Calzone
Gear Whore #1
My posts did not top list into “What’s New.”
Cal
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The markets opened with a slight/mild red screen. The DOW seems to continue to deflate. I suspect the 2700 point gain from the big drop ro get revisited eventually. My point is nothing has changed really, just the timeline.
I don’t need to speak about confidence, but think about that word and how that interacts with trust, faith, benefit of the doubt, and expectations…
When I retired I knew I would spend/expend my 403B more than 4 years ago. I limited my risk by going all cash to prevent losses. I was counting on this money as a bridge that allowed early retirement, and was part of my plan to maximize my Social Security and Grumman pension by delaying benefits. Also it made sense tax wise.
I did a lucky thing.
So the moral of the story here is don’t risk money you need over the next 5 years, and have a plan.
WWW.SmartAsset.com has a retirement tax calculator. Cost is free, and you don’t need a financial planner to learn how the tax system works, and to learn where you stand.
Cal
I don’t need to speak about confidence, but think about that word and how that interacts with trust, faith, benefit of the doubt, and expectations…
When I retired I knew I would spend/expend my 403B more than 4 years ago. I limited my risk by going all cash to prevent losses. I was counting on this money as a bridge that allowed early retirement, and was part of my plan to maximize my Social Security and Grumman pension by delaying benefits. Also it made sense tax wise.
I did a lucky thing.
So the moral of the story here is don’t risk money you need over the next 5 years, and have a plan.
WWW.SmartAsset.com has a retirement tax calculator. Cost is free, and you don’t need a financial planner to learn how the tax system works, and to learn where you stand.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
With slower trade expect there is less demand for dollars. The U.S. Dollar effectively now is devalued without having undergone a devaluation. BTW this is a somewhat unintended consequence, but since purchasing power has been eroded my spin is this is inflation.
So gold is priced in U.S. Dollars, and now dollars are cheap. Can you see why gold made a big jump? Idea here is dump your dollars and buy gold, especially if you are a foreign investor.
“Cash is trash,” as the say, but pretty much this is in reference to the U.S. Dollar.
Gold set a new Intra-Day High of $3262.30 to day. How soon to $4K gold?
If you can’t buy gold, try and buy real estate. The housing shortage is not going away…
Also to draw buyers bond interest rates might have to rise to offset the ill-will, uncertainty, and risk to lenders.
Self sufficiency here at a household level is key to survival.
Cal
So gold is priced in U.S. Dollars, and now dollars are cheap. Can you see why gold made a big jump? Idea here is dump your dollars and buy gold, especially if you are a foreign investor.
“Cash is trash,” as the say, but pretty much this is in reference to the U.S. Dollar.
Gold set a new Intra-Day High of $3262.30 to day. How soon to $4K gold?
If you can’t buy gold, try and buy real estate. The housing shortage is not going away…
Also to draw buyers bond interest rates might have to rise to offset the ill-will, uncertainty, and risk to lenders.
Self sufficiency here at a household level is key to survival.
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Cal,
I think it's a setting or just the way RFF sorts things these days, not any intentional censorship.
Phil
jszokoli
Well-known
I think it's also it some sort of category this string is in. I remember that you could not post images to the New York meet-up threads either.
Joe
Joe
jszokoli
Well-known
OK, now it does look like your right, and replies are not showing up in what's new.
DownUnder
Gone walkabout
Not so. I just checked up on you on What's new - and there you are, on page 2.
SoI rather think nothing out of the usual is going on.
Kudos to RFF for letting you just be yourself.
And BTW, it's good to have you back here. We like you being as politically (in)correct as always.
Food for thought, as they say...
SoI rather think nothing out of the usual is going on.
Kudos to RFF for letting you just be yourself.
And BTW, it's good to have you back here. We like you being as politically (in)correct as always.
Food for thought, as they say...
jszokoli
Well-known
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I just got back from a 10:30 AM appointment with my new hematologist. This inhibitor that compliments the chemical castration has some serious side effects that can cause liver and kidney damage. Pretty much close monitoring is required every two weeks. Also I will be getting a CBC blood test weekly throughout my radiation treatment which is not normal protocol.
I weigh 158.2 pounds dressed with out keys, wallet, big watch and shoes. I am definitely both more muscular and skinny with less fat. The blood was drawn for the tests that would be done in two weeks for my primary hematologist, so pretty much I show up later and the test results will be on hand for my Cold Agglutinin Disease, a low level B-Cell lymphoma, (CAD).
