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I figure the next evolution in my sandpaper milling is to use an appropriately sized socket and a rachet to make things easier on my hands and to scale things up.

Located another stash of 1 inch wide cloth backed tape to continue my efforts for a perfect tight friction fit. Know there is a pinch bolt to lock down each leg.

I worked out the proof of principle, and already I’m about a quarter done.

We have the grandson today…

Cal
 
The first quarter of 2025 got revised slightly less lower, was first reported to be a minus 0.3% and is now updated to be only minus 0.2%. Still a negative quarter even though lots of hoarding and buying in advance of future price increases and in anticipation of the impact of tariffs.

A lot of this buying and consumption was a one shot to save money or maintain lower input costs for businesses. This spending/stimulus will not likely be sustained is my guess. Some people might of bought a new car that otherwise might not have to save the reported $8K to $10K offset due to tariffs.

Businesses filled warehouses to beat the tariffs that could, but of course this was a speculative gamble. Remember the tortilla trade. To keep this thread non-political look up the tortilla Trade.

So what if there is a second quarter that also has negative growth: we have a recession; and that might only get pronounced or announced as a recession sometime in the third quarter.

These businesses would be sitting on a pile of goods that could be loses or lead to vast write downs or booked as losses. I wonder how many businesses that stockpiled and warehoused wish they hadn’t.

I wonder if that car or truck buyer who made that purchase will have buyer’s remorse when money gets tight in a recession?

Now it is looking like a mucho dumb move. Oh-well… Remorse…

Meanwhile the purchasing power of the dollar dropped 8%. In a ways since January this drop in purchasing power could be twisted into an 8% inflation rate. Well technically not inflation, but your money is worth-less (two words still) and has less purchasing power. Anyways to perhaps you and me we got a “haircut.” Basically the same thing.

Then think of the timeline, a rather short one, we are still in May, only 5 months, well not even and we are 8% poorer.

Am I exaggerating? Do the numbers lie? Do you feel 8% poorer?

If I frame it in terms of traveling say to Japan where in the realm of a basket of currencies Japan’s Yen’s purchasing power went up 8%, so to vacation in Japan for an American today it would be 16% more expensive than say having vacationed in Japan in December of 2024.

I know not everyone wants to travel to Japan or has to, but the example I cite is an extreme situation that on purpose is extreme. Also know that my spin is mucho rude, every American whether rich or poor is about 8% poorer since January first 2025.

Did you realize that?

Now after that court ruling not sure how much damage control will happen. This court ruling created a pivot for the U.S. Dollar which now is gaining strength, but it comes from a point of big weakness.

Cal
 
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A mild red screen in the pre-markets. Lots of uncertainty ahead. Gold lost about half of yesterday’s gains, as the dollar gains strength.

Today while I’m at the doctor’s evaluating all the blood tests my new/old wheels that are used are scheduled to arrive for the Fat Chance Yo Eddy.

The agony of defeat last night as I assembled the Ti legs into the crown. The 100 mm axel spacing is too narrow, NFG. Oh-well that was exciting and now a dead-end. Oh-well again, a fool’s folly…

Been seeing baby rabbits over the past week.

Cal
 
Some people are betting that a higher court will follow the same ruling as the lower court. This explains the strengthening of the dollar.

In other posts I suggested a sell off of dollar assets like stocks and bonds, but if the lower court ruling is upheld and Trump overstepped then U.S. Dollar assets likely will get bidded up. Also the demand for dollars will gain strength because these dollar assets will be purchased in dollars.

So gold is a hedge. Uncertainty caused the almost 1.5% jump yesterday, and today because of risk and the uncertainty only half of yesterday’s gains were given back. Gold again is trending upward and seems to be stabilizing around the bottom and into the $3.3K range.

Gold has made huge jumps so a bit of sideways action is actually good ballast for the next leg up. Not out of the realm of possibility that gold could be valued at $4K before the year is out.

