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BTW the pretense here is lower interest rates, but what if the unintended consequence here of just the opposite: higher interest rates to account for higher risk.

Someone I will not mentioned says that going bankrupt was a good move and was smart. This person bankrupted a casino in Atlantic City. This person is also known to not pay his bills and to not pay his contractors.

See what happens if the FED looses independence?

Could be a breaking point.

It’s 11:30 AM and finally my bladder is somewhat normalized. Any accumulation of urine leads to an over response to feeling like I have a full bladder. There has been nearly two months of conditioning here, and somehow like AI my brain is jumping the shark. Therefore frequent urination whether I truly need to go or not.

I guess I am compelled today to mention the big gamble here to the economy just to add some stimulus to further an inflationary policy. The FED independence here is the risk and tipping point here that could trigger a rude awakening.

Wall Street is acting or ignoring this presidential maneuver as if just another TA-CO trade. A legal battle lays ahead, or at least evidence that is proof of mal-doing. Accusations are not enough.

In less words, Wall Street is thinking all this is BS that can be ignored.

Also looks like the BS supports a rate cut or rate cuts. Wall Street likes that…

Cal
 
I just placed a rather large Callaham guitar parts order. Pretty much boutique parts that are high end.

The thing is that prices on Fender brand guitars are with bloated pricing. At this point they sell lower levels of quality to make availability and price point.

Earlier in the past few years I have built/assembled many guitars using boutique parts that I would argue are kinda personal custom guitars that exceed Fender quality. Remember I worked in a guitar shop and also built guitars. I know how to make a guitar play like a Fender Custom Shop model.

We are at a point now where prices on everything is expensive. Even a set of guitar strings are $10.00.

Anyways, riffing off what I wrote above I’m glad I spent the money because now things are getting mighty costly. Fender prices are “bloated,” used equipment is also bloated, and it even has trickled down to suppliers for building parts-casters.

Today after the “bell” Novidia will report it’s earnings. Looks like the markets believe that AI is doing well. Let’s see…

If earnings disappoint, “Look out below…”

So imagine American cars getting exported due to a “Cheap” dollar. Do you think an American car as a status symbol or a good value like other cars? Can you see Italians buying a Ford F-150 or a full sized SUV? How cheap does an American car have to get to overcome “ill-will?”

I think China would rather buy soy beans from Brazil rather than the U.S. I think the American farmer will take a big hit and get thrown under the bus.

What do we sell that is really-really the best?

Weapons, but Canada just canceled a F-35 fighter jet order. Switzerland might also follow suit. Europe and NATO are coming up with a plan “B” because the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally.


Cal
 
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Today is my last radiation treatment.

Yesterday was like a military mission because I had to use skill and tactics to get through the day. The mission was to drive to Danbury Conn. right after my second to last treatment to pick up “Maggie” and Dave.

They UBER’ed to get there was their plan, but the UBER fell through and they took a cab that cost $60.00.

The difficulty was right after radiation therapy I am over-hydrated and generally have to pee 5 times every 5 minutes. My strategy was to use public restrooms along the way. The key was intelligence. I happen to know many bathrooms in northern Westchester and Putnam counties. The first was a bagel shop on Route 202 not far from the hospital, than a coffee shop on Route 6 called BoBo’s.

I started my over-hydration early, and at the hospital at 9:00 AM or Oh-9-hundred I already was over 300 ml on the ultrasonic scan. Pretty much I was allowed to do a pre-mature release to ensure I could make it through the treatment, so in effect this was pee number one even though it was not a full emptying.

Then add in the other two pit-stops, somehow I made it to Danbury. Kinda proud that I accomplished my mission.

Anyways it was a great display of what a highly trained bladder can do, pretty much a bit crazy and edgy. Kinda had to be brave and hope for the best…

The used books (The Chinese Cookbook, 1972) are packed in gift bags along with bags of Red Mill wheat-germ. Last night we bought a cookie plater for the rest of the staff.

