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Today I did a heavy hands jog at Blue Mountain Preserve. There are hills so this uses different muscles and taxes my breathing. Anyways a notch up in effort. Was a very pleasant day for a jog, 75 degree temps.

Cal
 
I used a heating bad to help recover. Pretty much a sore back set in. No injury, but I guess I taxed some unused muscles just enough where it was uncomfortable to sit. Pretty much over use of some undeveloped muscles.

I’m glad I respected my age and have moderated. Don’t want to strain myself too much, but I guess I slightly crossed that threshold. Use a heating pad and all is well.

I realize I’m old.

Speaking of which “Maggie” was hanging out today with a friend she grew up with in Ardsley, Westchester. They decided to have lunch with Chris’s mom who is 97. Pretty much an independent woman who lives alone in the house where she brought up her children.

Some macular degeneration, a hearing aid, but has all her facilities. She gets the Wall Street Journal delivered and reads that 5 days a week, and likely the weekend edition.

Pretty much I suspect could be me and Maggie.

Did you know that the average age where people give up driving is only 75. I intend on surpassing that.

I have almost $10K in a health spending account reserved for when I need cataract surgery. Pretty much it is an eventuality, and pretty much Medicare only covers basic costs. It cost Maggie about $10K in extras to have her eyes done. This money can only be used for medical care, but the funds are tax deferred.

I was told I still have about 95% transmission, and my time for surgery could be a decade away. I was also told that the longer I wait the more advanced the technology. Pretty much I was told the longer the wait the better. Pretty much cataracts are like the haze on a Leica 50 Rigid. The lenses need to get replaced because they get cloudy.

“Maggie” had very poor eyesight, but now she has perfect vision with the exception of needing reading glasses.

In the headlines all these celebs are dropping like flies in their 70’s and 80’s.

Cal
 
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The Port Strike is over, no need to hoard toilet paper.

I do have to confess though that I kinda have a rather big stockpile of Scott’s “Comfort Plus” that is kinda ribbed. “Maggie” got the name Maggie because she has some OCD tendencies and is rather fussy and particular, so pretty much she likes/prefers/ loves this Comfort Plus over all the other products.

As you know I hose CVS as much as I can with their coupons that get printed with the receipt. I use rewards and all these promotional coupons to save fistfuls of cash. I am greedy and stockpile. As they say I load up the trruck.

So pretty much I have depleted the shelves at CVS of this Scott’s Comfort Plus many times, mainly because at times they have none in stock, so when I can I load up the truck. In my porch basement I kinda had/have a warehouse of Comfort Plus, even before the Port Strike.

Oh-well. Just wanted to confess my hoarding just in case you tried to buy toilet paper and found an empty shelf.

Pretty much I have a reputation for annoying people. I kinda have a talent for this, and I find it entertaining.

Cal
 
BTW during the Pandemic, our friend Klaus reported a fist fight in a supermarket in Germany over toilet paper.

I just filled up the Audi. Premium 93 Octane was only $4.27. Now that the war in the mid-east is escalating spot oil prices are rising again. This is cheap for New York.

I’m utilizing the heating pad as additional therapy. Pretty much just a kinked muscle that has to relax. Doing insurance.

Been doing some sound smithing between guitars and amps. Pretty much I kinda do Jazz and blues using mostly the Tele bridge pickup. I love the clarity and articulation I guess.

I mostly pick at the base of the neck. This is unlike most people who play close to the bridge. Anyways my own unique style is emerging.

Also no clear winner between the Victoria Regal II and the Vintage 47 VA-20 amps. Both are great/awesome.

Cal
 
Pretty much gathered vegetables from the garden, did my heavy hand jog, and played around with my guitar gear optimizing things.

A boring day, but I love it.

Tonight the work begins with guitar practicing.

Cal

POSTSCRIPT: I forgot, I ordered mor DADGBD medium tension strings. They were shipped today. This is how boring and stress free retirement is. It is very rich, every day is a Saturday.
 
