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The DOW and S&P 500 indexes are modestly down while the NASDAQ remains flat, meanwhile gold is over $3.4K.

A headline mentions the cup and handle pattern that happened in early 2024, and uses this technical analysis to signify a “breakout” to sugest that gold could surge to a valuation of $7K. Pretty much double again.

The reason given for gold and oil surging today is tariffs and the trade war in China. 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and talks/negotiations with China are not going so well, but the real reason is dollar strength weakened and is close to the April low, very close…

The dollar lost value, and dollar assets are not desired. Pretty much uncertainty from unsteady policy is killing the markets and the economy. For the past 3 months manufacturing has slowed down, so the slowdown I said is coming is actually happening.

The surge in oil and gold indicates inflation worries and the further erosion of dollar purchasing power. Oil went up in price even though OPEC+ decided and announced increased production. This is odd because a flood in supply usually and generally lowers prices.

We saw the dip in oil prices, but now that is being discounted along with the value of the U.S. Dollar. My last fill up of Mobil Premium was at $3.639 a gallon. The lowered price reflects the transition to the “summer” blend that has less additives. Pretty much a seasonal adjustment…

So we are close to the U.S. Dollar getting back to the 8% loss in value when compared to the basket of currencies. Again, “Do you feel 8% poorer?”

Cal
 
I have to remain on our first floor instead of in my basement working on the Yo Eddy. I await a delivery of my inhibitor, so I have to be on hand because I have to sign for it. It will happen sometime today…

Oh-well, my life is on hold, but this is nothing new. For the next two-years plus the required possible year to 1 1/2 years for the drugs to wear off and my body to normalize I frame this as being on hold for 2-3 1/2 years.

Don’t know if my body will make testosterone until 3 1/2 years, so the “fem-out” might be permanent. Just trying to accept things as they are and make the most of my situation.

I’m engaged into doing more “finger-style” playin with guitar. A more fleshy sound that is more delicate and also more piano like. Practice-practice-practice… Anyways a way to use the time waiting that moves me forward and is productive.

Meanwhile “Maggie” being anxious gets stressed and impatient. To me not helpful or productive. Life happens, and I would rather not get crazy or disturbed. I realize I can get crazy just like anyone else, but that ends up being negative…

Oh-well… I’ll have a meaningful and good day anyways…

Did get a chance to hook up the disc brake. The Paul’s long-pull brake levers in blue anodize look striking, and the “Clamper” disc brake caliper is a great work of engineering.

In common use is hydraulic actuation on the high performance disc brake systems, but air bubbles, leaks and maintenance are cited as difficulties. I would not know about all this, and because I’m a lazy slacker I bought into a high performance all mechanical system.

Perhaps I went the most costly route, but know that AJ kinda ordered it for me and gave me the Clamper at his cost as a dealer/bike shop. So pretty much that discount I received.

The wonderful thing about the clamper is not only the EZ-PZ setup, but also the adjustment and maintenance is also easy. Kinda set-and-forget, perfect for a lazy-slacker who would rather be riding.

Looks also evil and totally trick. The orange anodize on the adjustment wheels (no tools required) matches the clutch lever on my 11-speed XTR rear derailleur.

The upgrades and bling are tastefully performed and are just enough, not like my other bikes. The Ti IBIS and Ti Basso kinda have over-bling. I honor the old and retro by using the Syncros 135 mm stem and the polished aluminum handlebars that came with the bike and could still be original OEM fro Fat Chance.

The thing with a disc an V-brakes is that the brakes kinda require a feather touch and a highly sensitive. Also Phil is coorect: the XTR V-Brakes are mighty fine.

I remember the 67 Mustang convertible I had as my first car. No power brakes, and pretty much at times I would use both legs and do a leg press to slow or stop the car. The old school canti-lever brakes utilized to a good degree a good amount of hand strength to operate. Clamping power came from your hand’s grip.

As an aside, I kinda wish I still had that 1967 Mustang convertable. My sister kinda gifted me the car. Funny thing being 17 year’s old, she want $75.00, pretty much the price a junk yard would of given her, but I never paid. LOL. It was my first car…

So now decades later I wish I still had it, but instead I have a collection of old bikes to keep me company. My real first car was a 1967 Volvo 122 S. This car resembled a 1954 Chevy, but was an out 3/4 scale. Had balanced handling, a kinda pickup truck feel to it, and had dual Stromberg carbs for performance. I loved that car and worked hard for a year to save the $300.00 it cost me.

To me this really was my first car, and even more so than the 67 Mustang, I wish I still owned it.

Another car I miss of course was the 1984 Jeep Scrambler that I jacked up, armored-up, and installed a Corvette engine and beefy overkill drivetrain.

