Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I just got back from a 10:30 AM appointment with my new hematologist. This inhibitor that compliments the chemical castration has some serious side effects that can cause liver and kidney damage. Pretty much close monitoring is required every two weeks. Also I will be getting a CBC blood test weekly throughout my radiation treatment which is not normal protocol.
I weigh 158.2 pounds dressed with out keys, wallet, big watch and shoes. I am definitely both more muscular and skinny with less fat. The blood was drawn for the tests that would be done in two weeks for my primary hematologist, so pretty much I show up later and the test results will be on hand for my Cold Agglutinin Disease, a low level B-Cell lymphoma, (CAD).
So in fact the hormone can cure tiny amounts of Cancer via starvation. I should avoid or limit exercise to mitigate lactic acid or production of free radicals like hill climbing or doing Centuries on a bike.
The normalizing of testosterone levels after terminating ADT (hormone treatment) can be 12-18 months. I thought it was only a year. About a third of patients who get ADT never get their testosterone back. Gone forever.
Confirmed is that so far it looks like I have Stage 4A Prostate Cancer. Won’t really know If I’m cured until 3- 3 1/2 years after treatment ends. I will be carefully monitored for the rest of my life. The prognosis is good.
The scheduling of appointments and treatments is kinda busy. The inhibitor I will be getting mailed to me from the Columbia Presbyterian Pharmacy, I think as a cost saving measure. Evidently a year’s supply is more than $9K. My out of pocket cost depends on my Part “D” plan…
I will also be taking Pregnazone a steroid/hormone that is for mitigating side effects. I’ll be given the big dose of the inhibitor, and then monitored to see how I handle the side effects and to prevent liver or kidney damage. My liver is in prime shape because I don’t drink.
There are other risks of heart disease, high blood pressure, and Diabetes, but since I’m almost a skinny-bitch and not with excess weight these risks are minimized. Pretty much these risks are increased and the outcome of being overweight or obese.
So pretty much a 2 hour meeting or close to one with my MD alone. Pretty much a lot of blood was drawn.
After the 5 year mark the longer I stay Cancer free the better the likely outcome. Also it takes 6-8 weeks to recover fully from the radiation treatment. The bladder and rectum get irritated…
So pretty much we are going all in with aggressive treatment.
Cal
I weigh 158.2 pounds dressed with out keys, wallet, big watch and shoes. I am definitely both more muscular and skinny with less fat. The blood was drawn for the tests that would be done in two weeks for my primary hematologist, so pretty much I show up later and the test results will be on hand for my Cold Agglutinin Disease, a low level B-Cell lymphoma, (CAD).
So in fact the hormone can cure tiny amounts of Cancer via starvation. I should avoid or limit exercise to mitigate lactic acid or production of free radicals like hill climbing or doing Centuries on a bike.
The normalizing of testosterone levels after terminating ADT (hormone treatment) can be 12-18 months. I thought it was only a year. About a third of patients who get ADT never get their testosterone back. Gone forever.
Confirmed is that so far it looks like I have Stage 4A Prostate Cancer. Won’t really know If I’m cured until 3- 3 1/2 years after treatment ends. I will be carefully monitored for the rest of my life. The prognosis is good.
The scheduling of appointments and treatments is kinda busy. The inhibitor I will be getting mailed to me from the Columbia Presbyterian Pharmacy, I think as a cost saving measure. Evidently a year’s supply is more than $9K. My out of pocket cost depends on my Part “D” plan…
I will also be taking Pregnazone a steroid/hormone that is for mitigating side effects. I’ll be given the big dose of the inhibitor, and then monitored to see how I handle the side effects and to prevent liver or kidney damage. My liver is in prime shape because I don’t drink.
There are other risks of heart disease, high blood pressure, and Diabetes, but since I’m almost a skinny-bitch and not with excess weight these risks are minimized. Pretty much these risks are increased and the outcome of being overweight or obese.
So pretty much a 2 hour meeting or close to one with my MD alone. Pretty much a lot of blood was drawn.
After the 5 year mark the longer I stay Cancer free the better the likely outcome. Also it takes 6-8 weeks to recover fully from the radiation treatment. The bladder and rectum get irritated…
So pretty much we are going all in with aggressive treatment.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
There is a term: “Cash is Trash.”
I think Ray Dalio coined this phrase. He is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds.
On a side note Ray Dalio stated that he thinks we are heading into a recession.
The other day, earlier in the week: “U.S. Bonds were Trash.”