Cal, you can gain access to a lot more coupons and savings with the CVS app. No hoarding or clipping, it's all ready to go at the register.
Phil
 
Phil,

I have only a dumb phone. Also I like to have a small digital footprint.

My old school way still works, and I get mailed to me 30% and even 40% off coupons.

The Port strike only got postponed till January 15th. The opportunity to be prepared and stockpiled for possible shortages now is a pretty big envelope.

This reminds me to use some of the coupons I have before they expire.

The pain I experienced yesterday I think is a bout of Sciatica. Was hard sleeping last night. Really the first time anything like this has happened.

Cal
 
Pretty much the odds of living to 100 is only 1%, and I’m already almost 67. “Maggie” is 71. Pretty much I’m thinking about 33 more years till I’m 100, the statistics and the odds kinda support this possibility, and any more time is a kinda bonus. 33 more years translates that perhaps only 2/3rds of my life is over, and maybe I have 1/3rd left.

This is pretty generous… All I can say is I defied all the odds… Many times I should be dead, I embraced a lot of risk and danger, and many times I could have been killed. This is why the spiritual side of me believes in divine intervention.

Maggie’s mom lived to 95, and pretty much her life ended early as a result of a lack of preventative medical care that was the result of the Pandemic. She in a way was collateral damage. Indirectly she died as a result of Covid and the lockdown.

In the future I think there will be more collateral damage from Covid, the lockdown, and the Pandemic. It took us 2 years to catch up with all the preventative maintenance, screenings, and checkups. There was a long backlog also to drag this out, and compound and complicate everything. Many people just let things slide…

My dad lived to 94 despite being poor, an illegal immigrant who was illiterate.

The statistics suggest that someone 90 years old has a 6.9% chance of making it to 100 like Jimmy Carter the President.

Because of family history, and our current health histories, we are somewhat likely to exceed the lifespans of our parents.

I am a bit concerned about the effect of anxiety along with aging. Maggie is learning how to relax and become a lazy-slacker. We are embracing “slow-living” and lead a simple modest life. Rich enough for me. One case study though is Maggie’s friend’s mother who is 97 and can be describe as an anxious person. This anxious 97 year old suffers no cognitive decline.

The longevity surveys we took suggest we have the potential to exceed 100. Our educations, incomes, and other privalages add up, but also good BMI’s, a somewhat active lifestyle, and no chronic medical conditions like Cancer, Diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart disease.

No safe bet, but we have favorable odds. I also think/believe that retiring early has made a major contribution to my longevity. Perhaps retiring 3 1/2 years early can account to adding nearly a decade to my life. I am so happy I was able to retire early. In fact I wish I would of retired even a year earlier.

Oh-well. I kinda feel that I kinda have my best life right now. Also know that retirement is not an easy transition and it takes many years to make the adjustment. I would say the process is like reliving adolescence. The idea here is thinking about who you really are (identity), what you need to be happy (values), and how to plan for a path and a future on a scale of decades.

Cal
 
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The Sciatica is much moderated today. Thankfully they say in most cases it fades away after a few days, and staying active helps relieve the discomfort.

I kinda crossed the line today and gifted a few pounds of tomato’s to a neighbor that Snoopy and JJ are feuding with. Pretty much one household is far right and the other far left.

Pretty much I just try to mind my own business and don’t take sides. My one neighbor does a lot of trash talking, but I pay no mind, but for the sake of peace “Maggie” and I have stayed out of harms way by keeping to ourselves, but then we learn that one neighbor is intrusive and particularly interested in us.

The fact remains that our “distant” neighbor a few houses down the block is actually more like us. The wife has a PhD and is a scientist, she also is an activist and deep environmentalist.

So I did this unilaterally, and I just told “Maggie” who says I likely got surveiled.

Oh-well I say.

BTW my neighbors are gun nuts. Hope I don’t get shot. LOL.

