NYC Journal

Austin,

I came upon that site too.

Because of my journalism background I had to dig in to find out if in fact our house is a Craftsman.

Our home has 4 different rooflines on the second floor and then a front and rear hip roof on the two porches. Know that the powder room was built off the kitchen utilizing a little more than half what was the rear porch. The front porch originally was an open porch, but is now a closed porch.

Also the “walkout” for the tower extends down to the first floor living room. We have two walkouts: one in the dining room; and one in the living room (parlor).

So I believe that “Maggie” is correct: we have an Arts & Crafts house that dates back to 1912.

I still will check the joists in the basement for the stamping that would signify a Craftsman to make sure.

The thing is that many of these simple homes have been updated in a HGTV way where it destroys the history. We are only the fourth owners, and really only the third because the first two were within the family.

The house looks to have only had one updating and that seems to have been in 1975. I date this by the stamped date inside the toilet cover from the powder room and seeing the same ceramic tile used in the kitchen, powder room nd the upstairs bath.

Realize we bought the house cheap, and that it languished on the market unloved because it needed a serious/expensive updating.

The good was: 200 amp service; almost new oil furnace (Crown/Becket); and a 6 year old roof of designer shingles.

The bad was: major updating; need of a new front entrance (old one was fugly); front stoop needed replacement

The ugly: Knotweed; fugly entrance; painted original moldings.

Know that in Craftsman and Arts & Crafts stained wood trim and built ins were the ornamentation.

Took me a day to strip the paint off half a door. I have three more doors that are half doors that need to be stripped eventually, then there are the 4 closet doors that need both sides stripped. Oh-well. I know I’m stubborn.

Cal
 
Cal, I never will understand why people would paint over beautiful hard wood molding and floors. About 15 years ago my baby sister took my 2 nephews to the Space and Rocket Musemun in Huntsville AL. Now understand that we lived in Huntsville from 1962 until 1971. She decided to show the boys the house we grew up in. Well, they got to the house and house was up for sale and they were having an open house that day.

So they go in and my sister explains that she grew up in the house as a kid to the owner. He looks at her and asks her if we'd had the floors carpeted. She replies "no, why would we cover up beautiful hard wood floors?" He tells her that when he bought it, the owner before him had carpeted the whole house.

He'd ripped out ALL the carpet and had the floors sanded and refinished. He said he wondered what kind of A**hole covered up hardwood floors with cheap carpet.
 
MFM,

The most recent owner that sold us the house was a woman. She had the wall to wall carpet removed and had the heart pine floors sanded and refinished. Plenty of A-holes in the world it seems that prefer carpet over hardwood floors. LOL.

I ripped up a ceramic tile floor and two layers of linoleum to restore the original heart pine kitchen floor. Now the entire first floor is restored to 1912 and is period correct.

Just imagine having the same beige square foot tile in both baths and the kitchen. This second owner did Home Cheapo specials. At this point we undid these rooms.

A hardwood floor if maintained can last 100-120 years. Our house was built in 1912 so the carpet extended its life so I can enjoy it.

In Craftsman and Arts & Crafts homes the moldings were simple clear pine, but oversized to be decorative.

I do kinda agree that these kit houses made homes affordable to many. They were a good idea, but WWII ended the Craftsman homes.

Two dates: one suggests 1940; and another 1942. I guess it depends where you draw the line: 1940 was the date for the general public; and 1942 ended the exclusion for military and war production housing. Understandably resources had to be reserved for the war effort.

One of my neighbors has a Four Square house which is an original American design that has the benefit of being a rather large house that can be built on a small plot. The house is gigantic and very spacious, but on a sliver of land.

WWII created sprawl and the ranch style homes of Levitowns.

Here locally in Westchester, just north of NYC, there still is a housing shortage. The price drops reported in the news about a housing correction really did not drop much if at all here. The housing supply remains tight.