The U.S. Dollar is a “Brand” that meant the dominant economy, security, and safety.
That “branding” on the U.S. Dollar no longer exists. In my plain sight the dollar just got devalued without an official currency devaluation.
To borrow money, and maintain or grow deficits, the future is pointing to high interest rates.
Understand that in the early 70’s (1973) till 1982 was an era of stagflation. Double digit inflation and even double digit unemployment. In 1976 when I graduated high school it was hard getting a minimum wage job.
Interest rates were high, and so were mortgage rates. The work around for many was having cash to buy the equity in a home and then somehow legally assume the low interest mortgage outstanding of the seller.
Not sure this is possible anymore, but I expect that interest rates will have to go up to attract buyers of U.S. Bonds and Treasuries. There is too much risk and uncertainty…
So in turn mortgage rates will likely go up. They already have and the average now is 7.1%
IMHO this really is not so bad considering that over decades that the long-term average mortgage rate was/is 7.49%. Historically there have been times where mortgage rates exceeded double digits.
My dad was a WWII veteran, and that was how he became one of the 1428 Chinese that were able to become naturalized citizens during the times of the Chinese Exclusion laws. Understand he was an illegal immigrant. Our house in Valley Stream, Long Island was purchased using a VA mortgage that was if my memory serves me right was 4% or slightly below.
We bought our Baby-Victorian at very close to the record low and well below 3%.
Understand that the above opportunities have their history and that it may take a generation (20 years) for a similar opportunity to appear. Frame things and mortgage rates in the long-term average going forward, because the deficit is not going away unless we default, and if that happens pretty much the value of the dollar and all that debt will be greatly/vastly/incrediblely reduced.
I’m not telling anyone what to do, but understand where we are now. I think and believe interest rates from here will only go higher making debt harder to service.
Tread carefully…
Cal
I think Ray Dalio coined this phrase. He is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds.
On a side note Ray Dalio stated that he thinks we are heading into a recession.
The other day, earlier in the week: “U.S. Bonds were Trash.”
The U.S. Dollar is a “Brand” that meant the dominant economy, security, and safety.
That “branding” on the U.S. Dollar no longer exists. In my plain sight the dollar just got devalued without an official currency devaluation.
To borrow money, and maintain or grow deficits, the future is pointing to high interest rates.
Understand that in the early 70’s (1973) till 1982 was an era of stagflation. Double digit inflation and even double digit unemployment. In 1976 when I graduated high school it was hard getting a minimum wage job.
Interest rates were high, and so were mortgage rates. The work around for many was having cash to buy the equity in a home and then somehow legally assume the low interest mortgage outstanding of the seller.
Not sure this is possible anymore, but I expect that interest rates will have to go up to attract buyers of U.S. Bonds and Treasuries. There is too much risk and uncertainty…
So in turn mortgage rates will likely go up. They already have and the average now is 7.1%
IMHO this really is not so bad considering that over decades that the long-term average mortgage rate was/is 7.49%. Historically there have been times where mortgage rates exceeded double digits.
My dad was a WWII veteran, and that was how he became one of the 1428 Chinese that were able to become naturalized citizens during the times of the Chinese Exclusion laws. Understand he was an illegal immigrant. Our house in Valley Stream, Long Island was purchased using a VA mortgage that was if my memory serves me right was 4% or slightly below.
We bought our Baby-Victorian at very close to the record low and well below 3%.
Understand that the above opportunities have their history and that it may take a generation (20 years) for a similar opportunity to appear. Frame things and mortgage rates in the long-term average going forward, because the deficit is not going away unless we default, and if that happens pretty much the value of the dollar and all that debt will be greatly/vastly/incrediblely reduced.
I’m not telling anyone what to do, but understand where we are now. I think and believe interest rates from here will only go higher making debt harder to service.
Tread carefully…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
James Dimon of JP Morgan is suggesting the bond market crisis is not over. Hmmm
The self inflicted wound is still bleeding…
I don’t believe the valuations in the markets. No reason for me to believe the self inflicted wound healed so fast.
We took in a lot of information today. The do’s the don’t, and where we really stand in more detail. The level of care I’m getting is outstanding. There is a serious amount of teamwork going on here.
So the prognosis with ADT, Radiation and inhibitor is a 78% survival rate of living beyond 5 years after treatment.
The elusive question is the 10 year survival rate. From my reading it is about 50/50.
Cal
The self inflicted wound is still bleeding…
I don’t believe the valuations in the markets. No reason for me to believe the self inflicted wound healed so fast.