Fug-‘em…

BTW I’m believe in gun rights and our constitution, but crazy people should not have guns. I think you know who I’m talking about.

Cal
 
Morning Devil Cal,
Organizing the Studio.
Octobox 150 Balloon Flooter S Strip Light Opus 1600J works great by Nokton48, on Flickr

Broncolor OPUS A2 arrived yesterday in excellent condition. Powers up to 1600J no prob in 1/10 stop increments. Through my Balloon Head I'm getting a full 1600J blast and it's small heavy and intuitative. You can "ping-pong" A&B channels for powerful sequence firing. Will work good with my EL/M and motorized Minolta SRM. The Flooter has the Gelatin/Honeycomb Holder so that is worth $250 I was going to order one. So it really sweetens the deal. I'm going to order the Honeycomb 5 Degree Grid from B&H when they reopen. I've attached Diffusion Material from Dick Blick onto the front of the Flooter, I'll use a lot of small magnets to hold gels and diffusion in place.
New Broncolor Flooter S Fresnel Pulso Spotlight by Nokton48, on Flickr

Saw this Broncolor Flooter-S Pulso Fresnel Spotlight, at World of Used Photography a few weeks ago. Went in Yesterday and asked Gary about it. Priced at $1000 but very expensive so worth it. Then he reduced the price to $700, which is about 30% of it's original catalog price in 2000. It's in good usuable condition, a little dusty inside but not damaged. I do have an air cushioned large Broncolor Light Stand, but I need to come up with a better base mount for this. Have a lot of parts so we will see. And as a bonus, I think this unit has the Gel and Grid Holder attached to it. Some of these Gel Holders screwed in the front, and some had knobs that screwed on the front. But I think it's here so a nice bonus. Gary is such a nice Guy, he even carried it to my car One of my Primo Heads is attached here. This will be quite useful to me, great for precision lighting backgrounds and myriad other uses. The current model Flooter is over Four Grand so this is another great Broncolor deal for me.

The idea here is a commercial type studio, with a 60's 70s 80s Kinda Retro Vibe to it.
 
Just got back from Saratoga Springs from the book festival. The Sciatica made for some rough sleeping discomfort Friday, but by Saturday I was able to recover from all the lost sleep. The Embassy Suite that the book festival paid for was almost the size of our 650 square foot “luxury” apartment in Spanish Harlem where we lived for a decade.

Ouch… what a reminder.

Snarky Joe is correct in that the further north you go in New York the more it feels like the Deep South. Saratoga is just about a 2 1/2 hour drive one way or 3/4’ers of a tank of gas round trip. A kinda affluent downtown, but housing prices outside of Saratoga is pretty affordable.

I would not want to live there though. I kinda stood out in a big way. I did not find a community of old hippies like I would find in the Catskills. Also a kinda display or show of affluence, as if you need to show class that kinda came out as forced. The vibe of identity and character had a lot of pretense.

Lots of old historic homes though… I felt Saratoga Springs did not have a clear identity and to me was not interesting. Skidmore College is nearby.

The book festival though was good. “Maggie’s” gig drew a rather huge crowd, and was held in a folk venue space that dates back to 1960 before Bob Dylan, Judy Collins and others defined a folk movement. The space was intimate and had a great sound system. A developer who built out a new luxury condo next door revitalized and remodeled the historic site as part of a development deal.

We went to a feature that had two rather heavyweight authors, but the crowd in attendance was notably small, and jokingly I mentioned that it would be funny if Maggie’s gig later that day was a big crowd.

It ended up being nearly a full house, but not standing room only.

A really great thing that happened is a lot of the over thinking and second guessing that is normally Maggie’s process was quelled, and she now realizes not only is it often negative thinking that is the result of anxiety, but very often wrong, and a waste of energy and time.

So some big growth happened. Also her performance was relaxed and came across as more authentic.

There was a great response.