The grandson is not so brave, he does not like going to pre-school.

Off to get ready…

Cal
 
My last radiation treatment is done. My thoughtful gift of 3 The Chinese Cookbook for these three foodies came off as mucho thoughtful. Then there were the bags of wheat germ for breading eggplant and chicken cutlets for frying. Pretty much one of my cooking secrets, don’t tell anyone.

“Maggie” is becoming a different woman. Pretty much emulating me as far as being a lazy-slacker and having a simple modest life. There is major talk of a greenhouse and growing our own food. It is looking that we too will get into Chinese cooking to eat only unprocessed foods.

Breaks our hearts but the grandson does not like pre-school. He has difficulties being separate from his family. While he has the personality to be a front-man in a rock band, and he also has the good looks, away from his family he is shy. Pretty much he is scared when dropped off at pre-school. He is now 3 years old.

While he is clearly gifted, he also has delayed speech, and has speech therapy. One of the problems is he has a tongue-tie that inhibited his development. Pretty much outside his family he is not able to communicate, so I imagine he feels alone and isolated.

Anyways I know that feeling.

Drinking my first coffee, and going forward my life will be different now that radiation therapy is gone from my life. I already have an appointment for the follow through.

Because of conditioning I wake up every hour and a half to pee, but I don’t have a full bladder. Then I wake by myself at 5:00 AM to take my Inhibitor. I also have to empty my bladder whenever I have anything in it. Pretty much all conditioning via repetition, and my hope is that things normalize.

My worry is that these changes could be permanent. The sense of urgency when I don’t have to really empty myself is now wired in my brain that I am over-hydrated.

Cal
 
My last radiation treatment is done. My thoughtful gift of 3 The Chinese Cookbook for these three foodies came off as mucho thoughtful. Then there were the bags of wheat germ for breading eggplant and chicken cutlets for frying. Pretty much one of my cooking secrets, don’t tell anyone.

Cal

Can I be first to say CONGRATULATIONS, you have reached an important milestone!!

Chinese cooking is one of the (many) non-secret secrets of longevity in life. While so much of the rest of Asia has fallen into the fast food-junk food trap, many Chinese everywhere continue to cook with fresh ingredients, and add the little extras to make it not only palatable but super-healthy.

I've cooked this way since the 970s, and my SO and I at home since 1997. I also take ginseng 2x weekly and kratom (in very low dosage) 2x. My half-yearly med app and blood tests show everything is okay, in fact most of the problems that plague oldies in my age-range (late 70s) have somehow bypassed me.

So yep, good for you, Cal, and good for me!!

(I did notice I'm in a line-up of likes on Cal's last post...)
 
Yesterday another drive to Danbury. Dave had his stitches removed, can drive, and is cleared for work for the 15th. So a big step in his recovery. As a teacher he stands on his feet for a work day, so he still has to build up some stamina and has physical therapy.

Danbury is a larger city than Peekskill, but it is also like Peekskill in that it is diverse. In Peekskill it is a coin toss if mostly white or mostly Hispanic, but I think Hispanic is the likely majority because of illegals. Danbury I would say is mostly white. In both cities you see mucho two-family houses. The houses in Peekskill though are older.

So a second good day moving forward. “Maggie’s” ill healing cryo burn off is not Cancer we also learned from the biopsy results.

We fixed the grandson’s tractor-bike, which was his birthday present. This too involved healing. Friday morning was a hysterical episode.

Part of the problem is the early strong bonding since we took care of him for the first year and a half of his life to protect him from Covid and other respiratory diseases. What I mistakenly called pre-school is actually nursery school, and he finds getting moved into nursery school rude.

Today between 9 to 1:00 PM will be aInhibitor delivery. I did the math and figured out that a month’s dose costs $2.5K. Ouch… Mucho glad that I get financial aid to cover my out of pocket. My worries is that next year I hope the financial aid continues…

So now gold is making new Intra-day highs, is now over $3.5K, and my junior gold miner is also spiking in tandem. As we loose purchasing power (around 10-11% when compared to a basket of currencies) my situation is somewhat hedged by physical gold and my Junior gold miner.