We took in a lot of information today. The do’s the don’t, and where we really stand in more detail. The level of care I’m getting is outstanding. There is a serious amount of teamwork going on here.
So the prognosis with ADT, Radiation and inhibitor is a 78% survival rate of living beyond 5 years after treatment.
The elusive question is the 10 year survival rate. From my reading it is about 50/50.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
So the U.S. Dollar is mighty close to forming a “death-cross.” This bearish signal is when the 50 day moving average crosses the longer term 200-day moving average.
Meanwhile a report shows some undervalued gold miners getting bidded up. In this report two of the 5 were in Canada.
In fewer words: as the dollar declines; gold goes up. This also includes gold miners as far as value. Value is the key word here.
Understand that the U.S. Dollar just went though a big devaluation, and with less trade going on, the once dominant economy no longer supports dollar demand. Pretty much an unintended consequence, maybe not…
Devaluations are what third world countries do to reduce debt…
Shall I reuse the term Leper and apply it to the U.S. Dollar? Then where do you store wealth when cash is trash and that somehow includes bonds. Obvious answer is gold, a “tangable” asset that is “physical” and not a algorithm in a block chain, or a “paper” asset.
Full disclosure, I own a gold miner. A rising tide raises all ships, and in this case gold miners.
So if you don’t own physical gold, or gold miners likely the next best thing is likely real estate.
See my post above. Real estate can be a hedge against inflation, but of course there are risks and costs involved.
The economy is coming down to safety for survival. Many will get taken out, especially those with oversized debt loads. Understand that debt loads of governments and households are at record highs.
Less words: unwinding debt, especially in an era of likely increasing interest rates will be mucho evil.
BTW buyers bidding the markets up according to one report are “retail” buyers. These are people like you and me, well kinda, but the point here is that these are not funds or financial pros doing this buying.
The market give and then they take. In the trading game it comes down to being a “zero-sum-game” where in the end 10% are the winners, and 90% are the losers. Be careful that if you are a retail investor, meaning non-pro, that you don’t get taken out or crushed like an ant.
This is a dangerous game…
Cal
Meanwhile a report shows some undervalued gold miners getting bidded up. In this report two of the 5 were in Canada.
In fewer words: as the dollar declines; gold goes up. This also includes gold miners as far as value. Value is the key word here.
Understand that the U.S. Dollar just went though a big devaluation, and with less trade going on, the once dominant economy no longer supports dollar demand. Pretty much an unintended consequence, maybe not…
Devaluations are what third world countries do to reduce debt…
Shall I reuse the term Leper and apply it to the U.S. Dollar? Then where do you store wealth when cash is trash and that somehow includes bonds. Obvious answer is gold, a “tangable” asset that is “physical” and not a algorithm in a block chain, or a “paper” asset.
Full disclosure, I own a gold miner. A rising tide raises all ships, and in this case gold miners.
So if you don’t own physical gold, or gold miners likely the next best thing is likely real estate.
See my post above. Real estate can be a hedge against inflation, but of course there are risks and costs involved.
The economy is coming down to safety for survival. Many will get taken out, especially those with oversized debt loads. Understand that debt loads of governments and households are at record highs.
Less words: unwinding debt, especially in an era of likely increasing interest rates will be mucho evil.
BTW buyers bidding the markets up according to one report are “retail” buyers. These are people like you and me, well kinda, but the point here is that these are not funds or financial pros doing this buying.
The market give and then they take. In the trading game it comes down to being a “zero-sum-game” where in the end 10% are the winners, and 90% are the losers. Be careful that if you are a retail investor, meaning non-pro, that you don’t get taken out or crushed like an ant.
This is a dangerous game…
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The headline yesterday was the average increase in cost of a car due to tariffs was $4.3K.
Today that number is $5K in the new headline.
Full disclosure: I never-ever owned/bought a new car.
Cal
Today that number is $5K in the new headline.
Full disclosure: I never-ever owned/bought a new car.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Like clockwork my “inhibitor” got approval.
Now the question is my out of pocket cost.
I wisely paid out for a Part “D” plan in my health insurance, but what is up in the air is the coverage…
Cal
Now the question is my out of pocket cost.
I wisely paid out for a Part “D” plan in my health insurance, but what is up in the air is the coverage…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I have been thinking of Devil Dan. What he does, he does well.
I was thinking of Ansel Adams and how he can capture the beauty and drama of a tree. Not easy to do.
