NYC Journal

The “Gateway To The Hudson Highlands” (Peekskill) has moody weather. Pretty much it can rain at anytime, and the weather can be unpredictable. The forecast can be for rain and overcast, and it will be a sunny day. This happens frequently and also the opposite.

In New Mexico there is an expression: “If you don’t like the weather wait 5 minutes.” It was in New Mexico where I first experience the wonder of “thunder-snow.” The first time I experience thunder snow the flakes were the size of marbles, and the snow appeared to dance and float to the extent that I felt like I was living within a massive snow-globe.

Meanwhile the air was still, the temperature so mild that I wore a T-shirt while gathering firewood to bring in sidearm the two bedroom log cabin I lived in that was 47 miles from civilization, and so remote that I got not TV reception.

Below Peekskill the western side of the Hudson River are rocky cliffs, on the eastern bank the terrain is alluvial and marshy, but further north my city is surrounded by a ring of mountains and the Hudson River widens into a bay.

Even though I am 40-50 miles inland, the Hudson River in Peekskill is brackish, and there is a tide that raises and lowers all the way to Albany.

The western side of the Hudson is wilder and more mountainous.

I’m on my third day of staining the upstairs bathroom trim. The gel stain is a translucent mahogany with a subdued red tint, but as I apply layers it darkens to a rich deep brown. The effect I’m trying to achieve is to gain depth, and for there to be an emerging red from the brown to create a “glow” of sorts depending on light and distance to create an engagement and interaction.

Only an artist and photographer would go to such trouble, but I think these moldings extend to my surroundings. The light in the Hudson Valley is kinda bright like at the beach or the Hamptons on Long Island because of the reflected light off the water. There is a good amount of mixing of air to creat very dramatic clouds, and I understand why the Hudson River School of painting tried to capture this light before there was photography.

The light is lively, and there is this interplay between sky, water and clouds. The light seems to be momentary, at least it is from the 40 windows of the Baby-Victorian.

Know that in the early morning there is a glow in my hallway though a stained glass window (original 1912), but later in the afternoon the “golden-hour” actually enters the house setting it all a glow.

Dusk approaches rapidly, and darkness is kinda sudden as the sun tucks behind the western mountains.

Anyways I appreciate this light, and it contrasts sharply against the grit and grime of NYC that is only an hour away.

I await the gel stain to dry, and then I will remove the masking tape.

Cal
 
The FED is behind the curve in fighting inflation.

One report suggests interest rates will have to head to 8% to clamp inflation for real.

The markets responded by declining 2.5% earlier in the week on that report. Today the DOW was down another 400 points.

History of the 70’s and early 80’s had double digit inflation and interest rates were raised to about double the rate of inflation.

Simple math suggests that 8% interest rates are still too low for the 5.4% inflation rate, and 10% or so would be needed to take down the current rate of inflation.

Pretty much 10% will be rude, but it could reset the economy instead of kicking the can down the road.

Meanwhile inventories are building as demand is slacking. Remember my UPS driver spoke of layoffs and a work slowdown. The next quarter or two will be interesting…

Hold on…

Cal
 
Phil_F_NM said:
Speaking of a side hustle, back in 2015 I was mulling about the idea of a bike-based bike shop, a sort of AAA for Philly bicycles. The idea has some legs and everyone I asked in and out of the bike mechanic community, said it would be a great thing to see happen.
Phil Forrest
Click to expand...
Not exactly the same, but every Sunday in Santiago (Chile) they close many streets to allow people to ride bikes, use a scooter or rollerblade, etc and I see guys set up shop off to the side of the road to do small bicycle repairs and to sell lower end items for bikes. There is always someone there getting a flat fixed at the very least.
 
John,

”Maggie” mentioned this also. This is just business looking for cheap labor.

Fact is that while China’s population will contract and age at an accelerated rate, that India has a median average age in the mid thirties and will overtake China as the most populated country pretty soon if it hasn’t already.

Pretty much demographics favor an economic collapse, unless people want to migrate to China.

I had to take Maggie to Kohl’s because they have a Sephora store within a store.

Rather than hang out in a cosmetics department I ventured into the men’s department to look at sport ware. Didn’t see anything I would buy, and I already have a vast supply/stockpile of sport ware, but I took note that Eddie Bauer shirts are made in China, and at this point that was another reason not to buy.

Then I looked at other brands and noted that they were made in India.