So in fact the hormone can cure tiny amounts of Cancer via starvation. I should avoid or limit exercise to mitigate lactic acid or production of free radicals like hill climbing or doing Centuries on a bike.
The normalizing of testosterone levels after terminating ADT (hormone treatment) can be 12-18 months. I thought it was only a year. About a third of patients who get ADT never get their testosterone back. Gone forever.
Confirmed is that so far it looks like I have Stage 4A Prostate Cancer. Won’t really know If I’m cured until 3- 3 1/2 years after treatment ends. I will be carefully monitored for the rest of my life. The prognosis is good.
The scheduling of appointments and treatments is kinda busy. The inhibitor I will be getting mailed to me from the Columbia Presbyterian Pharmacy, I think as a cost saving measure. Evidently a year’s supply is more than $9K. My out of pocket cost depends on my Part “D” plan…
I will also be taking Pregnazone a steroid/hormone that is for mitigating side effects. I’ll be given the big dose of the inhibitor, and then monitored to see how I handle the side effects and to prevent liver or kidney damage. My liver is in prime shape because I don’t drink.
There are other risks of heart disease, high blood pressure, and Diabetes, but since I’m almost a skinny-bitch and not with excess weight these risks are minimized. Pretty much these risks are increased and the outcome of being overweight or obese.
So pretty much a 2 hour meeting or close to one with my MD alone. Pretty much a lot of blood was drawn.
After the 5 year mark the longer I stay Cancer free the better the likely outcome. Also it takes 6-8 weeks to recover fully from the radiation treatment. The bladder and rectum get irritated…
So pretty much we are going all in with aggressive treatment.
Cal
I weigh 158.2 pounds dressed with out keys, wallet, big watch and shoes. I am definitely both more muscular and skinny with less fat. The blood was drawn for the tests that would be done in two weeks for my primary hematologist, so pretty much I show up later and the test results will be on hand for my Cold Agglutinin Disease, a low level B-Cell lymphoma, (CAD).
So in fact the hormone can cure tiny amounts of Cancer via starvation. I should avoid or limit exercise to mitigate lactic acid or production of free radicals like hill climbing or doing Centuries on a bike.
The normalizing of testosterone levels after terminating ADT (hormone treatment) can be 12-18 months. I thought it was only a year. About a third of patients who get ADT never get their testosterone back. Gone forever.
Confirmed is that so far it looks like I have Stage 4A Prostate Cancer. Won’t really know If I’m cured until 3- 3 1/2 years after treatment ends. I will be carefully monitored for the rest of my life. The prognosis is good.
The scheduling of appointments and treatments is kinda busy. The inhibitor I will be getting mailed to me from the Columbia Presbyterian Pharmacy, I think as a cost saving measure. Evidently a year’s supply is more than $9K. My out of pocket cost depends on my Part “D” plan…
I will also be taking Pregnazone a steroid/hormone that is for mitigating side effects. I’ll be given the big dose of the inhibitor, and then monitored to see how I handle the side effects and to prevent liver or kidney damage. My liver is in prime shape because I don’t drink.
There are other risks of heart disease, high blood pressure, and Diabetes, but since I’m almost a skinny-bitch and not with excess weight these risks are minimized. Pretty much these risks are increased and the outcome of being overweight or obese.
So pretty much a 2 hour meeting or close to one with my MD alone. Pretty much a lot of blood was drawn.
After the 5 year mark the longer I stay Cancer free the better the likely outcome. Also it takes 6-8 weeks to recover fully from the radiation treatment. The bladder and rectum get irritated…
So pretty much we are going all in with aggressive treatment.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
There is a term: “Cash is Trash.”
I think Ray Dalio coined this phrase. He is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds.
On a side note Ray Dalio stated that he thinks we are heading into a recession.
The other day, earlier in the week: “U.S. Bonds were Trash.”
The U.S. Dollar is a “Brand” that meant the dominant economy, security, and safety.
That “branding” on the U.S. Dollar no longer exists. In my plain sight the dollar just got devalued without an official currency devaluation.
To borrow money, and maintain or grow deficits, the future is pointing to high interest rates.
Understand that in the early 70’s (1973) till 1982 was an era of stagflation. Double digit inflation and even double digit unemployment. In 1976 when I graduated high school it was hard getting a minimum wage job.