Then I think of what DD does with his compositions. Not easy to do. Anyways I don’t think I could do what DD does.
How do you make a single object interesting? Hmmm…
BTW he must be a bit of a ham because he presents much of these shots as “just tests.” LOL.
Cal
I was thinking of Ansel Adams and how he can capture the beauty and drama of a tree. Not easy to do.
Then I think of what DD does with his compositions. Not easy to do. Anyways I don’t think I could do what DD does.
How do you make a single object interesting? Hmmm…
BTW he must be a bit of a ham because he presents much of these shots as “just tests.” LOL.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Here is a weapon of massive destruction. Say a certain un-named country who holds a lot of U.S. bonds decides to take the economic hit and sell their bonds around the time of a U.S. Bond auction at a loss.
First thing is the added supply would be an oversupply and likely suppress the sales of the auction, but that is not how these auctions work. Bond Auctions are secrete written bids that get sorted out later after the action is closed.
Hmmm… could this surprise attack on bond prices, a manipulation of timed supply, lead to big losses that might take out a U.S. bank and and create a financial crisis and further instability?
Shooting, I mean selling this ammo would mean losses for the un-named country that holds said large amounts of U.S. bonds, but could the economic destruction be worth it?
I don’t know?
Anyways a way to destroy a bond market, possible take out a major bank, and cause mucho pain. Clever engineering…
Don’t have to shoot all your ammo either to prove a point. Pretty much like in photography, a test shot.
BTW I have an art background, and this is my imagination. Hope it is impractical…
Cal
First thing is the added supply would be an oversupply and likely suppress the sales of the auction, but that is not how these auctions work. Bond Auctions are secrete written bids that get sorted out later after the action is closed.
Hmmm… could this surprise attack on bond prices, a manipulation of timed supply, lead to big losses that might take out a U.S. bank and and create a financial crisis and further instability?
Shooting, I mean selling this ammo would mean losses for the un-named country that holds said large amounts of U.S. bonds, but could the economic destruction be worth it?
I don’t know?
Anyways a way to destroy a bond market, possible take out a major bank, and cause mucho pain. Clever engineering…
Don’t have to shoot all your ammo either to prove a point. Pretty much like in photography, a test shot.
BTW I have an art background, and this is my imagination. Hope it is impractical…
Cal
DownUnder
Nikon Nomad
Likewise. I bought my (our) last car, an Audi, in 1990. We still have it. My SO drives it, mostly only locally. As a good German product it can still be serviced, and it runs well on long road trips. So win-win for us.
I also gave up my driver's license in 1991. That's a long story and I won't relate it here, nothing to do with photography. Suffices to say I've yet to regret it and I get along just fine without driving. ('Here I'm cheating a little, my SO does all that for us.)
I can't remember when I bought a new camera. Oh - yes, I do. in 2009. A Nikon D90 which we still have and use. A fine camera, one of Nikon's classic trend-setters. Also the camera that finally got me into digital.
Sad that you now have to pay more for your new cars - the higher difference being basically the price of a fairly decent used car. But that's life. To be somewhat biblical about it, you reap what you plant.
The obvious solution of course, is to not buy a new car for the next year, or even the next four years. But obvious solutions aren't usually popular with the low-mind consumerised masses.
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Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
I'm trying to think if I've ever bought a new camera. I certainly have never bought a new car, and only once did I ever buy a new bicycle, but that was employee purchased at wholesale cost back in 2009 when I worked for a shop and was part of the Temple U cycling team.
I did buy a factory refurbished Nikon D100 back in late 2003. I think the same goes for lenses, never bought a new one that I can recall.
Phil
I did buy a factory refurbished Nikon D100 back in late 2003. I think the same goes for lenses, never bought a new one that I can recall.
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I drank the Digital Leica Cool-Aid and bought new a M9-M, a SL, and a SL2.
Still own the M9-M and the SL2. Gifted the SL to a friend.
Probably worse than the bodies are the two Leica L-glass lenses: the Ma-mouth 50 Lux; and the APO 35 Cron. These are two mighty crazy lenses.
Like my bikes I buy to keep.
I like old gear, and I still have a “Camera Museum” according to our friend John.
I admire the 1966 C-10 stored in my garage. One-day…
Cal
Still own the M9-M and the SL2. Gifted the SL to a friend.
Probably worse than the bodies are the two Leica L-glass lenses: the Ma-mouth 50 Lux; and the APO 35 Cron. These are two mighty crazy lenses.
Like my bikes I buy to keep.