Pretty clear to me that China is no longer the place to go for cheap labor, and besides I have strong feelings not to buy anything made in China.

Cal
 
Majority of Apple Products are still made in China, but India, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines, and the Czech Republic were also cited. In another search Thailand, Brazil, and Ireland was revealed and even the USA for the MacBook Pro.

Seems seconarily after China India is the source of cheap labor.

The 600 mile Ukrainian front is a distance somewhere in between North and South Carolina from NYC. The Russians occupy about 1/5th of the Ukraine. The Ukraine is not a small country.

Cal
 
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Cal, I have purchased some David Yurman men's pieces (bracelets/necklaces) and of several, they were made in Vietnam. Quality is first rate though!

I'm all Mac at this point - at work and at home/mobile: my 2018 work-issued Mac Book Pro is still going strong (extremely well made) and still accepting macOS updates. I'll probably keep it another year or so, or until it no longer updates before I upgrade to a new machine.
 
Ray,

I have two old Macs that I use for photography only, and I run old Lightroom 5.1.

For Internet and E-mail I use an IPAD.

I have a dumb flip phone.

I pretty much am not a consumer because I rarely update, and I resist change. I don’t like updates and I like being familiar as a form of comfort.

One thing I have done is avoid Chinese products whenever I can. I have done this for decades. Thirty years ago, relocation, detention, and destruction and dilution of Tibet was occurring to dismantle and destroy Tibetan society and culture.

Evil policy, oppression, and genocide I could not support.

BTW my dad was racist, and culturally he was ethnocentric. I hated my dad at times for this. A very fraught relationship. The character for China is a rectangle with a top to bottom with a vertical slash down the center, and it visually represents China as being “Middle-Earth” or the center of the world.

This ethnocentric position is fraught, but it is cultural. Understand how strong is this belief, and you can understand how and why China’s policies promote a nationalism that is crazy. China has jumped the shark believing it already is an empire.

Then there is this thing about being “Han” where ethnically pure Chinese come from locations that existed during the Han Dynasty. Supremacy is another cultural artifact that is racist. Oppression currently n the news is in western China where an ethnic cleansing is happening.

Culturally other peoples are considered “Barbarians.” My dad an immigrant would rant for hours promoting his racist culture.

The last hot war China experienced was an invasion into Vietnam. China received humiliating loses. It is suggested that their lack of experience in actual fighting will be a huge factor in any conflict.

Modern warfare values three major assets: speed; agility; and experience.

Note that central planning and control as displayed by the Russians in the Ukraine is not the way NATO, the West, and the U.S. fights.

Cal
 
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One thing that will help us westerners understand the Chinese is that like the Jews, the Chinese have a calendar that dates back 5,000 years. They believe they were civilized when the rest of the world was not.

Also history is very-very important. At one point China was very advanced, they had empires, power, and dynasties.

This is a version of “Make China Great Again.”

While China has a trade surplus on one hand, the private debt banking is a chaotic mess. China has a housing crisis that has not unraveled yet. “Look out below,” I say.

I see great weakness in the Chinese economy, they have to import food because they lost the ability to feed themselves, and made food a weapon that can be used against them. Remember Arab Spring was caused by hungry children.

Many urban new cities are costal and with global warming will be kinda destroyed.

The pollution and environmental destruction is on a vast scale. Growth is promoted over sustainability.

The Belt And Road “good-will” kinda backfired and now is “ill-will.” Shoddy construction, bad design, bad steel and concrete…

Not first rate by any measure…

Cal
 
I have believed the FED has been behind the curve in its war against inflation for a while (many years).

Last year I gambled and placed some big bets on buying “hard-assets” that will either maintain value or appreciate to store wealth rather than have my purchasing power get eroded by inflation. I realize I went on a bit of a spending binge, but I also did not waste my ammo, and I have no remorse.

I bought a 21/3.4 Super Augulon in “R” mount; a Robot Royal 36; a 1966 Chevy C-10; a used Santa Cruz all mahogany Model “F” for little money (low price); ordered a custom Santa Cruz Model “F” “that was mucho costly); and built a Cabronita electric guitar.

I also stockpiled lots of bike parts, and updated my 4 bicycles.

Don’t forget we had the kitchen and powder room updated and remodeled.