So place your bet…

Don’t forget the Yen/Dollar carry trade. In Japan they actually are experiencing inflation recorded at 3.6%. The BOJ will likely raise rates and trigger an unwinding. The dollar would fall… The Japanese will not be buying our bonds at future auctions. This means likely higher interest rates to draw in bidders to buy our debt. Not good, but this is the future…

Finance allows allows you to buy things because you don’t have the cash in hand, but it is kinda mortgaging your future because eventually that debt has to be paid. Deficit spending became the culture to live large, both by governments, households and individuals.

Governments, households, and people forgot that debt has to be paid back, and they also did not see the future or possibility of higher interest rates that compound the debt loads.

I have a student loan that I figure will get paid off when I’m 69. The interest rate is 2.125% well below the rate of inflation. Also our mortgage is well below 3%. My student loan interest rate is at the historical record low. I refinanced my loan at a historical record low in 2007 I believe. Our mortgage rate is pretty close to the record historical low.

I’m glad we bought a modest house…

All around me though I see people will get crushed like ants when the shoe drops…

Cal
 
My hematologist/oncologist was very pleased with my blood tests. The 1000 mg dose of inhibitor is working well to drop my testosterone level and my PSA is effectively a zero even though measured at 0.1

I was wondering if the stress on my liver was tolerable to basically continue the 1000 mg which is the max dose, and it seems the side effects are very manageable.

We were told that the side effects could build up, and it could take 2-5 months for them to appear or level out.

The inhibitor makes the chemical castration more effective, and this can kill the tiny amounts of Cancer that are undetectable via starvation. My best interest is to maintain the max dose. I was warned that the fatigue could get worse, but to keep doing what I’m doing.

Today’s weigh-in on a mega accurate digital scale was 157.2 pounds. Three days ago I weighed in at 157.4 pounds. In today’s weigh in I kinda had a “coffee-bladder” meaning I was holding a nearly full bladder, so I could easily drop more than half a pound via a piss-stop.

So I’m doing great in my eating, exercise, and not gaining weight as I fem-out.

My wheels were delivered. Confirmed that they are mighty close to unused. New to me, but really-really fresh. Know that the hubs alone are big dollars and a lot more that I paid for built wheels. Bonus are these new or very fresh Bontrager XR-1 Expert tires that kinda resemble Schwable Rocket Rons with their tiny knobs.

I imagine low rolling resistance. The tires have a 2.2 inch width. Mighty cool to have…

The freewheel buzz is loud when compared to a White Industries rear hub. Maybe that is the reason why the wheels were sold.

Since annoying people is a talent I have, perhaps the loud freewheel will become an extension of my personality. I tend to bring out either the best or worse in people. LOL

Cal
 
The monthly trade deficit dropped 46% last month, but my spin on that number is twofold: first there was a record amount of stockpiling and binge buying in anticipation of tariffs in months prior; and consumers spent less.

That leads to a new report that inflation dropped close to the FED target of 2%.

As an aside I have noticed some big sales. In the mail came three coupons from Shop-Rite; $10.00 off if I spend $50.00 or more and the three coupons span three weeks.

Then CVS mailed me two coupons for 40% off a single item. Hmmm… How to hose them? I think I will buy a pack of 3022 batteries because I used my last one today. Batteries are mucho expensive. Then in a few weeks another 40% coupon matures and gets activated.

So sales are down, and “loss-leaders” are utilized to draw in shoppers.

Separately there are other headlines that state that consumers are “binge saving” after having done binge spending.” A different headline says/states consumers are not spending.

Add all this up it is easy math: the economy is slowing down.

How much uncertainty can you handle? The clamp-down is happening…

Meanwhile the markets were either a mild red screen or mixed.

Cal
 
Didn't your Mom tell you about rechargeable batteries??

We've kept some going since 2000 and they still hold their recharges. Best investment ever, but don't buy the nickel and dime ones. Get the best.
 
The last minute prescription looks to be now a Sunday delivery. Skipping a dose is not a big deal, but doubling a dose could be fatal. Even a 3-hour envelope of ingestion is enforced.

Oh-well…

Sunday is some craft fair in South Salem we were planing to attend. Maybe we will go today. This is a high ended curated event.