I’m in love with our house. Pretty much the ideal size, low taxes (especially for Westchester), I’m in the Henry Hudson School District which is in the top 100 school systems in New York State (was funded by Indian Point, the Nuclear Power Supply). The Peekskill school district is not rated so high because it has a high amount of immigrants and Peekskill is a City and immigrant community.

Although I live in a city, I am pretty much as far as you can be from downtown, right on the edge of the city Close to that 1500 acre preserve.

Our house is looking mighty cute, even with a 15 yard dumpster in my driveway. LOL.

Cal
 
I will use an orbital sander on the door today. They expect the high to be 60 degrees today in Peekskill. It is February 20th.

My hands are still sore from yesterday. The new tough guy saw horses made a great table in the garage. I guess room by room the doors and moldings will get stripped eventually. From what I learned it looks like removing the moldings to strip them will prevent collateral damage to the floors and will allow for easier workings.

Seems like the Free Trade Agreement and Globalization is over and now trade alliances are happening. Russia and China historically were friends under communism, then enemies under communism, and are friendly again. Like Canada and the U.S., one country has abundant resources and a long border.

The E.U. in total has an economy as large as the U.S. All wars end up effecting economies, and pretty much the Cold War was won by outspending and outproducing the USSR. Ronald Ray-Gun raised defense spending from around 3% of GNP to 5%. Our economy was 3 Trillion GDP, and the USSR was only about a trillion. To match our defense spending the USSR ended up going bankrupt. Major point: in the end the Cold War was an economic war.

So in a war of attrition, pretty much it comes to out producing weapons, munitions, how to best harness all your resources. On one hand the U.S., Canada, and the West are advantaged because we have a bigger economy and the economic advantage, but I hope it is not given away because of politics, fragmented policy, and other B.S.

What I am saying is “Let’s fight to win.” It is our best interest to unite and get committed. We are in a “Hot-War,” meaning people are being killed and dying, and weapons stockpiles are being used and expended.

China’s approach is to sideline the U.S. with this conflict and to hurt and divert our economy to strengthen its place in the world. Perhaps this is flawed because an alliance between Russia and China, two vast countries, I think would lead to isolationism.

Germany is China’s largest trading partner. When I was in Germany during that “Free-Vacation Cruse” I learned that Germany supplies the bulk of precision tooling that China can’t make internally. Pretty much during the Cold War the USSR had the brainpower but lacked the industrial capacity. I see this to be true again from China.

If chip exports to China happened it would cripple China’s economy because they lack industrial capacity. I’m sure a “War Economy” instituted by the West could be revolutionary. This War Economy would economically hurt China.

The “Belt and Road” good will was a Chinese policy to gain spheres of influence in developing countries. This policy worried the West for a while, but these monster sized projects are displaying structural defects and design flaws, meanwhile these projects saddled developing countries with massive debt, funded by Chinese banks, and many built with Chinese labor.

Sound like a disaster: well it is. Basically good-will turned NATO pure evil and greed.

Also the Belt and Road policy is a good example of how state run and owned enterprises eventually fail.

I personally avoid “Cheap goods from China.” I see no product of high quality or of durability. Pretty much consumer goods that are “throwaways.” I can live and for the most part have been living without Chinese goods. I wish “Maggie” would stop buying CGFC.

Biden is in the Ukraine today, as Russia and China meet.

In history China was isolationist, and this led to it being colonialized. IMHO China I don’t think realizes how they are leading themselves into isolation. I believe there will be pain and adjustment on both sides, and clearly sides will be chosen, but who needs who more?

Does China need western technology? Do the Chinese think they are as advanced as they think they are? Does China think they have the resources and industrial capacity?

Then also know that the last time China fought a war was decades ago against Vietnam. Pretty much the experienced Vietnamese that had fought the French and Americans kinda slaughtered the Chinese in a humiliating way.

I am of Chinese descent, so I can say this without being racist: the Chinese do a lot of dumb shXX.