Then there was the 1980 Checker Limo that likely only about 200 were ever made…

So I think the V-Brakes and Disc brakes work wonderful, but the canti’s I think are less weight than a disc brake. The disc brake though is mighty powerful. In a panic stop you could do an endo by just applying the brake too hard. Kinda like the difference in a car: power brakes verses no-power brakes.

Pretty easy to get use to, but radically different. V-Brakes were developed by Shimano in 1997, and since the Yo Eddy and Yo Betty are both 1998’s what is period correct are V-Brakes. On “Maggie’s” Yo Betty I used Paul Components V-Brakes.They are black versions so the bling is not “loud.” They work in an amazing manner.

My older bikes are kinda “Cowboy” and old school. The steel IBIS even has a rear U-brake that is kinda BMX like. Not the best for modulation, and a strong right hand required. Brake is kinda either on or off…

My positive spin on the U-Brake is that it is a conversation piece; it kinda stands out as freaky; and that it adds a certain element of excitement and danger to any ride. LOL…

So instead of a car collection I have a retro bike collection, and a mucho cool 1966 Chevy C-10 to dream about after I get cured of this Cancer.

Cal
 
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My spin on James Dimon’s opinion/follow up on the bond market and U.S. fiscal situation (debt and deficit) pretty much suggests that holding U.S. assets like U.S. stocks or bonds is fraught with risk and that investors should divest and buy/invest in foreign markets.

Pretty much that seems to be what the world is doing because uncertainty looms and has overhang that points to and is increasingly denoting a slower economy and lower consumer sentiment.

BTW a nearly 8% drop in a currencie’s value is huge.

The constant policy shifts, head-fakes, threats, has made/created a hostile environment for U.S. businesses and investors.

Cal
 
90-days delay, but you are still on death-row…

This is what happens when tariffs get delayed…

They say that prisoner’s on death-row actually find relief and peace of mind when they learn of their day of execution. In a ways the uncertainty is a form of cruel and un usual punishment.

Do you feel the punishment and uncertainty? Do you feel imprisoned?

Just a thought…

BTW how do you plan a future or set goals if you are dealing with uncertainty and chaos? How can you buy a house with unknown risks?

The housing market reflects this uncertainty.

Cal
 
The Volvo was a sleeper. As a kid it did not draw in the cops. Out on Long Island the cops targeted and hassled kids. Not a lot for them to do otherwise.

The Volvo was under the radar. Also the B15D engines were known to last 200K miles. Mine was an automatic though, likely the weak link.

When I bought it it had only 36K miles. It was the ideal compact size. Top speed though was only 100 MPH.

The horns, had a pair, sounded the interval of a 5th in pitch, and the speedometer was a red bar that elongated with speed.

I still have the Volvo adjustable wrench…

Anyways I seem to have very strong connections/bonds with in-ADD-A-mit objects that to me not only have a deep personal meaning, but also were personified and linked to my identity. I think having known real poverty taught me this and the value of things.

Today I think I would have re-engined the 122S with a Ford 2.5 liter 4-banger with a HD World-Class T-5 tranny. The engine would be naturally aspirated and about 250 HP. This is an overhead crammed engine and with cross-flow heads. For carberation I would use a pair of Webber carbs.

Cal
 
Big Beautiful Debt will harm U.S. investments, the value of the U.S. Dollar, and increase the deficit to 7% of GDP in Trumps term.

Do you feel poorer?

Anyways that’s where we are heading.

“Maggie” reports that a baby rabbit that is native to our yard, a sanctuary, is basically tame. Came right up to Maggie’s feet.

Bond “vigilantes” are voting against Trump policy by selling their bonds making yields to go higher. Of course this will increase interest rates, but also our debt because our debt since we have no surplus just gets rolled over into newer bonds that effectively are at a higher interest rate to compound the existing debt.

Just imagine refinancing your home, not at a lower rate, but a higher rate…

Not good. Again debt is a problem, and as a debt spiral unfolds debt gets compounded into a vicious cycle.

I hope James Dimon of JP Morgan is wrong, but I have respect for him, and he is a very smart man.

In another report James Dimon cites that the U.S. needs to spend more on our military in both equipment and supplies. He cites that being a military power is key to staying the dominant economy. He states that history has shown that.

One of the seven key elements to establish an empire is military dominance. Ray Dalio’s book on the New World Order also cites history of military dominance as being a key element.

I would have to agree with both of them. History suggests that military strength is mucho important to maintain an empire.

Cal
 
Volume on ETF’s over the past month have declined a little less than half the usual volume. Volume is an important indicator for market movements.

Although the markets fluctuate and have recovered to some degree the less than half the volume in displayed in ETF’s denotes “less-enthusiasm” of less confidence in the markets valuation.