The warm flashes are getting more frequent.

Late last night I mounted a 12-23T 9-speed Dura-Ace cassette to see if it needed any spacer. My 11-40T and 11-42T XT 11-speed cassettes on White Industry hubs a spacer was required. AJ to the rescue. Will check an 11-speed cassette later.

The Mavic rims on the new/old wheels are old school narrow rims, the benefit is lighter weight. Understand that rotating mass really counts, takes more energy to accelerate, and in effect wheels are like flywheels: they score energy.

Being a weight weenie has it’s advantages, but this compromises strength and durability.

The black ceramic rims with black spokes and black hubs looks mucho evil on a purple and blue fade frame. Actually is kinda satanic.

I will do some research on the Bontrager SR-1 tires. The many small knobs suggest a low rolling resistance and I love the 2.2 inch width for the Yo Eddy. It was a surprise/gift that the seemingly brand new unused set of tires were included. A kinda free bonus, like finding a hundred dollar bill on the sidewalk.

Call me vain, but they also are good looking.

Cal
 
My inhibitor delivery is not going to happen this weekend. In the minimum I will miss two doses, and my last dose was yesterday, Friday.

I made the return calls and found out the office is closed over the weekend. Oh-well, but I did speak with the on-call pharmicist to inquire if I should take the steroid. I was told to continue my dose.

Pretty much I accept that nothing can be done till Monday at 8:30 AM when the office is open. Oh-well.

“Maggie” is stressed and upset over this. Earlier in the week I called and tried to mitigate the bad timing of my last dose, my oncologist appointment, and my prescription refill. In fact the pharmacist had me count the 14 pills left that was a supply for the next 7 days.

In my book I’m not stressed or upset. To me not helpful, a waste of energy, and pretty much drowning yourself in an inch of water.

The calls I missed happened while on the road driving, so even if I had my phone the end result would of been the same. Sometimes everything does not work out.

I don’t think Maggie realizes how bad her anxiety is. I get the idea of “rapture” where a switch in extremes happens. Yesterday’s great news that the drugs are working well and the side effects are kinda minimal, followed by a supply difficulty.

I feel Maggie’s disappointment inflicting negativity. I sent a message to my oncologist as an update.

In thinking things through, I heard my oncologist say it takes 2-5 months for the drug level to have reached full effect. Maggie says she heard 3-6 months. This is the envelope where other side effects can happen or build up. In the big picture is really a few skipped doses a big deal?

Anyways I asked my doctor this question rather than speculating or jumping the shark like Maggie.

Already I know that skipping a dose is not so bad, and that I should never-ever double dose. I also inquired about this with my oncologist if I miss the three hour regular time envelope.

You can see I did everything I could have done, and it will be a long two years, but in 2-5 months I should know the full impact of this inhibitor on my body chemistry.

Cal
 
Cal, 80mm is a really big difference! Are the fork legs asymmetrical and the dropouts set to one side? Perhaps the legs need to be swapped left for right in the crown? Either that or you have a crazy Brompton or other folding bike fork crown.
Phil
 
Phil,

A CM on each side is huge to make a 20mm Delta. Evidently the original welded crown had some splay to the legs, and the crown was designed for legs that did not have the cutouts offset like on the Ti legs.

Oh-well live and learn.

I mounted the 11-speed cassette to check and see if I need a spacer to fully lock the cogs down: no spacer needed. The 9-speed Dura-Ace cassettes also required no added spacer.

So I have 4 different drive trains in mind for the Yo Eddy: 1x9; 3x9; 1x11, and 2x11.

Fitness bike 1x9 with 52” low and 99.67” high; Mountain Bike triple with 20.8” low and 91” high; 20.8” low to 75.64” 1x11; and a 20.8” low and 99.27” high 2x11. Could have a conversion kitted out to go 1x11 to have 2x11, but the option to go 1x11.

Pretty much the 2x11 has the widest gearing and the best coverage for use and range. Also more gears assists an old man…

Oh-well, the 9-speed gets saved for the Ti Basso road bike (Litespeed Classic) as a future upgrade from 8-speed.