Another bad idea was the 15 year period of limiting one child per family. How dumb was that? Now because of culture there is a disproportionate amount of males from that 15 year period. Mucho dumb.

Cal
 
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“Maggie” suggests that our home, being the oldest on the block, was built to be a show piece and model. Our title insurance indicates that our house was part of a larger development back in the day.

Also the corner lot on a dead end, that borders on a marsh and brook seems to be a select location.

The upstairs bathroom door is coming along. It is a raised panel door with 5 panels. The orbital sander can only go so far, so now comes the hand sanding of tight areas, but the rest of the door cleaned up nicely.

The door knobs, hinges, and lock/catch are all brass.

The dumpster was removed this morning from my driveway.

Cal
 
Another correction: I had thought/reported that China’s One Child Policy was a 15 year period, but that was incorrect. The dates I have seen say this policy started in 1979 or 1980 and lasted to 2016, over three decades.

China has doomed its growth for sure.

Cal
 
Today’s task was to seal the grout in the new upstairs bath. I used a brush to apply and work into the porous grout, and it slightly darkened when wet, but dried it lightened again.

Care had to be taken to remove the surplus because it will leave a film on the tile.

The process reminded me of in art school priming a canvas with gesso because I had to work the application into the surface and the goal was an even application.

I did the math using 1979-2016 and just imagine if you scooped out people age 8-44 from a countrie’s population, and then because of culture any 8-44 year olds born during that envelope of time are disproportionately males.

This is what China created with the One Child Policy. How crazy is that?

Because of this not only will there be a collapse in population, but the age of then population will accelerate in age in an unprecedented manner. Mucho crazy.

An population implosion dooms China’s economy, and then an aging population is a liability that compounds the population implosion. “Double doom,” I say.

Kinda funny the expression, “Time is the best weapon.” Pretty much bad policy that created a self inflicted wound.

Time is not China’s friend.

Cal
 
Masked off the clear pine moldings in the new upstairs bath. For clarity I have to use extra descriptors because now we have two new bathrooms, the other is a powder room off the kitchen.

The masking is the prep work required to do my gel staining which is translucent, so the grain adds this depth to the finish. Because I went to art school I have the skill to simulate mahogany, even though it is just clear pine. In fact a contractor asked if the new moldings in the kitchen were mahogany. The entire kitchen was gutted, except the original Heart Pine floor which I recovered under a tile floor and two layers of linoleum.

So today begins the layering of many coats to redden and deepen the pine to the extent that it will resemble mahogany.

The original 5 panel door needs a detailed sanding around the stepped molding that surrounds the raised panels, and then it too will be ready for staining. One side still has the 1912 finish that I scuffed and smoothed out some of the rough spots and distress, but the painted side pretty much is looking like a newish door.

The wood is old growth with tight grain.

My hope is to maintain some of the distressed original finish and blend in some new finish to unify the door somewhat. Know that the distressed side will face a long hallway that in total will have 5 doors that are all the same: raised 5 panels; painted on one side that need to be stripped; original 1912 doors; all with brass door knobs.

One room at a time…

I looked at CVG Fir flooring last night. The Fir resembles the quarter sawn yellow Heart Pine floors on the first floor. Since I only need about 100 square feet the cost is not too bad. I think I can get all 6 footers, so I likely could shim out the 3 inch over 6 feet pitch that the original porch had for drainage when the porch was an open porch.

CVG stands for Clear Vertical Grain which also means “quarter sawn,” where quarter sawn makes a board extra stiff in one direction.

At this point I think this likely would be a project I would take on. The ceiling is a modern drop ceiling that I would replace with bead board. Of course I would insulate the floor and ceiling. I have to pitch the idea of removing the short wall on three sides that has windows above to insulate the walls.

Eventually it would be an unheated three season porch, for tax purposes, but there is a large window from the living room I could open to basically heat the space if required. Technically not a living space.

