New York September NYC Meet-Up/Photoville

robert blu said:
Wow, to edit 2 million shots must be an hard work...even in 8 years

robert
Click to expand...

Robert,

Imagine wearing out several cameras in those 8 years. Pete is an impressive pro and he inspired me.

It was also interesting to get the smut. The stories behind the iconic images made for great insights. Also I learned about his editing process. Always best to just take the shot to capture the moment.

Cal
 
WOW. $8K for a M10P.

People are complaining about the high price. LOL.

Did I not pay $8K for my Monochrom six years ago? This price is not new to me. LOL.

Anyways the best $8K I ever spent. I still love this camera, even though it is so basic and primitive. Still takes great pictures. Only had to wait 12 weeks for the sensor replacement and free overhaul.

The Monochrom is as close to a film camera as it gets, really basic. I don't need or want video capabilities, just a simple basic camera.

Cal
 
Photoville Smut:

Alexia Foundation will be having Portfolio Reviews on Sunday September 23rd between 2-4 PM.

PM me with your e-mail and I'll forward you the sign up. Spaces are limited.

Cal
 
September for me is NYC Fashion Month.

Yesterday Housing Works picked up 6 bags of clothes that are a donation to sponsor this Celeb Open Closet Benefit.

I also donated mucho bags of woman's clothes to the Children's Aid Society.

I'm booked (on the list) for the September 23rd Portfolio Review.

I also have a dental cleaning on a Saturday out on Long Island. I have to visit my friend Cris and pick up a guitar I dropped off to get some work performed.

So add in Photoville and the entire month will be very busy/crazy.

The nice thing about my "Workbook" is that I can easily cull it down and edit easily and downsize the length of the screwposts.

Cal
 
**Gear Alert**

I pickup another camera today a Nikon D2X looks in good shape just need a lens
or two, but the main reason I purchased a Nikon DSLR they have one of the best
flash system, even better than the Canon which I used this past spring for a few jobs
and was a little disappointed.
 
This Thursday night is an orientation meeting for Photoville volenteers.

Fashion month has begun and the frenzy has begun with another start of the semester academic year. "Maggie" has got an invite by a luxury designer to attend their show in Paris which is later this month. Her agent says this means next year this invite to participate and be part of Paris Fashion Week will be full tilt. Understand that this Paris luxury brand is paying for the plane and the accommodations. Next year there will be a bunch of Paris luxury invites booked.

Pretty much at this level next year Maggie has to quit her day-job as a full time college professor. Meanwhile she will have replacement income and not have to touch her nest egg or collect her Social Security.

This Technical Writer I once worked with named Dave would say, "I come to work to rest." Dave was a funny guy who played semi-pro football and was the quarterback of his team, but Dave was an old guy when I knew him, and he was a very old guy to have very young kids. Anyways Dave had an interesting work ethic and a highly busy life outside of work.

So here I am a lazy slacker following in Dave's footsteps. I'm not particularly busy at work, although yesterday we had to troubleshoot a liquid Helium compressor. We lost vacuum because the compressor shut down over the holiday weekend. Know that we use cryopumps that have "cold heads" that are radiators that freeze "matter" to attain a vacuum higher than outer space.

I walk 2 1/2 miles to work for exercise and to save the $2.75 Metrocard fare. It takes me an extra 5 minutes over the bus or subway, but know this is compounded by my constant cronic lateness. I'm suppose to be at work at 8:00, but pretty much I'm generally ten, fifteen or sometimes 20 minutes late, so when I arrive at 8:10 AM I'm actually arriving early. LOL.

"Working-hard; or hardly working," Dave would say. LOL. So at work I'm not particularly busy doing work. I do have to deal with fools and their foolish thinking and a certain amount of chaos and BS, but never before has someone been paid so much to do so little.

So basically I come to work to relax and rest. I came up with this 6 minute workout that involves "High Intensity Training" or HIT. I use this pipe in a gas utility closet to do sets of chin-ups throughout the day, and I do sets of push-ups. On a good day I get 5 sets in, and on others when I'm lazy only 3.

Yesterday I got a financial newsletter that was particularly interesting because it utilized physics and complex theories involving chaos to explain where we are in financial history.

This involved a research program at BNL, (Brookhaven National Labs), a National Lab that I once worked at on the eastern end of Long Island. A key example was this computer model of random placement of grains of sand and the resulting random creation of "Islands of Stability" before avalances occurred.

The key understanding and lesson learned from this simple experiment is that the chaos created was unpredictable, and that counterintuitively "stability causes instability over time."

So basically when applied to the financial markets since 2007-2008 when seemingly random events cascaded into a collapse we have enjoyed a very long period of stability. The events that lead to the 2007-2008 collapse were preceeded by an accumulation of a bunch of "Islands of Stability" before the cascading began that triggered a major historical collapse.

So here we are after a very long extended time of stability, and the violence approaching, but the random trigger that will cause an event cannot be predicted, it will just happen.