Separately in the Boston Globe Maggie’s book was mentioned in an article that the writer’s local library has 12 copies of Maggie’s book, and there is a waiting list of 29 people. This kinda indicates that Maggie’s book, while not a best seller, will be a slow burner that lingers for a long time.

I feel kinda bloated from not eating healthy like we normally do. We did do a lot of walking which helped with my lingering Sciatica. Good to be home.

The Everything Music Theory Book had a receipt in it from a bookstore in Park Slope Brooklyn from a decade ago. Pretty much the abstract concepts were too much for the buyer of the book, and then after a decade somehow I bought it used in Woodstock for about $10.00. Pretty much this book is connecting all the dots for me and rapidly advancing me musically.

I guess I’m further along than I ever thought.

Cal
 
Going to Saratoga for two and a half days created an insane harvest of tomato’s. Spent most of the morning collecting and cleaning tomato’s. Previously before our trip to the Saratoga Book Festival I froze a gallon bag of Roma tomatoes, and gave away about 2 1/2 gallons to our activist/envoirnmentalist/lefty neighbor up the block.

2 gallons of tomato’s were perfectly ripened and needed continued refrigeration, and a half gallon of a mix of three different varieties needed to be ripened further on the kitchen counter. Pretty much I wanted a clean slate knowing I would have to deal with an abundance coming home.

I pretty much filled the bottom of our kitchen sink with tomato’s and filled three big bowls. The harvest was bigger than I ever imagined, and my freezer already is full of gallon zip-lock bags of Roma (plum) tomatoes to make sauce.

Know that there is a feud going on between Snoopy/JJ and our lefty friends. Understand that JJ is over the top OCD with mowing his lawn, and our lefty environmentalist kinda supports no mow May kinda all year.

Someone kinda calls the City called on Snoopy and JJ, and our liberal friends get blamed.

Outside of our neighborhood we know our activist friend because we are active in our community. After an upsetting 4th of July where we were invited then kinda held captive by Snoopy and JJ, an unpleasant episode that I found to be hostile happened.

Pretty much you have to be an A-hole not to get along with me. Things will never be good between me, Snoopy, and JJ. I have good reason to dislike them. Oh-well. Pretty much it is a big mistake to be on my bad side because I can be mucho evil.

I figured out that I don’t really have Sciatica, but I inflamed my hips, the right hip more so than the left. I’m walking and using a heating pad for comfort. Getting a lot of rest.

Cal
 
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My friend Tim called today. In 2019 he was in a Gypsy band that played in the style of Dango Rhinehart, and pretty much he lived in Saratoga for about a month.

Coincidently they played at Cafe Lena the folk venue that dates back to 1960 that has historical value that was the same venue where “Maggie” did her book presentation on Saturday.

Tim was happy to hear of my progress with the guitar.

Seems like Tampa will get hit again, but this time with a Category 5 storm. Hope my friend Billy escapes harm again.

We are still exploring real estate near Lake Minnewaska for more privacy, more nature, and more property. Some of the moves could lead to a smaller mortgage and lower monthly payments, even though interest rates are more than double what we pay now. Kinda crazy.

Cal
 
Seems like I have bursitis in my hips from heavy hands jogging in Blue Mountain Preserve. Likely will take a few weeks to recover, and I will go to “Maggie’s” orthopedic specialist who is a retired Navy SEAL doctor.

I need to recover and not repeat this injury. Part of this is age, likely part of this is too much sitting. Anyways I will not let this progress and the situation will get mitigated.

Laying down can aggravate the condition, and if not treated can lead to other bad conditions that are chronic.

“Maggie” will be visiting a friend, and I will be taking care of the grandson in the afternoon. Good thing we went to Trader Joe’s yesterday, because this kid eats all my food. He is in the 55 percentile as far as size, but he also is in the 95 percentile as far as weight.

When we traveled upstate to Saratoga I was expecting more fall foliage to have turned. This was not evident at all, and pretty much the same nightly lows existed in Peekskill and Saratoga, but what differed was that the days did not get as warm in Saratoga Spirings.