I bought an issue of “The Economist” to dig in because the news lately has kinda validated my thinking and logic that inflation will persist, and the FED is behind the curve. Also what is becoming more and more evident is that a “soft-landing” is like a remote wet-dream.

One fact that stands out is that unemployment in the U.S. is at 1969 levels to denote how tight the labor market is, and a labor shortage exacerbates how labor is a major contributor to inflation. The demographics do not support a change to the labor shortages, so it is pretty much a no-brained that labor shortages will persist, and pretty much a wage-price spiral positive feedback loop exists.

So getting the help of a contractor pronto to remodel the heavy lifting last year on the first floor was wise, and then this year I did the follow through with the new bathroom upstairs. At this point my need of a contractor for the heavy lifting where I don’t have to kill myself has been performed, and now I enter a phase of moderation where I can step in and work at my own pace on projects I can handle solo, to mitigate the high costs of labor.

Imagine our government, and the governments around the world, using zero APR, negative interest rates and zero interest rates to go on spending sprees like I did, but they did not buy hard assets. Trump and Biden both doled out cash: Trump as a tax cut/rebate when the economy was doing well; and Biden as a blanket of stimulus that exceeded the need during the time of pandemic; to overstimulate not only our economy, but also the entire world’s economy, and create shortages, a demand supply imbalance, and inflation.

Understand the expression, “When the U.S. sneezes the world catches a cold.” Pretty much interest rates in the U.S. have to go higher, and that would result in a stronger dollar. A strong dollar translates into bonds being a safer bet/return then stocks so a “look out below” moment is kinda being revealed with the increased speculation of further monetary tightening and higher interest rates. In the end a recession in the U.S. would drag down the economies of the rest of the world.

So far my idea that inflation will cause further economic disparity and that inflation will price out many in the future from doing remodeling, additions, or even maintenance like a new furnace or roof…

On my custom Santa Cruz Model “F” I already got priced out, and the value of the used all mahogany Santa Cruz Model “F” also has increased. When my contractors and trades people see the barn find 1966 C-10 they all see big dollar signs.

In 2020 we bought the Baby-Victorian. It was a modest home with low taxes, that went unloved because it needed a great amount of cash to be spent for remodeling. Understand that the house appears to only have been remodeled with a new kitchen, a new upstairs bath, and an addition of a first floor bathroom sometime in the mid 70’s even though the house dates back to 1912, and was over a hundred years old.

A report suggests that nationally that even though home prices are correcting that prices are still up a net 29% over 2020 prices. In my locality the correction has been very mild if at all because the supply is so limited.

Now economists anticipate a recession later this year, but many times this takes longer than anticipated. Perhaps the recession will be in 2024?

Hope you are ready. Seems my theory that inflation has offset the GNP calculation where productivity, or the lack of productivity is masked by the price increases to make GNP a very funny number. To me the slowdown and the supply constraints are not really being counted.

One thing I know is how Zero APR expands and stimulates purchasing power. I did this to buy durable goods and hard assets.

Governments around the world also` exploited Zero APR, but they did not spend the money wisely and foolishly created massive deficits. I’m annoyed that Elon Musk got a $7K taxpayer subsidy on every Tesla he sold. The Trump tax cut indentured every tax payer with debt. The Biden stimulus was another form of waste.

I exploited Zero APR, and could rollover the debt, but at a certain point I had to it pay off. The difference is that governments can’t roll over the debt forever, and that this money eventually has to be paid back, but now in a period of escalating interest rates…

Pretty much governments used debt like consumers living on credit cards. Expect this to be a drag on the world economy for mucho time.

Also know that while China has and maintains a trade surplus that the Chinese consumer is pretty maxed out on debt. Any downturn is particularly bad for China, domestically or outside China. Pretty much a lot of “Chinese growth” really was subsidized with personal debt. These are other funny numbers that conflate Chinese GNP. The way I see it, a Ponzie scheme.

Imagine buying an apartment/homes, or many apartments/homes with kinda loose credit. Speculation and housing price increases created wealth, but some Chinese buyers are paying mortgages on apartments/homes that kinda jumped the shark that were not constructed yet. Then at a point these Chinese developers/builders fall behind, and in turn the Chinese owners with mortgages grow impatient and decide to stop paying their mortgages on unfinished buildings that may never be completed. Basically default.

