Pickett Wilson
Veteran
"Bottom line is while the old Kodak and Fuji business models for film and processing might be short for this world business model(s) by smaller leaner companies could have quite a bright future for some time to come."
I'm not sure that's the way it will work. As film becomes more difficult and expensive to have processed commercially many people that now hold onto film will abandon it. The reality is that, most significantly with color film, most folks will not continue to use it when local one-hour options are gone. Sure, you can drop it in an envelope at Wal-mart and send it to Fuji, but it is modern times and most snapshooters want to see their stuff now, not in a few days. Especially since they mostly share photos digitally, now. Color film will be the first to go.
As for B&W, there is a steady attrition in the number of people shooting B&W film as cost and convenance, especially with 35mm, and the new style cameras from Panasonic and Olympus lure them away from film. The market is already small, and there is no reason to believe that attrition won't continue. Just look at the increasing number of converts to small digital cameras here on RFF.
Small companies that produce nothing but film don't have the luxury of doing a run of film on a line once a year like Kodak or Fugi are likely doing right now. It would mean laying off employees and hiring new ones every year. Once lines start being shut down for long periods due to decreasing demand, they are likely history.
My feeling is that film, if it dies, will die precipitously, rather than gradually.
I'm not sure that's the way it will work. As film becomes more difficult and expensive to have processed commercially many people that now hold onto film will abandon it. The reality is that, most significantly with color film, most folks will not continue to use it when local one-hour options are gone. Sure, you can drop it in an envelope at Wal-mart and send it to Fuji, but it is modern times and most snapshooters want to see their stuff now, not in a few days. Especially since they mostly share photos digitally, now. Color film will be the first to go.
As for B&W, there is a steady attrition in the number of people shooting B&W film as cost and convenance, especially with 35mm, and the new style cameras from Panasonic and Olympus lure them away from film. The market is already small, and there is no reason to believe that attrition won't continue. Just look at the increasing number of converts to small digital cameras here on RFF.
Small companies that produce nothing but film don't have the luxury of doing a run of film on a line once a year like Kodak or Fugi are likely doing right now. It would mean laying off employees and hiring new ones every year. Once lines start being shut down for long periods due to decreasing demand, they are likely history.
My feeling is that film, if it dies, will die precipitously, rather than gradually.