Interest rates were high, and so were mortgage rates. The work around for many was having cash to buy the equity in a home and then somehow legally assume the low interest mortgage outstanding of the seller.
Not sure this is possible anymore, but I expect that interest rates will have to go up to attract buyers of U.S. Bonds and Treasuries. There is too much risk and uncertainty…
So in turn mortgage rates will likely go up. They already have and the average now is 7.1%
IMHO this really is not so bad considering that over decades that the long-term average mortgage rate was/is 7.49%. Historically there have been times where mortgage rates exceeded double digits.
My dad was a WWII veteran, and that was how he became one of the 1428 Chinese that were able to become naturalized citizens during the times of the Chinese Exclusion laws. Understand he was an illegal immigrant. Our house in Valley Stream, Long Island was purchased using a VA mortgage that was if my memory serves me right was 4% or slightly below.
We bought our Baby-Victorian at very close to the record low and well below 3%.
Understand that the above opportunities have their history and that it may take a generation (20 years) for a similar opportunity to appear. Frame things and mortgage rates in the long-term average going forward, because the deficit is not going away unless we default, and if that happens pretty much the value of the dollar and all that debt will be greatly/vastly/incrediblely reduced.
I’m not telling anyone what to do, but understand where we are now. I think and believe interest rates from here will only go higher making debt harder to service.
Tread carefully…
Cal
I think Ray Dalio coined this phrase. He is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds.
On a side note Ray Dalio stated that he thinks we are heading into a recession.
The other day, earlier in the week: “U.S. Bonds were Trash.”
The U.S. Dollar is a “Brand” that meant the dominant economy, security, and safety.
That “branding” on the U.S. Dollar no longer exists. In my plain sight the dollar just got devalued without an official currency devaluation.
To borrow money, and maintain or grow deficits, the future is pointing to high interest rates.
Understand that in the early 70’s (1973) till 1982 was an era of stagflation. Double digit inflation and even double digit unemployment. In 1976 when I graduated high school it was hard getting a minimum wage job.
Interest rates were high, and so were mortgage rates. The work around for many was having cash to buy the equity in a home and then somehow legally assume the low interest mortgage outstanding of the seller.
Not sure this is possible anymore, but I expect that interest rates will have to go up to attract buyers of U.S. Bonds and Treasuries. There is too much risk and uncertainty…
So in turn mortgage rates will likely go up. They already have and the average now is 7.1%
IMHO this really is not so bad considering that over decades that the long-term average mortgage rate was/is 7.49%. Historically there have been times where mortgage rates exceeded double digits.
My dad was a WWII veteran, and that was how he became one of the 1428 Chinese that were able to become naturalized citizens during the times of the Chinese Exclusion laws. Understand he was an illegal immigrant. Our house in Valley Stream, Long Island was purchased using a VA mortgage that was if my memory serves me right was 4% or slightly below.
We bought our Baby-Victorian at very close to the record low and well below 3%.
Understand that the above opportunities have their history and that it may take a generation (20 years) for a similar opportunity to appear. Frame things and mortgage rates in the long-term average going forward, because the deficit is not going away unless we default, and if that happens pretty much the value of the dollar and all that debt will be greatly/vastly/incrediblely reduced.
I’m not telling anyone what to do, but understand where we are now. I think and believe interest rates from here will only go higher making debt harder to service.
Tread carefully…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
James Dimon of JP Morgan is suggesting the bond market crisis is not over. Hmmm
The self inflicted wound is still bleeding…
I don’t believe the valuations in the markets. No reason for me to believe the self inflicted wound healed so fast.
We took in a lot of information today. The do’s the don’t, and where we really stand in more detail. The level of care I’m getting is outstanding. There is a serious amount of teamwork going on here.
So the prognosis with ADT, Radiation and inhibitor is a 78% survival rate of living beyond 5 years after treatment.
The elusive question is the 10 year survival rate. From my reading it is about 50/50.
Cal
The self inflicted wound is still bleeding…
I don’t believe the valuations in the markets. No reason for me to believe the self inflicted wound healed so fast.
We took in a lot of information today. The do’s the don’t, and where we really stand in more detail. The level of care I’m getting is outstanding. There is a serious amount of teamwork going on here.
So the prognosis with ADT, Radiation and inhibitor is a 78% survival rate of living beyond 5 years after treatment.
The elusive question is the 10 year survival rate. From my reading it is about 50/50.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
So the U.S. Dollar is mighty close to forming a “death-cross.” This bearish signal is when the 50 day moving average crosses the longer term 200-day moving average.