Understand that in a place like China “Rule of Law” or the lack of it allows buildings not to be finished, the sponsorship and creation of state run enterprises hang, the default on mortgages is not leading to foreclosures, and the private banking systems that funded loose credit encouraged by the centralized government to promote growth has not really unwound.

What I’m suggesting is how in China a crisis can persist amid, if not get unwound for at least as long as the pandemic, and even before. In the military they call this a “Cluster-FXXX.”

Let me ask you, when has China ever experienced a recession since embracing “free market capitolism?”

The housing market in China is “Too big to fail.” I have to ask how long before this leads to a breaking point? Also China’s military buildup, they kinda initiated it on their own. Perhaps another failed policy of militarily trying to win a Cold War. Last time the competition for military buildup happened there was a collapse of the USSR. I saw it happen before…

In China I see a failed government. I kinda see how business in China is like Little League where every kid, even losers, gets a trophy.

Cal
 
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SONY DSC by Nokton48, on Flickr

Sinar Norma Handy ready to go. On the back is the rare Sinar Norma Monocular Rubber Bellows, with the Norma Monocular Viewer. With a short locking cable release, I can view through the lens if I need to. I can also insert Sinar Norma 4x5 Meter Cassette, with Sinarsix, deadly accurate TTL metering eliminates a lot of exposure variables, some of which can compound. So uber versatile. The strap is a 1.5" Domke Black Gripper, the strap lugs are Pentax 6x7, I drilled and taped the Norma Auxiliary Frame. Devil Cal on RFF kindly supplied the stainless steel bolts holding the strap lugs. I bought the Graflex XL Grip (Norma used this) from Glenn Evans, I'm not using the Grip for now. I can nicely handhold this all day long.

Cal,
Thanks for your help with this. I don't normally name my cameras, but I think I will name this one "Devil Dan". What thinks u?
 
Devil Dan,

Only the best Stainless Steel Allen cap screws for my friends.

The TTL metering is crazy good, but generally I meter using the back of my hand as a “grey card” to nail exposure.

WOW. Pretty much compact, but large format with all the features one would want.

Nicely done.

Cal
 
Now I can get really obnoxious with my old wedding flash mounted on this. A good WA Paparazzo camera that will draw attention everywhere LOL

You are basically doing the same thing with "Devil Christian". 70mm Even....
 
Devil Dan,

I said to an Irish friend, a bourbon drinker, that “Bourbon is the Devil’s tool.”

And Billy replied, “The devil has the best tools.” LOL.

Also women like bad boys for a reason. We have the Devil genes in our blood. My behavior is innate.

Cal
 
A winter storm tonight and tomorrow. They say 6-8 inches of snow.

Then Thursday 56 degrees and maybe rain…

Separately they report that Hurricanes will cause more damage in the Northeast. They expect stronger winds and the damage to extend more inland. The Baby Victorian is situated in a valley and a mountain is nearby. Although I’m not far from the Hudson River (I hear the diesel Metro North Trains that run along the Hudson) I’m at no risk of flooding.

We are almost directly north of Madhattan, about 40 miles away from NYC, but we are inland. The places I see in danger are Long Island and NYC that are south of us.

New Jersey has mucho swamps and floods easily.

So predictions are being made that global warming will make for more intense storms, and Hurricanes will extend their range further north.

Been gathering the materials to do my taxes. I’ll be using the “Inflation Reduction Act” which clearly is a subsidy that is inflationary to get tax credits for my Mini-Splits, new exterior doors, new windows (sidelights), and insulation.

”No one ever got rich by paying taxes,” the rich say.

Cal
 
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First snowfall of winter that led to accumulations. They said 6-8 inches, and it seemed like they guessed right.

The cover of snow is post card like with accumulations on the pines, spruces and bare trees. The snow was not wind driven.

I think I will cook up some sausages on the grill and simmer them in sauce to tenderize them as I do. Always good to have batches prepped.

”Maggie” has fallen behind on her writing and is near hysterical woman mode. Family distractions happened that we got swept up into. Oh-well. I’m not stressed, but it is awful being involved and swept up in other people’s mess and stress. Being around angry and anxious people reminds me of when I had to work with some crazy and unhappy people.

Speaking of work, my younger brother (1 1/2 years younger) who is a software engineer got laid off again, now he is going to retire, so he joins the 47 million who left the work force, yet we have low unemployment.

Maggie’s nephew, a 30 year old, got laid off. His marketing, advertising and sales position got eliminated in what I suspect was the result of yet another “reorganization,” one of many.