Cal
 
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Yesterday we beat the rain and headed to that curated craft fair in South Salem, near Katona and not far from Conn. A good part of that area is watershed and the homes/farms are upscale, grand and are stately. Pretty much due east of Peekskill the City.

Martha Stewart lives in that area.

One of the venders was a chef, but he jumped from being a chef to making these arbors, garden fences, and benches from laurel vines. Anyways his story was remarkable of a severe ending and beginning that was driven by the need to be in nature. Here was a man who was on top of his game, but decided it was not what he wanted/needed to do to be fulfilled.

“Maggie” bought a dress, and I bought these antique sconce like metal planters to hang on the wall of the garage.

It was a simple pleasure and my planters were a good deal.

At a coffee house I saw a restored mid 60’s Chevy shortbed step side. My survivor is much cooler. At the craft fair though they had this 1961 VW van that had a bed with fold down sides. That held a major old hippy vibe.

I discovered that the rear derailleur on the Yo Eddy is a Shimano RD 772 “Shadow” long cage. If I ever need to add a 11-34T to the road bike I have a stockpile of cassettes, Dura Ace bar-con shifters with Paul’s Thumbies, and a great derailleur for the task. Brand newish with factory grease present.

Anyways it seems I have lots of options for the road bike.

I decided to actually build out the Yo Eddy as a 1x11 and install chubby tires as an option (Maxxas Minion 2.5 front and 2.35 rear). The Bontrager more road friendly tires are on the bike now.

Last night I installed the disc brake on the fork and set up the pads. The Paul’s mechanical brake looks boss. The black wheels look evil.

Cal
 
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Did some more work on the Yo Eddy. The cranks have a 32 tooth Wolf Tooth chainring. I stripped off the front derailleur. The wheels now have Maxxis Minions mounted: 2.3 rear; and a 2.5 up front.

I also mounted an 11-42 XT cassette. The bike is looking kinda evil, lots of black. The bling is a red anodized 5-hole spyder on the cranks, and I’ll be adding a set of Paul’s long-pull levers that are blue anodized to the cockpit.

The disc brake is really boss. Paul’s makes a nice unit. AJ gifted me a Magura rotor and a 2.5 front tire for cush in addition to a Rock Shox SID.

Did some weeding other than Knotweed. “Maggie” says all these “weeds” are invasive.

She did a nice job trimming the boxwoods. Now they look like hedges. About 4 years ago we bought the boxwoods in 2 gallon containers and they filled out more sideways than growing taller. Pretty much we want to grow them as a green privacy wall on the dead-end side, and a partition on the side that faces the house.

I think the chipmunks have been digging up some cantaloupe seedlings.

In cleaning up some beds I found a small oak sapling that might be 3 feet tall growing under a white spruce in the shadows. I have a mission to transplant this sapling where I hope it will become a monster tree. I want it to be near the dead end, and I don’t want it to block our view of the marsh, distant hillside, and the forest.

I transplanted some Norwegian Maples, Maggie says these too are invasive, but I kinda made a micro forest in the dead end. Some of the saplings doubled in height. Know that Knotweed hates shade and loves full sun.

Cal
 
A red screen today for the big three indexes, meanwhile gold and oil surged.

Generally gold and oil as commodities go up together because of inflation fears, that’s why they are considered hedges. Not sure if today’s surge in prices though are because of inflation worries.

Looks like the big bad bond market will inhibit the passing of the the big bill that will increase the deficit.

A surprise is the Yo Eddy looks to be less than 23 1/2 pounds built out as a 1x11. This is with heavy chubby tires.

Another surprise is seat stay flex if I clamp on the Paul’s lever. I have so much leverage from the brake lever that I can deflect steel.

Today I have to run all new cables, and then I can do a test ride. I need three rides to just bed in the new disk brake. The Yo Eddy is built lighter than an IBIS. The IBIS’s have a sturdy build for big mountains and higher speeds.

Cal
 
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