The lack of “enthusiasm” in long-term bonds may lead to the Treasury Department no longer auctioning off 30 year bonds. The longer-term bonds have “duration-risk” which translates into the longer term risk of not getting your money back, and also not collecting the interest due.

Effectively why produce 30 year bonds if no one will buy them. Simple business…

So next could be the 20 year bonds, then the Ten-Year…

So there is talk of this already. Hmmm… Is this our future? How scary is that?

Does this mean our economy is hurt or not healthy?

So default would be mighty bad. The U.S. is a rich country, and it has mucho assets. Perhaps some developer will buy the Grand Canyon or other public lands. My exaggeration is to make the point when there is something like 2007-2008 people sell their heirlooms and treasures to raise cash.

So if we sell assets to pay off debt, are we poorer? I say selling off assets at this point means you are less wealthy, and in fact poorer, but in a stealthy manner.

Understand that defaulting on debt is almost like loosing having an economy or having a country.

The mind wanders… The world was a safer place when I physically wandered NYC as a street shooter. I was obsessed, now pretty much the same wandering, except gathering news, wondering, and wandering in a different manner.

In a way each of these “snap-shots” involving random fragments in time is a variant of old street shooting, but in a different form and medium.

Interesting, yet abstract, or abstracted…

My inhibitor was delivered just moments ago. Tomorrow I’ll be back on schedule.

Now down into the basement to my Yo Eddy.

Cal
 
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So if the U.S. decides to stop auctioning 30 year notes, guess what, then it would have to print more 20 year notes, and don’t you think that the increased supply would diminish demand, lower prices, and increase yields?

Not a happy ending… End result is higher interest rates, and that in turn would further slow down the economy. Interest rates would remain persistently high.

Also as yields increase there is a tipping point that would affect the stock market. Capitol would get siphoned off to cut business investment and then stock valuations would get hurt. A vicious cycle begins.

Debt equals an economic slowdown. The deficit leads to higher interest rates and also points to a slowdown. Debt will be the shoe that drops to crush people and businesses.

Gold is over $3.4K at the close, and oil is over $63.XX. One headline for the reason was the Ukraine attack that is being called Russia’s Pearl Harbor. Basically geo-political instability is being blamed for both oil and gold going up, despite OPEC+ increasing supply.

What do you believe?

Separately the Yo Eddy is shaping up. I need to finish with the derailleur cable. It will be an interesting ride. Also I could utilize Schwable 2.35 Rocket Rons to lighten the bike, but the Maxxis Minions are a more aggressive tire with a slightly chubbier front tire.

Happy-happy. After I bed in the brakes (3 rides) I’ll show AJ the Yo Eddy.

Cal
 
The tally for 2025 for my Cancer treatment that includes April now exceeds a quarter of a million dollars.

United Health Care stock dropped because of a surge in costs. I think much of the “surprise” surge in cost was due to illness that got a toehold due to not keeping up with the maintenance, screening, and preventative care due to the Pandemic and Covid.

I don’t blame Covid or the pandemic for my Cancer. It came as a surprise, but unlike others we managed to get through the waiting and backlog to get up to date and on top of our medical care. Catching up was like a job and certainly was disruptive, and it is easy to see how many Americans did not have the time to do a catch-up.

I restarted my inhibitor today, and I’m back into my routine.

The Yo Eddy weighs in at 23.75 pounds. The handling is quick and agile, but different than an IBIS it also is less stiff. The tracking is like on a rail. This bike was made for single track. I can see why it is so revered and favored. Lucky me: I own a nice one.

The cross gear is rather severe on a 1x11, and to counter chain drop I use a Wolf Tooth chain ring that has a barbed like tooth profile to help stop chain drop. Having a rear derailleur that has a clutch is also a help.

I did a few climbs up Reynold’s Hills. On the downhill I quickly spun out the 75 inch gear, but it was a good test of sweeping through all the gear slow to high, and high to low. The high speed also likely sped up the bedding of the brakes. The brakes are wonderful.

I’m kinda in love with this bike, don’t tell “Maggie.”

This bike is still mucho retro, but the updates to the drivetrain and brakes are very high end, and seems to be just the right amount of bling. It is a strikingly pretty bike that has agile handling that is mighty great. It seems this bike was truely designed to work well with a Rock Shox SID.

I might stop by AJ’s shop in Croton today.

Cal
 
I wonder if Phil is doing well in polishing off the rust. Not easy to keep the momentum going because of life stresses and even the weather.

I jumped on the steel IBIS today and went for a 2 1/2 hour ride. The goal here was to polish off some rust and have some blood flow.

The villages of Montrose and Buchanan are two small communities that are tucked away that no one knows about. The roads are devoid of cars. Pretty much I can ride with little worry of getting pancaked.