It was wise to hedge myself with gold to ensure inflation does not erode my wealth. Basically gold and real estate is a good hedge and an insurance policy to protect your portfolio.

Carmel in Putnam County is a bit hill-billy. There is a great deli on Route 52 that is a kinda rough and tumble truck stop for all the blue collar workers. Maggie reports a conversation that started there because one dude wore a Murtle Beach T-shirt. It asked if the guy owned any real estate in South Carolina…

It seemed that the guy without the T-shirt owned an older home in costal South Carolina that was bigger and better value than a new home, but has trouble trying to sell the home because all the developers are undercutting him because the newly built homes are financed by the developers. Sound like a bit of unregulated lending that is private, or an American form of “Shadow-Banking.”

The lowland costal areas of the Carolina’s, basically swamp, went undeveloped for a reason, but now currently is/was the fastest developing area in the country. Three of Maggie’s brothers bought homes there, and two of one brother’s sons moved their families there.

One brother lost a brand new car that was “totaled” because of flooding. Then there is a lack of medical infrastructure like doctors and hospitals. For me relocating there could be a death sentence…

So these home builders are offering their own financing. Pretty much this is no different that what happended in China that led to a real estate bust. But then again there is a tale of two markets, here in The North East land and development are more restricted, and housing prices are still inflating.

The abandoned house on my dead-end had an open house two weeks ago. Currently it is under contract. The repairs like a new roof, new stoop, and a gutting were made/necessary for a CO. Pretty much a flipper a la Home Cheapo, and the asking price was $499K. Not a good deal, but two weeks after an open house it is under contract.

My thinking the price is less than $500K and the price got negotiated downwards. We were sitting out under our pergola eating brunch and saw a family that we would say are the likely buyers. A young couple with perhaps parents, where I projected that the father was likely involved with construction. All the heavy lifting had been performed, but in an el cheapo manner.

The exterior was painted white over white, but they did not power wash the home so the dirt is still visible. This house is likely the ugly duckling on our street of 13 houses, but for a young couple the big draw would be the Henrick Hudson School District which is one of the top 100 in New York State because of Indian Point the nuclear power supply.

This home has some more dead trees that need to be removed, Knotweed, and poison ivy.

One of the reasons why we got the Baby-Victorian so cheap is that this 1951 built house was an eyesore and was so run down. It is kinda crazy how much our home appreciated, and I’m pretty confident that our house is definitely the cutest on the block, and it also was the first built in 1912 as this neighborhood was developed. Maggie believes it was a model home for the developer.

Up in Putnam County it is more rural and hill-billy. There lacks infrastructure like public water, sewers, and serious hospitals. For major medical care the kids have to drive to Danbury, Conn.

Maggie from the kids got out of her head from downsizing, and is reacquainted with pure love of our home. She see’s it as I do as a rare and lucky find. A new awakening for her…

Cal
 
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Tuesday expected delivery of my Callahan guitar parts order.

Crisp fall weather in the Hudson Valley for the three day weekend. I’m already seeing yellow and brown falling leaves and leaf litter.

Kinda excited about micro farming and getting a greenhouse for our property. Moving forward. A cute house in a city with a second 40x100 back backyard that borders public land on the southern edge. Perfect southern exposure, and a good amount of privacy because of a corner lot and a dead-end in a neighborhood that is a series of mazes and dead-ends.

Two miles away is a downtown and a serious/real hospital. Elevation of 70-75 feet depending on the tide, 40 miles north of NYC. We hear the diesel trains of Metro North Hudson line commuter railroad. A kinda strategic location not far from West Point. Across the Hudson River is mountains.

The beauty is majestic: the Hudson Valley is one gigantic Fjord created by a mammoth glacier. To big State Parks just across the river, but too close to NYC to be alone in a massive wilderness in the summer. IMHO basically too many tourists for locals like us to enjoy. We get in out Audi and drive to the Catskills.