Somehow I don’t understand or can’t resolve the amount of layoffs I am hearing about (don’t forget about my UPS driver’s report about how younger workers were furloughed) and how the economy is slowing down, how headlines suggest a delayed recession later this year, more interest rate hikes, yet record low unemployment that harkens back to 1969.

Anyways what is unfolding is rather historical. The notion of a “soft landing” is diminished, and they say the soft touch of Central Banks around the world attempting to make/create a soft landing might have actually prolonged inflation where there is a risk of it remaining stuck.

If you understand “regression to the mean” the prolonged period of “free-money” that exceeded a decade and a half, it seems plausible that we could be in a time of enduring inflation.

”The money has to come from somewhere,” I say. Pretty much here and around the world there has been a spending binge, and debt levels are high.

I’m bracing myself and my finances for the bleak picture of a long period of inflation. Understand that government and household debt is large, and inflation reduces this debt if it is not rolled over into new debt. Money was spent creating debt that kinda mortgaged the future.

A new form of slavery: debt. Perhaps an old form of slavery: debt.

In the markets there seems to be a chip glut. The next shoe to drop in this sector is in the automotive sector that I believe will take down chip making stocks down further. One report says a 30% drop lays ahead. Auto makers are double ordering chips to maintain an abundant supply. Clearly this is a boom or bust sItuation that leads to a collapse.

”Look out below,” I say.

Then also automakers are building out SUV’s and luxury cars to the point that they have created a shortage of compact cars in pursuit of larger profit margins. This supply imbalance in courage’s overspending and is inflationary, it also suggests that used car prices will surge yet again as demand and the supply of used vehicles gets depleted again.

Here we go again with shortages that will promote inflation. The new expensive vehicles have reached a price point where people are priced out. I find it interesting how automakers forgot that not everyone is rich and wealthy.

Mucho dumb. Will the government have to bail out a major automaker yet again?

Cal
 
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In setting up a MediCare advantage plan, somehow I’m entitled to a free gym membership. One catch though is the gyms that participate are not so nearby.

Croton is likely the closest gym in the program, but Chappaqua, Yorktown Heights, Baldwin Place, and Mahopac comprise the 5 closest locations.

”Maggie” also is entitled to the same benefit. Anyways, cost is nothing, and I like it. Got to stay active to stay healthy.

I suffer a bit from “Chubby-Butt.” My Patagonia knickers hug my rear in a tight manner, so even though I am still skinny, in another way I’m chubby in certain areas. I would not be surprised if I weigh 155 pounds which still is a low BMI for someone 5’10”. To give you an idea of how lean I am, know that my Patagonia knickers have a waist of 28 inches.

A lot of the weight is likely just water. Generally I minimize salt intake, and never add salt to foods. My winter weight gains more or less are water retention from salt accumulation that in warmer weather gets sweated out. Know that I sweat a lot, so the cut muscle and a six pack emerges readily from just summer weather.

So I’m considering taking advantage of the free gym membership that is a benefit. The drive to a gym is long enough not to be abusive to my Audi, where it will fully warm up the car, and not rot out the exhaust system.

My medical plan begins March first, tomorrow.

Also figured out how to navigate a HSA (Health Spending Account) that I set up to defer paying taxes. Pretty much saved money pre-tax to lower my AGI (Adjusted Gross Income) to save on taxes, and then I can use this pre-tax savings to pay for medical coverage and costs in retirement. Double savings.

Another benefit I acquired by working for a hospital is an almost $100.00 monthly account for health care expenses that will be for the rest of my life. Pretty much a partial payment of my MediCare Part “B”. This benefit can increase to make up for inflation. The bad is that this account is a use it or lose it, and it cannot be rolled over.

If it were not for Obama Care, I would have had medical coverage for the rest of my life for free. How annoying, but this gave my hospital the open door to cut this benefit and save money. Oh-well.

Cal
 
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“Maggie” got an invite to a play in NYC called “Photos Of Home.”

The play is adapted from a book about how a family documented their life.

I never have been to Studio 54 before, so this will be new for me. Maggie has been there before, and I always kinda felt excluded to try and get in. Some of my friends from Long Island would wait on the lines to try and get in back in the day.

To me it seemed too elusive to waste my time, but now we get the invite.

It will be an interesting night out.

Cal
 
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