We did take notice of the shorter days also further north.

I look upon the world of writing I get immersed into via Maggie as an outsider. Even though I have a MFA, the credential, I see my writing as the means for my personal growth, and to kinda put myself together. I have no need to publish or do anything more. If I write it pretty much will be for myself.

No expectation of writing evolving any further.

In the markets two things come to mind. Even though the war in the Mid East is escalating oil prices have only become slightly elevated in response. It is suggested that prices should be higher, but here in the U.S. not only are stockpiles high, we are pumping lots of oil. In another post I mentioned how OPEC and OPEC+ have been undercut from the power of cornering the market like they once had.

Then there is the half point FED rate cut that is stimulating the economy that seems not needed or can’t be justified. Pretty much one could spin that the FED used a rather timely rate cut that was generous to impact the Presidential election. Pretty much a favorable stock market and strong economy supports an incumbent President or party.

One candidate threatened to insert Presidential influence upon the FED, and I think/believe the FED responded. Pretty much hard to justify a half-point drop in rates, and this excessive rate cut surely has political consequences.

The hosing market here in the Hudson Valley is kinda crazy. Very big inflated prices, and also very big price cuts. My spin is that things are rather unsettled. I think some of this back to work and limiting of work from home going on has unsettled things a bit, and particularly the part of the Hudson Valley that is not really commutable.

Understand that Peekskill is a river-town that has Metro North service, and is about an hour’s train ride to Grand Central. As explained in other posts Northern Westchester cannot really get developed much further because it has a big part of NYC’s watershed. This is a huge asset and one that we do not need. Lots of value added here.

“Location-location-location,” they say…

Of course this effects the supply and demand imbalance, and has caused exaggerated house price inflation. It is astonishing how fast equity built up. This Thanksgiving will be our 4 year anniversary of living here.

When I dig into the price/sale histories of homes around or near Catskill State Park I see how the shift I mentioned above is effecting a market that is of interest to us. Seems easy to frame a change of heart. Lots of updates/renovations/remodeling being suddenly and surprisingly on the market. A lot of money spent that will not get recovered.

We are kinda surprised at the possible opportunity to have more land, more privacy, and some real studio space. We also think that owning two homes would be a liability and want to be sensible. Maintaining a simple life is important to us.

Pretty much we would use the equity we have to be able to put down a 50-60% down payment than keeps our mortgage payment small/tiny. Even at an interest rate north of 6% which is more than twice our current rate it presents a manner that makes financial sense.

Then in two years at the age of 73 Maggie has to take RMD from her 403B, and in a little more than 3 years I will collect my other entitlements at age 70 and have a rather big surplus to pay off any small mortgage in perhaps a few years. Pretty much totally debt free with no mortgage.

Start to finish starting with a suburban Baby-Victorian and paying off a more rural home that suits our needs better in under a decade. I learned from swing trading to sell to lock in profits, and then reinvest… Same thing, same lesson, and the same idea.

Some ideas are a larger house to have attached studio space, Another possibility is a small dwelling for basic living space with perhaps a large outbuilding like a barn. About an acre of land minimum.

Anyways we see opportunities already, but our Baby-Victorian is not yet turnkey. On the outside I have to replace then garage’s hip roof and build a set of carriage doors.

Moldings and paint for the living room and hallway downstairs, and the same upstairs, plus a Reno of the front porch. The equity we already have is huge, but the bigger it gets translates into a larger down payment and a smaller mortgage. This would require selling the Baby-Victorian and renting while shopping for the next home. We would want the cash in hand to move at opportunity.

Anyways we will continue to live well below our means and live modestly. The Baby-Victorian has some limitations for me as far as work space. We would like more seclusion and privacy, also to be in a more natural setting, but not too far from say Kingston. We like an area near Lake Minniwaska.

