DU,
In some of my reading my guess-TA-MENT that about 2/3rds of Americans pretty much are living above their means. I kinda get this number from the amount of people who actually can retire, but it was kinda validated and reported too elsewhere.
Not so much common sense, my mind wanders and wonders a lot, in heart I’m a rather simple guy with a simple mind who may be bold and outspoken, but then again I have my ego and sense of entitlement in check.
I see many new cars on the road, and my guess is many are leases. They also say that car loans made with loose credit is as bad as the 2007-2008 housing crisis. I report these observations, but the research is done independently by business journalists.
Back when I was a big swing trader using margin, I read the New York Times and Wall Street Journal cover to cover. I learned that government and business is basically the same thing here in the U.S. To an extent we do not have a democracy. The U.S. is a business and a brand. In effect the U.S. could be considered just a big corporation, and we citizens are just fodder.
Anyways, I see a revolution ahead, meaning a rapid change that could be violent and sudden.
My view is not so much common sense, but it is having a critical mind and keeping my eyes wide open.
Certain things I know: inflation will hang around for an extended period more than a decade, and likely 15-20 years if you believe in statistics and regression to the mean. Paper currencies are destined to loose value and purchasing power, and paper assets will have either mucho slow growth, or go sideways for a long-long time.
Pretty much growth will be slow-motion or stagnant.
I do see what happened in history called Arab-Spring happening again, but on a much larger scale. The cause began with inflation that was exported via a strong U.S. dollar, since commodities like food are priced in dollars food became too expensive, and then the end result was hungry children and revolutions.
Inflation is a big problem, not only in the U.S., but all over the world.
In China though they have deflation. Their housing bubble popped and real estate speculation collapsed. A report suggests that home values are down 30%. Know that “deflation is overcapacity.” Then there are a series of bad government policies that lead to pretty much a fatal crash and a complete collapse.
China once was able to feed itself, but that is no longer the case because of its urbanization that was done in an unsustainable manner.
Then there is the expected population collapse and a rapidly aging population due to the one child per family policy that dooms their economy. Realize the baby-boom after WWII created prosperity, demand, and a middle class because of a growing population.
It is expected that China will suffer a “lost decade” like Japan.
In China they pretty much their government is doing a really great job of destroying tier economy. Failure after failure, after failure…
So while I pick on China, the U.S. and the West are only slightly better.
Cal