On the steel IBIS I have a 63 inch, a 48 inch and a 33 inch gear. I’m thankful for the 48 inch gear to use on the hills. This area along the Hudson River has lots of rolling hills. Not sure I need the 33 inch gear, and if I get rid of it, then the friction shifter becomes a lot more like an indexed shifter.

So “less is more.” The steel IBIS ends up being a great bike for what I need.

Cal
 
As the big three stock indexes erased the ire 2025 losses do think the economy is doing as well as earlier?

What I see is exuberance. Lots of indications of a slowdown, but here we are back at the peak of the Trump-Bump.

Where is all this optimism coming from?

Cal
 
I figured out that I could shed 3/4’ers of a pound off the Yo Eddy by just changing out the tires from the Maxxis Minions to Schwable Rocket Rons that I have “on-hand.”

Three quarters of a pound of rotating mass is huge. The Yo Eddy would weigh in at 23 pounds with 2.35 wide Rocket Rons.

Right now though the Yo Eddy looks mighty aggressive because of the tires though.

Hmmm…

Cal
 
I work Sunday through Thursday and all this week I will be riding to and from work. 23 miles a day.
Sunday morning I rode 6 more miles than usual because of utter heartbreak. I got down to all the way to the art museum along the Schuylkill path and stopped my bike. My rear tire was low so I wanted to pump it up. I was feeling some rubbing and wandering in the turns, so I thought I had a leak and was about to roll a tire. I only wish.
1000019748.jpg
The forward tab of the drive side dropout cracked clean at the chainstay. I had made it 3 miles from home so I soft pedaled back, grabbed the Rotrax fixed gear, then tortured myself to get up the wissahickon to work. I'm so glad I found it before the ride home because there are fast descents with quick turns and I could have crashed bad. Now I need to find a pair of Simplex vertical constructeur/randonneur dropouts, then have the frame repaired. No big deal, I'm not stressing it. I've been riding for 43 years, some of it very intense, and I've never broken a frame, so I count myself lucky.
I'm back riding the Miyata touring bike and I feel great today. Tomorrow I may ride the Rotrax again since alternating between keeping a high cadence on a multi geared freewheel bike, then moving to a fixed gear pushing 73 inches and being forced to mash up a 2 mile hill, is good for strength training.
I'm on the edge of building up a near identical training bike to compliment my Concorde racing bike. I just need to see if I have the right spokes in my stash. I used to get bulk deals by purchasing from Starbike in Germany, but with the tariff situation, I'm going to be looking for NOS all over the country. Existing stock in DT Swiss spokes won't be taxed , so I'll save a bit. Cal, I have a bunch of wheel builds I need to complete, so if AJ wants to sell a ton of spokes, I'm definitely game.
Phil
 
Phil,

I’ll try and stop by AJ’s Thursday. Tomorrow, Wednesday, we have the grandson. I surely will ask about his stock of spokes.

I put on a set of 26x2.35 Rocket Rons on the Yo Eddy after dinner. It now weighs 22 pounds even.

The Schwable tires say 2.35, but look mucho thinner and not as wide as the Maxxis 2.35.

Anyways the Yo Eddy is mucho light in weight, especially considering it has a Rock Shox SID for a fork. It will be interesting to do a test ride with the tire change. Should accelerate faster with less rotating mass.

The look is less aggressive though, looks more like a cross country racer. The Maxxis Minions made the Yo Eddy more of a technical bike. Two very different looks.

Glad you did not crash or get hurt.

Cal
 
Thinking of eliminating the 33 gear inch. Pretty close to a trials gear of 30 inches. The friction shifter would utilize the high and low limit/stops on the chainring derailleur as “indexing.”

There also is the benefit of a shorter chain, and crisper more violent shifts.

Today I did some standing to stay on top of the gear. This of course uses more of your body and is more strenuous. Not a bad thing to do if perhaps you only have two gears.

Today’s ride made me question the utility of a 33 gear inch.

Cal
 
On a beach in Peekskill along the Hudson River I saw 3 and then 4 Turkey Vultures sunning themselves and spreading their wings as if to dry them.

Also came upon a 6-7 foot long black Rat Snake.

“Maggie” is not pleased seeing the ground hog.

There are mucho rabbits and baby bunnies. Multiple litters I suspect. This year the rabbits often feed on the grass and clover on our side and front yards.

Yesterday I saw a pair of doe’s (deer) when I climbed Reynold’s Hills on my bike.

Cal
 
Groundhogs are awesome creatures. If you have a white mulberry, they like the leaves and fruit more than any produce we grow. The groundhogs have become the unofficial mascot of the Woodlands Cemetery where Bethanne and I are volunteer gardeners.
Phil
 
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