Another point being made is that we no longer have "Market Cycles;" we now have "Credit Cycles" that have extended a multitude of "Islands of Stability." These credit cycles/bubbles are man made and are the main reason why presently there are so many "Islands of Stability" that are all man made. I expect this next cycle to be worse than 2007-2008 BTW.

So what to do? One thing I learned from Maggie's blog and the housing crisis is not to do what everyone else is doing. So I am not fully invested in the stock market, and I'm sitting on cash waiting for a shoe to drop. "Look out below," I say. I'm keeping a good portion of my ammo dry and I'm saving it for later.

The last time I did this was 2007-2008. I sold all my oil stocks when oil first hit $135.00 a barrel, and I closed my margin account. When the credit crisis hit, and liquidity froze up, I was flush-sitting on cash, and that is when I bought my first Leica, a used Wetzlar M6.

Pretty much everyone was selling their treasures for no money, and I had a pile of cash. Pretty much just another bubble-boom and then bust that is yet another "credit cycle."

So I still own this Wetzlar M6 and a bunch of other cameras worth keeping that I wisely accumulated over the past decade that I intend to keep shooting the rest of my life. My Ti-Ibis was made in 1994 and next year will be 25 years old and then an antique. All my other bikes are older and are still worth keeping. I have my guitar, bass and amplifier collection.

Pretty much I have enough accumulated wealth already so this credit cycle is about future financial security.

Interesting to note how "instability can also lead to stability" can also be true.

So this physical fitness is paying dividends. One thing I learned is that due to my increased physical fitness is that I am more mentally alert. Some studies support that the ancient Greeks had it right: mind and body. Some research suggests that one of the best things to prevent dementia and Old-Timer's Disease is not mental exercising, but physical exercise.

Blood flow and the prevention of plaque seem to be the issue.

Cal
 
Range-rover said:
John,
You got it this week, wow something going on, I even called and
it was no go. Could you send me the link.

Thanks
Click to expand...

Bob,
Please send me your email address via PM. I will be very happy to forward the email I received from PhotoPlusExpo, on Sept. 7th, regarding free registration.

-John
 
Calzone said:
Yesterday I got a financial newsletter that was particularly interesting because it utilized physics and complex theories involving chaos to explain where we are in financial history.

This involved a research program at BNL, (Brookhaven National Labs), a National Lab that I once worked at on the eastern end of Long Island. A key example was this computer model of random placement of grains of sand and the resulting random creation of "Islands of Stability" before avalances occurred.

The key understanding and lesson learned from this simple experiment is that the chaos created was unpredictable, and that counterintuitively "stability causes instability over time."

So basically when applied to the financial markets since 2007-2008 when seemingly random events cascaded into a collapse we have enjoyed a very long period of stability. The events that lead to the 2007-2008 collapse were preceeded by an accumulation of a bunch of "Islands of Stability" before the cascading began that triggered a major historical collapse.

So here we are after a very long extended time of stability, and the violence approaching, but the random trigger that will cause an event cannot be predicted, it will just happen.

Another point being made is that we no longer have "Market Cycles;" we now have "Credit Cycles" that have extended a multitude of "Islands of Stability." These credit cycles/bubbles are man made and are the main reason why presently there are so many "Islands of Stability" that are all man made. I expect this next cycle to be worse than 2007-2008 BTW.

So what to do? One thing I learned from Maggie's blog and the housing crisis is not to do what everyone else is doing. So I am not fully invested in the stock market, and I'm sitting on cash waiting for a shoe to drop. "Look out below," I say. I'm keeping a good portion of my ammo dry and I'm saving it for later.

The last time I did this was 2007-2008. I sold all my oil stocks when oil first hit $135.00 a barrel, and I closed my margin account. When the credit crisis hit, and liquidity froze up, I was flush-sitting on cash, and that is when I bought my first Leica, a used Wetzlar M6.

Pretty much everyone was selling their treasures for no money, and I had a pile of cash. Pretty much just another bubble-boom and then bust that is yet another "credit cycle."

Pretty much I have enough accumulated wealth already so this credit cycle is about future financial security.

Interesting to note how "instability can also lead to stability" can also be true.


Cal
Click to expand...

That is interesting! Wish I had a copy of that newsletter to read, although often times newsletters just have nothing interesting.

I have a bad feeling indeed. Hope not to be caught pants down as us younger generations don't have a nice island to plant feet on... I often think about passive income, nice assets and would wish for an apartment in the center of town, even if to rent and make cash!

Real estate wise, Spain went back to a bubble like state and so the more things change the more of the same. Moved up to Scandinavia and read that housing appreciated 14% in a year. Jees.

Although shortly, having a poor man's mindset and working at a bank makes money thinking enjoyable. Even if we were teens in 2007, most people my generation don't have that vision of how things were. Blame my dad for pointing things before, during, and after the bust of '08.