We have our lives back now that radiation therapy is done.

Cal
 
With gold all is not golden. Leveraged funds are part of the price gains, and with leverage the fall in price can be steep because leverage is a multiplier for gains, but also a multiplier for losses.

Holding onto physical gold is one thing, but holding onto a miner is another thing.

Gold miners have increased more than gold’s 29%-30%, and leveraged funds have gained 55%. Pretty much the gains are due to expected/anticipated inflation.

So what I’m writing here is gold has a lot of risk, both physical holdings and speculating on miners.

One point though is many financial planners recommend holding 5% of any portfolio in gold as an insurance policy. Some others recommend 10% because they see the deficit and inflation as the future.

Jared Dillions point of a 20% mix of gold and gold miners could be viewed as a conservative to hedge against losses. His 20-20-20-20-20-20 portfolio is designed to avoid downturns and is tuned for moderate steady gains via simple rebalancing. @0% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash (laddered CD’s), 20% real estate, and lastly 20% gold.

Rebalancing locks in profits and dampens volatility. Simple as set and forget. Perhaps rebalance 4 times a year, or whenever one asset class has big gains. Steady gains with no big drawdowns is one way to get rich.

Pretty much a portfolio for modest gains that avoids drawdowns.

Also know Jared also likes “moonshot” speculations. Point is the 5x 20% portfolio is a great idea to have as “ballast.”

Don’t put all your ammo in one basket, but it makes sense to have a good amount in the 5x 20% depending on your financial risk and age.

Cal
 
My last radiation treatment is done. My thoughtful gift of 3 The Chinese Cookbook for these three foodies came off as mucho thoughtful. Then there were the bags of wheat germ for breading eggplant and chicken cutlets for frying. Pretty much one of my cooking secrets, don’t tell anyone.

“Maggie” is becoming a different woman. Pretty much emulating me as far as being a lazy-slacker and having a simple modest life. There is major talk of a greenhouse and growing our own food. It is looking that we too will get into Chinese cooking to eat only unprocessed foods.

Breaks our hearts but the grandson does not like pre-school. He has difficulties being separate from his family. While he has the personality to be a front-man in a rock band, and he also has the good looks, away from his family he is shy. Pretty much he is scared when dropped off at pre-school. He is now 3 years old.

While he is clearly gifted, he also has delayed speech, and has speech therapy. One of the problems is he has a tongue-tie that inhibited his development. Pretty much outside his family he is not able to communicate, so I imagine he feels alone and isolated.

Anyways I know that feeling.

Drinking my first coffee, and going forward my life will be different now that radiation therapy is gone from my life. I already have an appointment for the follow through.

Because of conditioning I wake up every hour and a half to pee, but I don’t have a full bladder. Then I wake by myself at 5:00 AM to take my Inhibitor. I also have to empty my bladder whenever I have anything in it. Pretty much all conditioning via repetition, and my hope is that things normalize.

My worry is that these changes could be permanent. The sense of urgency when I don’t have to really empty myself is now wired in my brain that I am over-hydrated.

Cal
So good to hear your radiation treatments are behind you! You got through them like a champ! Hope you continue to make progress with your other treatments!
 
I have a more normal life now.

Yesterday, “Maggie” ordered a high carbon steel wok. It should be delivered Tuesday. Unlike an All Clad wok made of stainless steel, the high carbon steel is like a cast iron frying pan in that it gets “seasoned.”

Grilled meat with grilled corn and our garden tomatoes was for an early dinner, then an after dinner a walk last night. We think this will be our routine.

Been weighing 155-157 pounds. My arms and chest are less muscular: the fem-out… Pretty much a trade off of muscle for some belly fat.

Had my $2.5K Inhibitor delivered. I have to be careful and consult with my oncologist about getting a flu shot or a Covid vaccine to avoid ant dangerous or even deadly drug interaction. Fact is I have a compromised immune system, so this winter in crowds I will wear a mask, and chronic hand washing is required. Any disease or illness would be more profound.