I like old gear, and I still have a “Camera Museum” according to our friend John.
I admire the 1966 C-10 stored in my garage. One-day…
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Oh yeah, that M9 was actually new, forgot about that one. Incredible pain in the butt it was. I guess it's a forgettable camera in my experience.
Phil
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold’s newest Intra-Day High is $3263.00. Read an estimate $3.5K to $4K in 2025.
This means the dollar tanks in purchasing power, and either a painful slowdown or a recession. Inflation will spike over 5%, and then kinda settle into the 4.5% range for the next 5 years. This will erode wealth. The cost of living will be climbing for a while, but in the meantime everyone gets poorer.
Sounds like stagflation to me.
Today I will load a U-Haul and help the kids move. I helped them move in, and the condo they rented was on the second floor. Should be easier moving out.
Doing a rotation through my electric guitars is an interesting exercise. Just so interesting pulling the best sound from each, as each one has its own personality and character.
It is April 12th and there is snow on the grass and roof here at the Baby-Victorian.
Although not New Mexico, at times the expression “If you don’t like the weather wait 5 minutes” at times applies to the Hudson Valley. Since Peekskill is the Gateway to the Hudson Highlands, we are the transition from river valley to a mountain river valley.
Cal
This means the dollar tanks in purchasing power, and either a painful slowdown or a recession. Inflation will spike over 5%, and then kinda settle into the 4.5% range for the next 5 years. This will erode wealth. The cost of living will be climbing for a while, but in the meantime everyone gets poorer.
Sounds like stagflation to me.
Today I will load a U-Haul and help the kids move. I helped them move in, and the condo they rented was on the second floor. Should be easier moving out.
Doing a rotation through my electric guitars is an interesting exercise. Just so interesting pulling the best sound from each, as each one has its own personality and character.
It is April 12th and there is snow on the grass and roof here at the Baby-Victorian.
Although not New Mexico, at times the expression “If you don’t like the weather wait 5 minutes” at times applies to the Hudson Valley. Since Peekskill is the Gateway to the Hudson Highlands, we are the transition from river valley to a mountain river valley.
Cal
Prest_400
Multiformat
I have been a bit deceived at this winter season in my part of Scandinavia, just about a week of snow throughout! The latest it has snowed about here is 20 something of April but spring weather has been hanging around quite a bit so far.
Interestingly I have a strange transportation habit, locally it's bike, regionally with trains and metro and then flying quite a bit around europe. I am a bit pissed off that I need to rent a car on a long weekend trip and somehow the prices doubled last week.
About buying used, only bought a new camera in 2019. Even used bodies seem overpriced, I was pondering to renewing my m43 but ironically the main reason for that is to get high resolution sensor shift for scanning film...
Interestingly I have a strange transportation habit, locally it's bike, regionally with trains and metro and then flying quite a bit around europe. I am a bit pissed off that I need to rent a car on a long weekend trip and somehow the prices doubled last week.
About buying used, only bought a new camera in 2019. Even used bodies seem overpriced, I was pondering to renewing my m43 but ironically the main reason for that is to get high resolution sensor shift for scanning film...
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Interest on the U.S. deficit is 1 trillion dollars a year already, and our deficit increases every year.
The FED will print money (QE) and pretty much purchasing power will get eroded further.
Not good. Pretty much we are on a path that is called a debt death spiral. At some point our debt will become to big and because of risk of default no one will buy our debt (bonds).
********************
The kid’s neighborhood is on part of a peninsula that just into a rather large lake. Around Carmel are a series of large lakes. Not far away is the Harlem Valley and also Brewster which is very close to Connecticut.
I did alright loading and moving. I do feel the lower energy level that is part of the fem-out.
My second hematologist also sent out some of my blood for genetic testing. I was pretty much against 23&Me type of testing, but this has a legitimate medical reason. I wonder what I might learn?
So I’m tired now from the moving work, but I feel relaxed. The hot shower felt great.
It was rewarding seeing the grandkids.
Cal
The FED will print money (QE) and pretty much purchasing power will get eroded further.
Not good. Pretty much we are on a path that is called a debt death spiral. At some point our debt will become to big and because of risk of default no one will buy our debt (bonds).
********************
The kid’s neighborhood is on part of a peninsula that just into a rather large lake. Around Carmel are a series of large lakes. Not far away is the Harlem Valley and also Brewster which is very close to Connecticut.
I did alright loading and moving. I do feel the lower energy level that is part of the fem-out.