Some simple math to make/create a timeline using the ages of 8-44 that is “scooped” out of China’s population because of the One Child Policy: with the disproportionate amount of boys born under this policy there are not enough females to procreate and even sustain a population; and in two decades the 44 year olds will be 64 year olds; then more 64 year olds every year thereafter will advance for 34 years and become a steeply aging population (mostly old men).

The point is that in 20 years a tipping point begins, and it will not end nicely.

Interesting to note that Ray Dalio framed China’s way of government as that of a “Strict Parent.” What about re-education centers? What about oppression of ethic groups in western China? What about the destruction of Tibetan Culture?

What happened to the Ray that I thought was a smart man?

Cal
 
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MFM,

Pretty much an aging population is a drag on an economy. Japan, Europe and the U.S. is experiencing an aging population. Workers have to support retiree’s.

One reason why we had decades of prosperity after WWII was the “Baby-Boom.” The middle class grew, a consumer economy developed and grew, and pretty much a lot of upward mobility.

China’s population implosion will the opposite, but pretty much fall off a cliff. Their economy is doomed. The only way China can increase its population is through immigration. That is not going to happen.

Cal
 
MFM.

Quarter sawn Heart Pine and fir can look similar, but Heart Pine is a harder.

The interior floors are Heart Pine on the first floor. Interesting to note that the narrow 2 1/4 inch wide tongue and groove planks are only a half in thick.

My front and rear porches appear to be fir and the planks are 3 1/4 inch wide and 3/4 inch thick.

To confirm I did a fingernail test. The Heart Pine floors are in fact harder, and the Fir is a softer wood that I can imprint my fingernail.

Almost certain the porches are Fir, and I’m positive that the interior floors are Souther Heart Pine.

Cal
 
A very amusing day. “Maggie” reveals to me that she hates all the distractions of her past as a “Digital Influencer.”

Her attitude now aligns with mine that fame is lame, and pretty much when she first started her blog it was to be creative, but then it got corrupted and commodified. The 750K followers lost its meaning, and she hates having to be burdened with posting on Instagram and having to take photographs to post because it is work that is endless and has no meaning.

Kinda funny because decades ago she said I should get a gallery and show my work, and she did not understand why that was not important to me. She was not the only one, and many others told me all these things I should do…

Devil Christian says for an artist the most precious commodity is time.

Money really is not so important to me, I worked, I saved, but I also did without… Now I’m retired and comfortable…

Anyways now Maggie understands how one’s creativity can be corrupted and commodified by others. Pleasing an audience never was my goal, neither fame or recognition. Back in art school I knew that for me to be a happy artist I would need to concentrate and not be distracted by stuff that is meaningless.

Anyways her book is about her journey and this realization. What is important to her now is unburdened time and being able to concentrate on being a writer.

Our agent hooked us a big gig that would of involved going to South Korea. The fee offered was big and it was being negotiated higher for a timeframe in March.

We had to turn it down. Taking care of the 5 month old grandson is more important to us, and Maggie has a book to write.

A good artist is good at problem solving, and that is what I did well at Grumman. I was thought as clever by scientists and engineers. I came up with eloquent solutions and made problems go away. I was a fixer of sorts. Today I use that talent to restore my old house, and I enjoy it. Very much different when its for me and all me.

I don’t have to take photographs, paint, or perform in the theater to be creative or feel fulfilled.

I’m about halfway with the staining of the bathroom molding. Still very red after 3 coats, but after 6-7 coats the wood kinda gets dark and browner, but upon close look it glows red like mahogany.

Cal
 
Right now the modeling is on hold till at least June. Our agent is cool with that and understands that with the book contract and the grandson we can’t be jet-set and maintain that life.

Also know that we tried to retire and move on from that frantic lifestyle, but we got “snookered” into signing anyways.

I’m cool if it dead-ends And goes nowhere. “Maggie” wants to move on, and I don’t want to get caught up in those last minute frenzies that are pretty insane. The money is great, but in the end it will shorten my life. All said and done, that life is not so glam.