Now I can focus on diet and fitness. The days are mine again…

Tuesday I give blood to monitor my response to hormone treatment. A month from now I will get my third “chemical castration” injection. The injections last 3 months and have a gel time release. Pretty much 6 months of “C-C” would have elapsed.

The Inhibitor and steroid came about 2 months later than the start of the “C-C,” so only 4 months of that in about a month.

Seems like I don’t have hot-flashes anymore, but I am still hyper sensitive to any cold. In a 72 degree room I can get a chill, and in any air conditioned space I kinda need a fall jacket. In my car I need to wear a jacket.

I carry a bit of fat around my waist. Nothing that is more than 5 pounds. I have lost most of my body hair, save my pubic hair and a some very scant underarm hair. Maggie remarks that my skin has a “glow” that is very youthful and healthy looking. The best thing is the chronic fatigue seems to be less.

My oncologist says around six months the side effects kinda subside and normalize. Like any Cancer treatment the side effects are kinda profound and have ill effects, but mine are not so bad. The point is I have at least another 18-20 months of hormone therapy to get through.

The 5 year clock I was told by my radiation oncologist actually starts when my hormone treatment ends. Then it takes a year to a year and a half for my body to normalize after the end of the hormone treatment. Factor in another 12-18 months, then there is a 30% chance that I might not ever produce testosterone ever again. Basically the fem-out will be permanent.

Since Prostate Cancer needs testosterone to grow, Maggie hopes the fem-out is permanent, but I want my strength back and that threatening and intimidating lean bulk that suggests I’m a fighter and advertises don’t mess with me because I can easily take you out.

I would say my facial features are softer. I kinda use to look more like a criminal, but now I look like a pretty boy. My cheeks are flatter and have a bit of a bitchy pout. More pronounce are my cheeks than my chin or jawline.

Overall and thankfully the side effects have not been too bad. I wonder if I’m still anemic? Seems likely not because I have more energy. I guess I’ll find out when I visit my old geezer hematologist about my Cold Agglutinin Disease (CAD) that is a low level B-cell Lymphoma.

I live with two Cancers…

Cal
 
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I could post a bunch of photos here or just link the thread again here. I'll give you a couple teasers with some questions in the form of a survey, for those of you who won't read the full BF thread.
The would-be-BSA is done as far as cleaning goes.
1000021772.jpg
I'm hoping to find a new chain for less than half a car payment. Also going to build a set of rider wheels using clincher tyres. The original tyres were probably latex, pencil eraser red. I pried one of these off the front rim. The back rim still has a tyre which holds air but is definitely not original. The saddle you see in the photo is not the one which came delivered with the bicycle (which may not have been original anyway.)
As for tyres to ride, I'm thinking red as the originals probably were, or yellow. I can get Gravel King slicks with yellow tread and gum sidewall, which approximates what a yellow tyre would have looked like (maybe a little more faded due to the latex used.) the red that the GK tyre uses is almost perfect but not all the way down the sidewall. The other option would be to go with a red Sunlite CST HP tyre, like so many 27 x 1 1/4" wheeled bikes from the 70s and 80s currently worn. After that, I'll be cloth taping the bars.
WHAT COLOR? I ask of you. The tape will get shellac for improved grip and durability.
Phil
 
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Phil, a question: what is the hole at the end of the handlebar for?

Another is are those 40 spoke wheels?

27x1 1/4 tires will be interesting.

Does not get more cool or retro than that bike. Them lugs, and 1964 vintage is boss.

White cork for contrast.

Cal
 
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Visited a small town called Cornwall above West Point, then went to Cold Spring a popular town for NYC day trippers. The walking made us tired. You can see the day trippers as tourists. There was a big crowd of them invading Main Street, but I asked “Maggie” if we look like locals or tourists? The answer is we look like locals.

Some people want Peekskill to be like Cold Spring, but I don’t. Too many tourists…

Cornwall is a sleepy town that is kinda too quiet.