My second hematologist also sent out some of my blood for genetic testing. I was pretty much against 23&Me type of testing, but this has a legitimate medical reason. I wonder what I might learn?
So I’m tired now from the moving work, but I feel relaxed. The hot shower felt great.
It was rewarding seeing the grandkids.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Around May 3rd I should have results from genetic testing. I’ll find out if I have any Cancer in my genes. Good to know what my future might bring.
Cal
Cal
DownUnder
Nikon Nomad
A lot from you for us (me) to read and think about on this page. And interesting comments from you in #5321 and onward.
1 I reckon Ray Dallio didn't coin that phrase. He borrowed and inverted it from one that has been around for decades - "trash is cash". The jury is mostly out on Dally and his financial dallying. Let's maybe agree that he did some good, a fair bit of not so good, and a lot of in-the-middle. He was (and still is) building his nest and feathering it, in the good old American way.
2 His comment that you-all are heading into a recession needs to be considered. IRRC a recession requires three quarters (= nine months) of downward growth. Thanks to recent political events your country may beheaded into a full-blown depression. We can only hope it won't be like the one in 1929, which crippled your economy for almost a full decade and took the efforts of one of your most outstanding presidents, FDR, to turn things around. Also a war that stimulated the American economy by shifting it all entirely to defence production. We in most of the rest of the world are all hoping it won't come to this, but in view of the amazing political events of the past month, well, who knows?
3 A little further on you wrote, US home mortgage rates are now on average 7.1%. Let me quote Google on this: "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US is currently around 6.62%. This rate has seen a slight decrease in recent weeks, edging down from 6.7% in the week ending March 28, 2025. Rates for other loan types, such as 15-year fixed and jumbo loans, also vary, with 15-year fixed rates around 5.82% and 30-year jumbo rates around 7.20%, according to Trading Economics and Mortgage News Daily."
I know all about fixed rates, as we have one on our hacienda out int he bush in Australia. Not as good as the one on yours in NY State, but close. As for the rest, I'm not sure what a Jumbo Loan is, so back to Google I went, and got this: "Jumbo mortgage rates in the US, for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, are currently around 6.77%. For a 15-year fixed-rate loan, rates are typically around 6.11%. Adjustable-rate jumbo loans (ARMs) like 7/1 ARMs can be found at rates around 7.56%. "
We don't have these, at least not by the same name, here in Australia, and I for one am greatly thankful for it.
A little more Googling now, for the purpose of comparisons. How much do we pay in Australia for our homes? I again asked Google this, and got: "The average home mortgage rate in Australia is around 6.27%.This rate is for new owner-occupier home loans."
To be kept in mind that mortgage rates are much like the weather and our bipolar Ozbuck, up and down as the winds of global events (and of course business) push them to and fro.
Thankful I am, for my 10 year loan with a small, highly reputable credit union, which is far lower, in fact close to the home loan interest on your mini mansion in Peekskill. Like you, our main goal is to have this paid off by 2027 (we took it out in 2023) to save on interest. Even with the usual penalty for early payment we will be ahead by a great rate of knots, as they say at sea.
It's important to remember that in our crazy pre-apocalypse world out here in Australia, three bedroom bungalows on small blocks and with distinctly meh! design and build are now selling for AUD $1 million and up. Even with our lousy 60 cent dollars, that's a lot of money for us, tho' you guys buying up stuff with Yankee dollars get a 40% discount on buying down here. Our weather is pretty lousy and these days it's hotting up like we live permanently in a sauna, with even our eucalyptus trees starting to wither and die from climate change. But food is good and wine is great down here, people are friendly and the cost of living isn't what it used to be, but it's bearable. We have a lot to be thankful for, and with a national election coming up in May, we have a fair chance of getting rid of the environmental vandals who run our political-business partnership system. So life's okay.
That about does me for #5321. I'll now go on reading and see what stray thoughts go through my cranium.
So why am I posting all this? Even I have wondered about that. For the heck of it. Maybe to stimulate more interesting discussion. We get heaps of that in this thread, and a lot of good info and data gets passed on. Well and good.
It's good to have you back, BTW. I for one have learned a lot about a few things here, and I look forward to your latest in-your-face outlook on the world and how it is. As I'm sure many others do.
Thanks also to RFF for letting you go on posting all this. Our insane planet needs more open minds brave enough to say and write what they think and believe in.
As always, wishing you all the best and every success in your ongoing meds. At times you may feel it's all an uphill situation, but a little battling is good for the soul, and it also keeps the body fit. Positive thinking helps, and you have shiploads of that. So you just keep going and go on going on, boy!