Cal
 
I ran into my UPS driver on my way to CVS to bulk up and use a coupon to save $6.00 and another coupon for $5.00.

In conversation I asked about the diesel fuel bottleneck which seems stable or better, but he mentioned that there have been some layoffs. I asked if he is in danger, and Mike said it was the guys that were 2-3 years on the job that got furloughed. The diesel fuel bottleneck seemed to be relieved due to less demand/slowdown. I’m stating the obvious that I don’t think many actually see, that the drop in productivity somehow got dismissed and goes uncounted, meanwhile the number for GNP got inflated so it looks like “growth.” Well not really…

Anyways GNP is just a number…

UPS for me is a proxy for the DOW Jones Transportation Index. Pretty much an early warning signal for a recession.

Earlier in the week 2.5% drops on the major indexes, but this was sparked by likely interest rate hikes. Some analysts suggest interest rates have to get jacked to around 8% to mop up the excess money and stop inflation. Meanwhile there is a real labor shortage caused by people like me who retired early, and women who have left the work force because of lack of or the big expense of childcare. Did I mention there is a childcare shortage?

Anyways I believe in regression to the mean, and we had a long period of over stimulus due to Tax cuts we didn’t need by Trump and overly generous stimulus many Americans did not need by Biden, then add in Trump tariffs that are inflationary and disruptive (creating shortages) and a War (inflationary).

So anyone who thinks inflation might be reigned in shortly I think might be delusional.

There are reports that many Americans are foregoing maintenance on their homes because of economic stress in their households, and it seems that the builders and contractors are being kept busy by households that are in the upper 20% of incomes, and that two economies have emerged separated by disparity.

So far a kitchen and two bathrooms have been remodeled by contractors…

I have the long view that inflation has taken root like Knotweed, a vigorous invasive plant, and that to irraticate inflation will take longer than what most people think. In the past the inflation that started with an oil crisis in the early to mid 70’s took till the early 80’s to irraticate. Inflation endured for about a decade.

I figure that if I don’t do my remodeling now, that it will be more costly in the future, and I think as we de-globalize that it will take a good amount of time to either on-shore production, or to secure reliable sources as a transition.

Certainly productivity suffers with delays, shortages and the break in work flow in a “just-in-time” production economy. Seems to me that inflation raised pricing to the point where the drop in productivity has been masked by price increases to make it appear that economies are still growing. What I am suggesting is that GNP is a “funny” number.

The relationship between Russia and China having “no-limits” translates into a new kind of Cold War. Pretty much I outlined how the last Cold War was really about destroying the Russian economy, and already the Chinese seem to already undercut their future with the One-Child-Policy, and pretty much we just have to wait for the erosion, collapse, and implosion that is inescapable unless there is a mass immigration to China. Highly unlikely.

China over a decade ago had food independence, meaning they could feed themselves, but the urbanization that occurred over the past decade made it a net food importer. This means food is a vulnerability and exposes China’s vulnerability to food as a weapon, or of famine which is part of Chinese history. Pretty much I think/believe the trade off for growth was paid for with the manpower that depleted rural areas and really is not sustainable.

Then note the environmental destruction in China. There is no going back. More poor planning and policy.

Realize that commodities are priced in dollars and that a strong dollar and inflation created Arab Spring because of hungry children.

Know that Russia is a food exporter and more importantly an exporter of fertilizer.

All I’m saying is food in not only a commodity, but it is also a weapon.

The U.S. is also an exporter of food. I say we should feed our friends first, and perhaps not our enemies, but China has likely made Russia its food supplier. A bad policy to have a single point supply.

China has an export economy, mostly of cheap goods, but Apple computers and IPhones are manufactured in China.

While I own an Apple IPAD, I don’t own an IPhone, and I tend to not buy cheap goods and I don’t really shop at Walmart, K-Mart, or Target where cheap goods are sold to “consumers.”

Realize that an economic war began a while back, and at least avoid buying CCFC.

Can an export economy also be isolationist? Another social experiment in China that likely would be another failed policy. The U.S. is the largest net importer of Chinese goods (remember mostly CCFC) that fills Walmarts and other discount stores that cater to American ”consumers.”

Then Germany’s export economy, the largest economy in the E.U., has China as its largest consumer of finished goods and tooling.

Is it bad policy to offend the U.S. or Germany, your consumer and your important supplier?

Cal
 
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Above I predict how I believe how foregoing remodeling and maintenance on a home could be a mistake and because of inflation will likely be even more costly in the future.

I reflect on how we bought a small modest house in need of updating and remodeling that languished on the market and went unloved during a reported housing shortage. We saw treasure when others saw junk, and now it seems that in our location a housing shortage persists, about an hour north of NYC by train.

More or less we got a good deal and bought a cheap house that has mucho potential, and a prime location near the Hudson River and also near wilderness. Know that because the City of Peekskill is only about 4 square miles with a

Not a lot of land to build new housing, but in fact we own a second building lot that came with the house that is buildable, that kinda got bundled in the sale. 40x100 is a building lot and we own a 40x200. Bonus is a corner lot on a dead end that borders public land that cannot be developed, right on the edge of the city, with only one next door neighbor for privacy.

Detached two car garage, even though a tiny house, but also very low taxes for Westchester, and in a school district that is in the top 100 in New York State.

We bought the Baby-Victorian in a time when the Indian Point Nuclear Reactor was just starting to be decommissioned so the proximity and reason not to buy a nearby home that depressed prices kinda went away. Meanwhile Indian Point more or less paid for the great school district. Know that the regular Peekskill School District does not rate highly mainly because Peekskill is an immigrant community and many residents have English as a second language, and therefore lower test scores.

Three years ago we locked in a rate near record low mortgage rates well under 3%.

So pretty much “Maggie” and I “caught a falling knife” which they say on Wall Street is not easy to do.

Unfortunately going forward most people will get priced out by inflation and interest rates that will be high.

Another thought comes to mind that involves electric vehicles, and that it seems like gas combustion engines are being phased out in some states with a 10-12 year timeline, and in 10-12 years I won’t be able to buy a non electric car. I’m kinda grandfathered in with a 2015 Audi A4 now with 30K miles on the odometer, and a 1966 Chevy C-10.

I foresee a supply and demand imbalance, where gas combustion vehicles will have redeeming value added because of the expense of a new electric vehicle that will be beyond the reach of many.

Welcome to the age of shortages.

Then speculate that Ray Dalio’s idea that India will overtake China as the world’s source of cheap labor rings true.

India will soon overtake China as being the most populated country, and as a bonus the median age in India is somewhere near the mid-thirties.

I can see Apple products and IPhones being made in India instead of China. Simply business.

Jobs have already moved from China to other countries because of the cost of labor.

Cal
 
Morning Cal,

Your experiences are similar to mine in many ways. Continue to think about photography, even though you are occupied right now.

Cuyahoga Falls 8x10 HP5 PMK 240 Symmar Ektalure R by Nokton48, on Flickr

Since you like 8x10, here is one of mine.

Cuyahoga Falls 8x10 Sinar Norma 240 Symmar HP5 (not +) PMK+ Ektalure 8x10 print Ektanol Print Developer. Using a lot of tilt correction. Focus on the far, then tilt until the near is sharp.
 
Dan,

Very nice. Also nice contrast and detail.

I try to get this IQ in smaller formats. I think this is a display of skill, but often it goes unnoticed.

I once was asked by a gallery owner, “Why do you print so big?”

Pretty much he was clueless about how printing big is hard because it displays clearly any mistake.

The way I shoot is very much like a large format shooter, where I minimize post processing, where I optimize the image at time of image capture as if making a negative for contact printing.

I use filters to get the contrast I want upon exposure, and avoid amplifying “digital noise.”

I believe large format would suit me well.

Cal
 
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