Anyways had to get out of the house.

Restrung and set up my single Cabronita with 11’s. These lighter gauge strings, moving from 12’s, opened up this guitar. It plays well and now is rather lively.

I ordered more sets of 11’s to convert some guitars I have set up with 12’s tuned down a half step.

Live and learn. The 11’s have a better feel, are more lively, and just make things feel right. More and more quintals are getting converted to 11’s.

I play pick and fingers, so the lighter gauge facilitates my style better. For straight flat picking 12’s are great, but it seems I’m evolving in a big way. Lighter gauge offers more response and sensitivity. It seems that the heavy strings advanced my technic also, but now that has played out.

Anyways, some moving forward.

Cal
 
Cal,
Not sure about the hole in the handlebar, I've wondered myself. The wheels are 36 hole. I have 40 spoke rear wheels on my British bikes, as was standard from the very early 20th century until the demise of Raleigh, Nottingham. The wood rims take normal size sew ups, which are the same size as 700c clinchers. 27 x 1 1/4 are 8mm wider diameter than 700c. The CST red tires I mentioned aren't 27 x 1 1/4, they are just the most common brand of tire for that size.
No cork wrap here, got to be either cotton wrap or rubber grips. I'm going to do this one up in cotton.
The vintage of this bike is between 1909 and 1930.
Phil
 
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Gold futures made a big jump. The reason given is the FED independence and along with that inflation.

The problem I see is that loosing FED independence will make selling bonds more costly (higher interest rates), and we already have huge interest payments. At a certain point austerity has to kick in or bankruptcy happens.

Then any dollar asset is worth less and could be worthless. Note use of two words followed by one word. Believe it or not this is what is happening.

How high will gold go before the general population takes notice that debt and our deficit are a problem. For households that have mortgages locked in below 3% inflation can help reduce the burden of debt if salaries and income inflate, but the economy and demand is slowing.

Housing construction and new home buying is down. Existing housing is staying on the market longer or is being removed from the market because they are not selling.

The full effect of tariffs have not been felt yet, wait till later this year into the first two quarters of 2026.

Then the farmers are underwater and are in serious trouble. Pretty much they need to be bailed out. Then farmers have a serious labor problem.

BTW the Big Bankrupt Bill was costly and the money has to come from somewhere. Casino economics fraught with risk is policy. Making America Great means making America alone.

I was surprised that Trump didn’t tariff gold, but now I see that he really could not corner the pricing of gold and it really is still free-market. Next benchmark for gold is $4K and we are on that path, then $5K. Right now the futures are in the $354X.XX range.

I’ll ask again, “Do you feel poorer yet,” as your purchasing power continues to get eroded. It only too 8 months to loose 10%-11% of the dollar’s value, and tariffs have not fully filtered into the economy yet.

If I cite guitar strings going from $7.00 a set to now $10.00 a set that is 30% inflation. BTW guitar strings are made domestically here in the U.S. I project a 25%-30% increase.

Reports say that there is still a stockpiling going on and that growth although is continuing will likely soon end. Expect higher prices.

Hope you bought and stockpiled because the future is expensive. Anyone who has to roll-over debt will get buried, and this includes our government. The Big Bankrupt Bill was costly and made our deficit worse.

I imagine the workers in the guitar string factories as not being white Americans.

Cal
 
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As AI starts to deplete the grid, did you know it takes 5-7 years to build a nuclear power plant? Who pays for this infrastructure?

I kinda think this is like a subsidy because the money gets funneled from consumers and then business profits.

Really not so different that the Federal subsidy of a $7.5K to $8K payout to buy a Tesla. Did Musk need to be subsidized by the government?

Also EV’s tax the grid. Rate payers in turn get taxed by higher electric rates.

How many insults and on how many levels am I paying for others to profit?

Do you understand the insults?

Do you see the robbery happening?

Consider this concentration of wealth going on as the second era of robber barons.

Cal
 
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