I kinda see what Snarky Joe suggests. Pretty much north of Albany is like crossing the Mason-Dixon Line for me. I kinda stand out, but especially way upstate. Things get mighty white and red further north.

In the Catskills I would blend in and would be just another old leftover hippy.

Cal
 
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Gold I think remains a good insurance policy if you have enough wealth to protect. A kinda long term investment and a hedge against inflation, uncertainty, wars and instability. Take note that I say long-term.

Gold has gone up 28% recently, and is likely been the best performing asset this year, but there is a question whether this will continue.

On two hands I can count the wars, conflicts, and uncertainty that all add up to a continued rise, but then gain the idea of a soft landing and further financial engineering has kinda bumped gold aside.

Hmmm…

Where would you place your bet? For me likely both, but I do see less risk and a most stable future in living without a mortgage, getting a likely more than 6% sure return on paying down a small mortgage. Pretty much a sure bet with a lot less risk. Bonus is added security.

Interesting is the fact that China who has a history of buying gold has not accumulated any in the past 5 months. Know that the dealings with Russia bypass the dollar as an exchange currency, and otherwise barter, that looks to be failing and falling apart.

They say more stimulus has to happen in China, so this kinda reinforces that a deflationary spiral s happening. While China is arguably the 2d or third largest economy in the world (I consider the European Union as a whole an economy as large as the U.S.), it has enacted bad policies that are forming economic isolation that I believe will lead to further “excess-capacity” which by definition is “deflation.”

A key example is the alliance and support of Russia.

Back when Ronald Ray-Gun was President, the U.S. economy was 3 trillion dollars GNP, the USSR economy was only one trillion. Pretty much Ray-Gun doubled defense spending fron 2 1/2%-3% GNP to 5-6% GNP. Kinda crazy, well mucho crazy, but in the end the USSR could not keep up and they lost the Cold War.

Now today Russia’s economy is only 2 trillion dollars. There are headlines that their economy is basically stagnating, there is a major brain drain, there is a worker shortage, and basically inflation is rooted. What actually is keeping their economy going though is government spending which is supporting the fighting in the Ukraine.

There are reports that pretty much what lays ahead in 2025 for Russia is a collapse. This could end the war in the Ukraine is the point.

Know that China is in bed with Russia with their stronger economic ties. So again a hot war, but also an economic war. China’s policies are dumb and short sighted. Lucky for us that evil is its own worse enemy. Pretty much self destruction.

In 2022 U.S GDP was north of 25 trillion dollars.

If China is already in a deflationary state, it is easy to suppose that its bad policies will have a negative impact on the export trade outside of Russia. Also Europeans as a whole (European Union) combined with the U.S. certainly are in a better position to fight this economic battle.

Pretty much the war in the Ukraine is also an economic war. Regardless of all the suffering and waste of human life and potential, sadly, the war is about money and economic future. Kind of plain to see. What a waste, and how dumb.

Very-very sad. Mighty dumb.

Cal
 
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Russia increased defense spending 25% and defense spending is 8% of their GDP. Also defense comprises 40% of their federal expenditures.

Limited resources, worker shortages, a brain drain, and the war has entrenched inflation. Pretty much 2025 is predicted Stagflation.

Pretty much the future is FXXX’ed for Putin next year and things will unravel. Senseless war. Pretty much a destroyed economy.

Cal
 
Meanwhile our trade deficit is down, partially because of less consumption of imports like cars, partially likely due to economic slowdown, but also because of a big increase of exports like oil.

Hmmm…

I can see why gold has lost some it’s shine…

Cal
 
I guess you can see that I’m a bit of a news hound and that I have a journalism background.

I am also a bit of a historian, and this makes me think forward into the future.

Some people deal with anxiety in funny ways. My forward thinking and pattern recognition has been very helpful, and has enabled me to see into the future and predict events.

Anyways all my education makes me analyze things for understanding. An odd personality quirk.

Cal
 
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