1 I reckon Ray Dallio didn't coin that phrase. He borrowed and inverted it from one that has been around for decades - "trash is cash". The jury is mostly out on Dally and his financial dallying. Let's maybe agree that he did some good, a fair bit of not so good, and a lot of in-the-middle. He was (and still is) building his nest and feathering it, in the good old American way.
2 His comment that you-all are heading into a recession needs to be considered. IRRC a recession requires three quarters (= nine months) of downward growth. Thanks to recent political events your country may beheaded into a full-blown depression. We can only hope it won't be like the one in 1929, which crippled your economy for almost a full decade and took the efforts of one of your most outstanding presidents, FDR, to turn things around. Also a war that stimulated the American economy by shifting it all entirely to defence production. We in most of the rest of the world are all hoping it won't come to this, but in view of the amazing political events of the past month, well, who knows?
3 A little further on you wrote, US home mortgage rates are now on average 7.1%. Let me quote Google on this: "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US is currently around 6.62%. This rate has seen a slight decrease in recent weeks, edging down from 6.7% in the week ending March 28, 2025. Rates for other loan types, such as 15-year fixed and jumbo loans, also vary, with 15-year fixed rates around 5.82% and 30-year jumbo rates around 7.20%, according to Trading Economics and Mortgage News Daily."
I know all about fixed rates, as we have one on our hacienda out int he bush in Australia. Not as good as the one on yours in NY State, but close. As for the rest, I'm not sure what a Jumbo Loan is, so back to Google I went, and got this: "Jumbo mortgage rates in the US, for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, are currently around 6.77%. For a 15-year fixed-rate loan, rates are typically around 6.11%. Adjustable-rate jumbo loans (ARMs) like 7/1 ARMs can be found at rates around 7.56%. "
We don't have these, at least not by the same name, here in Australia, and I for one am greatly thankful for it.
A little more Googling now, for the purpose of comparisons. How much do we pay in Australia for our homes? I again asked Google this, and got: "The average home mortgage rate in Australia is around 6.27%.This rate is for new owner-occupier home loans."
To be kept in mind that mortgage rates are much like the weather and our bipolar Ozbuck, up and down as the winds of global events (and of course business) push them to and fro.
Thankful I am, for my 10 year loan with a small, highly reputable credit union, which is far lower, in fact close to the home loan interest on your mini mansion in Peekskill. Like you, our main goal is to have this paid off by 2027 (we took it out in 2023) to save on interest. Even with the usual penalty for early payment we will be ahead by a great rate of knots, as they say at sea.
It's important to remember that in our crazy pre-apocalypse world out here in Australia, three bedroom bungalows on small blocks and with distinctly meh! design and build are now selling for AUD $1 million and up. Even with our lousy 60 cent dollars, that's a lot of money for us, tho' you guys buying up stuff with Yankee dollars get a 40% discount on buying down here. Our weather is pretty lousy and these days it's hotting up like we live permanently in a sauna, with even our eucalyptus trees starting to wither and die from climate change. But food is good and wine is great down here, people are friendly and the cost of living isn't what it used to be, but it's bearable. We have a lot to be thankful for, and with a national election coming up in May, we have a fair chance of getting rid of the environmental vandals who run our political-business partnership system. So life's okay.
That about does me for #5321. I'll now go on reading and see what stray thoughts go through my cranium.
So why am I posting all this? Even I have wondered about that. For the heck of it. Maybe to stimulate more interesting discussion. We get heaps of that in this thread, and a lot of good info and data gets passed on. Well and good.
It's good to have you back, BTW. I for one have learned a lot about a few things here, and I look forward to your latest in-your-face outlook on the world and how it is. As I'm sure many others do.
Thanks also to RFF for letting you go on posting all this. Our insane planet needs more open minds brave enough to say and write what they think and believe in.
As always, wishing you all the best and every success in your ongoing meds. At times you may feel it's all an uphill situation, but a little battling is good for the soul, and it also keeps the body fit. Positive thinking helps, and you have shiploads of that. So you just keep going and go on going on, boy!
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A recession can take 9-months or even a year to report. Pretty much all you need is two quarters of negative growth and that defines a recession, but there often is a delayed realization.
We are at a point where the first quarter already is negative. Know that the 4th quarter of 2024 though was robust, likely due to hoarding. The first quarter surprisingly to the FED and economists got revised lower and was updated because of a revised trade deficit number.