Meanwhile a report shows some undervalued gold miners getting bidded up. In this report two of the 5 were in Canada.
In fewer words: as the dollar declines; gold goes up. This also includes gold miners as far as value. Value is the key word here.
Understand that the U.S. Dollar just went though a big devaluation, and with less trade going on, the once dominant economy no longer supports dollar demand. Pretty much an unintended consequence, maybe not…
Devaluations are what third world countries do to reduce debt…
Shall I reuse the term Leper and apply it to the U.S. Dollar? Then where do you store wealth when cash is trash and that somehow includes bonds. Obvious answer is gold, a “tangable” asset that is “physical” and not a algorithm in a block chain, or a “paper” asset.
Full disclosure, I own a gold miner. A rising tide raises all ships, and in this case gold miners.
So if you don’t own physical gold, or gold miners likely the next best thing is likely real estate.
See my post above. Real estate can be a hedge against inflation, but of course there are risks and costs involved.
The economy is coming down to safety for survival. Many will get taken out, especially those with oversized debt loads. Understand that debt loads of governments and households are at record highs.
Less words: unwinding debt, especially in an era of likely increasing interest rates will be mucho evil.
BTW buyers bidding the markets up according to one report are “retail” buyers. These are people like you and me, well kinda, but the point here is that these are not funds or financial pros doing this buying.
The market give and then they take. In the trading game it comes down to being a “zero-sum-game” where in the end 10% are the winners, and 90% are the losers. Be careful that if you are a retail investor, meaning non-pro, that you don’t get taken out or crushed like an ant.
This is a dangerous game…
Cal
Meanwhile a report shows some undervalued gold miners getting bidded up. In this report two of the 5 were in Canada.
In fewer words: as the dollar declines; gold goes up. This also includes gold miners as far as value. Value is the key word here.
Understand that the U.S. Dollar just went though a big devaluation, and with less trade going on, the once dominant economy no longer supports dollar demand. Pretty much an unintended consequence, maybe not…
Devaluations are what third world countries do to reduce debt…
Shall I reuse the term Leper and apply it to the U.S. Dollar? Then where do you store wealth when cash is trash and that somehow includes bonds. Obvious answer is gold, a “tangable” asset that is “physical” and not a algorithm in a block chain, or a “paper” asset.
Full disclosure, I own a gold miner. A rising tide raises all ships, and in this case gold miners.
So if you don’t own physical gold, or gold miners likely the next best thing is likely real estate.
See my post above. Real estate can be a hedge against inflation, but of course there are risks and costs involved.
The economy is coming down to safety for survival. Many will get taken out, especially those with oversized debt loads. Understand that debt loads of governments and households are at record highs.
Less words: unwinding debt, especially in an era of likely increasing interest rates will be mucho evil.
BTW buyers bidding the markets up according to one report are “retail” buyers. These are people like you and me, well kinda, but the point here is that these are not funds or financial pros doing this buying.
The market give and then they take. In the trading game it comes down to being a “zero-sum-game” where in the end 10% are the winners, and 90% are the losers. Be careful that if you are a retail investor, meaning non-pro, that you don’t get taken out or crushed like an ant.
This is a dangerous game…
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The headline yesterday was the average increase in cost of a car due to tariffs was $4.3K.
Today that number is $5K in the new headline.
Full disclosure: I never-ever owned/bought a new car.
Cal
Today that number is $5K in the new headline.
Full disclosure: I never-ever owned/bought a new car.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Like clockwork my “inhibitor” got approval.
Now the question is my out of pocket cost.
I wisely paid out for a Part “D” plan in my health insurance, but what is up in the air is the coverage…
Cal
Now the question is my out of pocket cost.
I wisely paid out for a Part “D” plan in my health insurance, but what is up in the air is the coverage…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I have been thinking of Devil Dan. What he does, he does well.
I was thinking of Ansel Adams and how he can capture the beauty and drama of a tree. Not easy to do.
Then I think of what DD does with his compositions. Not easy to do. Anyways I don’t think I could do what DD does.
How do you make a single object interesting? Hmmm…
BTW he must be a bit of a ham because he presents much of these shots as “just tests.” LOL.
Cal
I was thinking of Ansel Adams and how he can capture the beauty and drama of a tree. Not easy to do.
