stated they have no plans to source new batteries for the DMR. If not for cottage-industry 3rd-party suppliers offering to refurbish spent battery packs, for many people their DMR would already be a doorstop.


Practically-speaking, Tim is right on. Even 5 years from now, more likely it will be cheaper to find a still-working M8 than repair a broken one. It's the same situation people have been facing for years when their R3 electronics conk out.

 

[btgc]

Fact: Even now, a few short years after it's discontinuation, Leica has stated they have no plans to source new batteries for the DMR. If not for cottage-industry 3rd-party suppliers offering to refurbish spent battery packs, for many people their DMR would already be a doorstop.

Looks like only one person before me has mentioned battery. After 10 years original batteries made today will be down so all will depend if anyone will make fresh replacements.

 

[Sonnar Brian]

Nikon does not make battery packs for the E series DSLR's. But, there are companies that will put new cells in an old pack. I have one pack that came with the 1997 camera that still holds a good charge, and two worn out ones. So, I could keep it going for several more years with the batteries.

 

[MCTuomey]

I guess I don't think too much about longevity of my gear. There will be no lack of good replacement gear in the future. Since I'm accustomed to pay < $2K for a digi camera, I figure if I get 10-12 years of use it's not really so expensive. Even if it's a doorstop in the end, it's only about $15 per month "rent" over its life. I saved that much when I stopped making regular visits to Starbucks ...

And a shorter period of ownership works much the same, as you'd expect. For example, I bought a Canon 1D almost 8 years ago to use for sportsshooting. Cost of $1200. I used it roughly 4 years, then sold it for $600. I figure it cost me about $12.50 a month.

I suspect my M8 will be about the same, we'll see. Big fun for a few $ a week 🙂

 

[Roger Hicks]

I guess I don't think too much about longevity of my gear. There will be no lack of good replacement gear in the future. Since I'm accustomed to pay < $2K for a digi camera, I figure if I get 10-12 years of use it's not really so expensive. Even if it's a doorstop in the end, it's only about $15 per month "rent" over its life. I saved that much when I stopped making regular visits to Starbucks ...

And a shorter period of ownership works much the same, as you'd expect. For example, I bought a Canon 1D almost 8 years ago to use for sportsshooting. Cost of $1200. I used it roughly 4 years, then sold it for $600. I figure it cost me about $12.50 a month.

I suspect my M8 will be about the same, we'll see. Big fun for a few $ a week 🙂

Dear Mike,

Indeed, that's the bottom line. Even an M9 written off completely over 7 years = $1000/year = <$20/week.

Anyone here smoke or drink coffee? Let alone like wine with dinner?

Cheers,

R.

 

[Viktor Sebastian]

But a DCS 760 is NOT an M9. What is the M9 not going to do than an M12 or M15 will? What will be the REAL improvements? Sure, more megapixels, better high ISO, probably other features we haven't even thought of. But the M8 and M9 will still be very competent cameras.After all, people are still buying Leicas from the 1930s, despite the advent of the M-series. Why not an M9 in 2030? And there'll be people on RFF praising its slood. Slood, in this context, is like 'bokeh' but refers to the specific qualities of vintage sensors.

Cheers,

R.

You raise some good points Roger, I guess I just have problems imaging that in today’s society people are willing to use something for longer than 2 years let alone 20.

In terms of possible improvements. How about better battery life? Measured in months instead of shots.

Speaking of slood, I really appreciate the slood the M8 gives especially shooting at ISO 2500.