In context 4th quarter 2024 was robust because of hoarding in anticipation of tariffs, so maybe or maybe not the first quarter of 2025 growing negative could be a head-fake, but then after what we experienced recently, the flight of capitol, the uncertainty, and the sustained policy seems too much negativity to overcome for the second quarter.
Then add onto that the evaporation of over 11 trillion dollars of wealth. The wealth effect is now an inverse wealth effect.
Presently the consumer seems maxed out on debt, paying minimums on credit card debt, and are buying less. Kinda like recession spending has happened or is happening.
The 7.1% is from a recent headline. Pretty much this reflects the change from old Internet data that is less current. The value of your data though is the history, and realize that the updated 7.1 reflects the turbulence and chaos in the bond market. I attributed the 7.1% to a report and it has to be taken into context with the shock that built up and just recently happened.
The 7.49% long term-average is simple math, yet is old data. The point I try to make here is historically over periods of decades the long-term average is still higher than current rates. If you can afford and want to buy a house, effectively interests while not under 3% are still “historically” low.
In my book 7.1% is less than 7.49%.
Then consider that interest rates have been double digit, and I do believe in statistics and an economic premise of “regression to the mean.”
We had a very extended period of disinflation that coincided with the Greenspan era at the FED and globalization. Imagine the horror of an equal period of inflation to counter balance the disinflation as globalization faces a collapse. This is the future I see.
It kinda is a bit of a “Mad-Max” scenario of the end of the world as we knew it.
Cal
We are at a point where the first quarter already is negative. Know that the 4th quarter of 2024 though was robust, likely due to hoarding. The first quarter surprisingly to the FED and economists got revised lower and was updated because of a revised trade deficit number.
In context 4th quarter 2024 was robust because of hoarding in anticipation of tariffs, so maybe or maybe not the first quarter of 2025 growing negative could be a head-fake, but then after what we experienced recently, the flight of capitol, the uncertainty, and the sustained policy seems too much negativity to overcome for the second quarter.
Then add onto that the evaporation of over 11 trillion dollars of wealth. The wealth effect is now an inverse wealth effect.
Presently the consumer seems maxed out on debt, paying minimums on credit card debt, and are buying less. Kinda like recession spending has happened or is happening.
The 7.1% is from a recent headline. Pretty much this reflects the change from old Internet data that is less current. The value of your data though is the history, and realize that the updated 7.1 reflects the turbulence and chaos in the bond market. I attributed the 7.1% to a report and it has to be taken into context with the shock that built up and just recently happened.
The 7.49% long term-average is simple math, yet is old data. The point I try to make here is historically over periods of decades the long-term average is still higher than current rates. If you can afford and want to buy a house, effectively interests while not under 3% are still “historically” low.
In my book 7.1% is less than 7.49%.
Then consider that interest rates have been double digit, and I do believe in statistics and an economic premise of “regression to the mean.”
We had a very extended period of disinflation that coincided with the Greenspan era at the FED and globalization. Imagine the horror of an equal period of inflation to counter balance the disinflation as globalization faces a collapse. This is the future I see.
It kinda is a bit of a “Mad-Max” scenario of the end of the world as we knew it.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I am a bit stiff and sore from yesterday’s moving exercise. I expected this, but know I didn’t hammer myself.
Today another day at the kid’s house. The grandson considers the new cottage as his older sister’s house, and that the Baby-Victorian is his house.
Pretty much he uses his baby-name for me “Bah” to come and hang with me all the time.
There is a lot of natural beauty near and around Carmel. Brewster and the Great Swamp is nearby. Seems like lake after lake, with some rather vast. A country like setting still unspoiled and kinda rural. Southern Putnam County, and know that Peekskill borders Putnam County on the western edge of Westchester on the Hudson River. Carmel is kinda due east close to the Connecticut border.
Cal
Today another day at the kid’s house. The grandson considers the new cottage as his older sister’s house, and that the Baby-Victorian is his house.
Pretty much he uses his baby-name for me “Bah” to come and hang with me all the time.
There is a lot of natural beauty near and around Carmel. Brewster and the Great Swamp is nearby. Seems like lake after lake, with some rather vast. A country like setting still unspoiled and kinda rural. Southern Putnam County, and know that Peekskill borders Putnam County on the western edge of Westchester on the Hudson River. Carmel is kinda due east close to the Connecticut border.
Cal
MrFujicaman
Well-known
I'm sure the genetic test will say " can't spell worth a damn "!