Then I think of what DD does with his compositions. Not easy to do. Anyways I don’t think I could do what DD does.
How do you make a single object interesting? Hmmm…
BTW he must be a bit of a ham because he presents much of these shots as “just tests.” LOL.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Here is a weapon of massive destruction. Say a certain un-named country who holds a lot of U.S. bonds decides to take the economic hit and sell their bonds around the time of a U.S. Bond auction at a loss.
First thing is the added supply would be an oversupply and likely suppress the sales of the auction, but that is not how these auctions work. Bond Auctions are secrete written bids that get sorted out later after the action is closed.
Hmmm… could this surprise attack on bond prices, a manipulation of timed supply, lead to big losses that might take out a U.S. bank and and create a financial crisis and further instability?
Shooting, I mean selling this ammo would mean losses for the un-named country that holds said large amounts of U.S. bonds, but could the economic destruction be worth it?
I don’t know?
Anyways a way to destroy a bond market, possible take out a major bank, and cause mucho pain. Clever engineering…
Don’t have to shoot all your ammo either to prove a point. Pretty much like in photography, a test shot.
BTW I have an art background, and this is my imagination. Hope it is impractical…
Cal
First thing is the added supply would be an oversupply and likely suppress the sales of the auction, but that is not how these auctions work. Bond Auctions are secrete written bids that get sorted out later after the action is closed.
Hmmm… could this surprise attack on bond prices, a manipulation of timed supply, lead to big losses that might take out a U.S. bank and and create a financial crisis and further instability?
Shooting, I mean selling this ammo would mean losses for the un-named country that holds said large amounts of U.S. bonds, but could the economic destruction be worth it?
I don’t know?
Anyways a way to destroy a bond market, possible take out a major bank, and cause mucho pain. Clever engineering…
Don’t have to shoot all your ammo either to prove a point. Pretty much like in photography, a test shot.
BTW I have an art background, and this is my imagination. Hope it is impractical…
Cal
DownUnder
Gone walkabout
Likewise. I bought my (our) last car, an Audi, in 1990. We still have it. My SO drives it, mostly only locally. As a good German product it can still be serviced, and it runs well on long road trips. So win-win for us.
I also gave up my driver's license in 1991. That's a long story and I won't relate it here, nothing to do with photography. Suffices to say I've yet to regret it and I get along just fine without driving. ('Here I'm cheating a little, my SO does all that for us.)
I can't remember when I bought a new camera. Oh - yes, I do. in 2009. A Nikon D90 which we still have and use. A fine camera, one of Nikon's classic trend-setters. Also the camera that finally got me into digital.
Sad that you now have to pay more for your new cars - the higher difference being basically the price of a fairly decent used car. But that's life. To be somewhat biblical about it, you reap what you plant.
The obvious solution of course, is to not buy a new car for the next year, or even the next four years. But obvious solutions aren't usually popular with the low-mind consumerised masses.
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Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
I'm trying to think if I've ever bought a new camera. I certainly have never bought a new car, and only once did I ever buy a new bicycle, but that was employee purchased at wholesale cost back in 2009 when I worked for a shop and was part of the Temple U cycling team.
I did buy a factory refurbished Nikon D100 back in late 2003. I think the same goes for lenses, never bought a new one that I can recall.
Phil
I did buy a factory refurbished Nikon D100 back in late 2003. I think the same goes for lenses, never bought a new one that I can recall.
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I drank the Digital Leica Cool-Aid and bought new a M9-M, a SL, and a SL2.
Still own the M9-M and the SL2. Gifted the SL to a friend.
Probably worse than the bodies are the two Leica L-glass lenses: the Ma-mouth 50 Lux; and the APO 35 Cron. These are two mighty crazy lenses.
Like my bikes I buy to keep.
I like old gear, and I still have a “Camera Museum” according to our friend John.
I admire the 1966 C-10 stored in my garage. One-day…
Cal
Still own the M9-M and the SL2. Gifted the SL to a friend.
Probably worse than the bodies are the two Leica L-glass lenses: the Ma-mouth 50 Lux; and the APO 35 Cron. These are two mighty crazy lenses.
Like my bikes I buy to keep.
I like old gear, and I still have a “Camera Museum” according to our friend John.
I admire the 1966 C-10 stored in my garage. One-day…
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Oh yeah, that M9 was actually new, forgot about that one. Incredible pain in the butt it was. I guess it's a forgettable camera in my experience.
Phil
Phil
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