Being crazy busy with some grad study stuff, moving "out of state" is nice and refreshing; enjoying so far the bustle, and it keeps my mind off money and crises.

I should pick up the push ups and chin ups routine I had months ago. At least 6mi bike commuting a day is being good, though I fall for the sugar too much.
 
Prest_400 said:
That is interesting! Wish I had a copy of that newsletter to read, although often times newsletters just have nothing interesting.

I have a bad feeling indeed. Hope not to be caught pants down as us younger generations don't have a nice island to plant feet on... I often think about passive income, nice assets and would wish for an apartment in the center of town, even if to rent and make cash!

Real estate wise, Spain went back to a bubble like state and so the more things change the more of the same. Moved up to Scandinavia and read that housing appreciated 14% in a year. Jees.

Although shortly, having a poor man's mindset and working at a bank makes money thinking enjoyable. Even if we were teens in 2007, most people my generation don't have that vision of how things were. Blame my dad for pointing things before, during, and after the bust of '08.

Being crazy busy with some grad study stuff, moving "out of state" is nice and refreshing; enjoying so far the bustle, and it keeps my mind off money and crises.

I should pick up the push ups and chin ups routine I had months ago. At least 6mi bike commuting a day is being good, though I fall for the sugar too much.
Click to expand...

Jorde,

PM me your e-mail and I will spam you. I get all kinds of newsletters.

I feel like I live in a bubble myself. Things like my health is my responsibility, and this is not the government's resposibility, meanwhile I see all these overweight and unfit people neglecting themselves. Pretty evident that diet and exercise could reduce the cost of healthcare here in the U.S., yet the government subsidizes the corn and sugar industries and has policies that support having the highest health care costs in the world.

Am I the only person who recognizes this?

A while back I discovered that at heart I'm an anthropologist because I study human nature, government organizations and policies, and urban civilization. This also deeply gets involved with politics, the government, and the economy.

I doubt someone with a MBA would have the interdisciplinary skills to intergrate the amount of data I compile and process.

If you have noticed, weather patterns now stagnate, so patterns are becoming very clear. Hurricane Harvey "stalled" over Houston and with over 10 inches of rain caused flooding on an unprecidented level. Temperatures are more extream with colder winters and hotter summers. Even further north like in Canada in Montreal they have reported heat related deaths. In London their infrastructure is unprepared for "heat waves."

Droughts and desertification is happening out in California and the Southwest.

So I live in a bubble, only because I take notice of what is happening. In last year's Photoville it was easy to connect the dots. I could see how global warming caused drought, then famine, then civil war that led to a refugee crisis, even though they were displayed in separate exhibits.

Perhaps it is better to say/claim that we all live in bubbles, because these calamities are in the news, but somehow under reported. You have to know that I am trained as a journalist and have a MA in TV Broadcast Journalism. The facts are out there, the truth is evident, but yet "Joe Smoe" lacks the training or critical thinking to fill in the blanks and get the bigger picture.

When I day-traded it required reading the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times cover-to-cover. On the weekends I would read the weekend edition of the Journal, and the Sunday Times as my "data-feed." This amount of understanding of complexity was time intensive, but it was easy to see that government and business is really the same thing.

A lot of what I see now is herd mentality. The danger is that passive investing now presently is a trend to the extent that that there really is no diversification, everyone is playing the same game, and when everyone reverts to a mob mentality and heads for the exits-selling the "regression to the mean" will be unprecidented. "Look out below," I say. Mucho sellers and no buyers. Pretty much assets for no money. The hard part is being patient, sticking with the plan, and just waiting. Delayed gratification at its best, but requires mucho discipline.

The way I see it the housing bubble and credit crisis was reinflated by a huge debt bubble that clearly is unsustainable. I have been sitting on a huge cash position for a while. I know I made my up mind when Trump got elected, I lost out on some pretty big gains since then, and the market looks to remain bullish for the next year or two ahead. I can tell you that sitting on cash is not easy, cash surely is taking a position on the market, and the uneasiness rivals trading in a margin account.

Pretty much I'm speculating that the next downturn might become labeled "The Greater Depression" (my term). Odds are a bit on my side and so is history. This is a long bull market, and bull markets don't last forever. The Trump pump via tax cuts during a time of relative prosperity will compound the losses, and to me this is like a "head fake."

It is known that it is very difficult to time the market. They also say a broken watch tells the right time twice a day, but my bet is that I have another year or two to get ready for the likely biggest sell off of my lifetime. 2007-2008 will look rather like a speed bump. This is my bet. The longest bull market in history will be compounded by a debt crisis, "Look out-below."

Also realize that the stock market is a "zero sum game" where over time only 10% are the winners and 90% are loosers. The money has to come from somewhere. I played that game once in 2007-2008 and won; now a decade later it is a different game. "Time is the best weapon" the Chinese say.

Cal
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom