That Rising Dollar Feeling again?

[eleskin]

I guess I have to say I do not feel good about this. The Euro is collapsing and the EU concept may go into the toilet bowel. I still have not bought the M9 (finances, taxes, home repairs, AGGGHHH, but what are you going to do?).

I guess this means for us in the USA that prices may come down at some point (M9 and other foreign goods), but it is too bad the cause is global economic collapse!

 

[splitimageview]

Things that cannot be sustained will collapse, it's inevitable. Government mega-spending will end, so there will ultimately be some good out of this, but it won't be fun to experience the transition.

 

[imokruok]

At $1.24, I'm not worrying. Keep in mind that the euro was well under a buck in its early years!

For dollar holders buying foreign goods, it might be a great time to buy...but the US prices likely won't reflect it unless the rate holds for a long time. Any M9 you buy now is already in the retail chain at old exchange rates. The way to take advantage from a quick dip would be to buy from an overseas dealer who would sell to you, since you'd get the good exchange rate and they don't have to charge you the VAT. Problem is, you're probably paying MSRP if you're buying from Europe...

 

[noimmunity]

it's the pound

it's the pound

It's the pound rather than the euro per se that should be the cause for concern. The pound is going come under attack before the euro fails.

After that point, neither Japan nor the United States are safe, as international reserve currencies will all be subject to failure.

The long term crisis is far from over, and far from reaching its pinnacle.

 

[Ranchu]

The riots sure got the bankers to reach for the checkbook right quick. Anybody got pics?

Not exactly a smart idea to have a common currency without a common fiscal policy, it turns out. Guess they figured they could fix it later, ha. Lot of that over here in the US, for sure.

Don't feel bad, our banks are insolvent too.

 

[larmarv916]

The "currency wars" are now coming into a process of convergence to where the USD is not going up in reality. Rather the Euro a Sterling are all suffering from the same medical issues. While long term the AUSSIE is going up long term against the USD, Euro, Sterling. Currently the Aussie is in a short correction phase. So the Euro and Sterling move closer to a parity relationship. Where they will both trade at the same exchange rates to the USD and then the move on towards a parity where all three are almost exactly the same exchange rate....a global currency. The Yen long term will keep getting weaker...remember back in the mid 80's we saw an exchange rate to the USD of 250 at one point.

The Problem with Leica is that they will never lower actual dealer prices. Leica is having a shareholder meeting almost as we speak to figure out how to deal with the latest lack of profitability issues. i expect to see the new S2 get the AXE.

Global contraction is still a reality and will be for some time to come. Sad but True. The Debt problems and lack of an actual recovery both in the USA and Europe is getting harder and harder to hide. The new UK government will be facing a challenge worse than the situation in 1976. The US has an even worse problem and already blew 7.6 trillion in debt in the first 12 months of the new white house. So my question is who will be buying M9's with unemployment benefits.

 

[Ranchu]

The "currency wars" are now coming into a process of convergence to where the USD is not going up in reality. Rather the Euro a Sterling are all suffering from the same medical issues. While long term the AUSSIE is going up long term against the USD, Euro, Sterling. Currently the Aussie is in a short correction phase. So the Euro and Sterling move closer to a parity relationship. Where they will both trade at the same exchange rates to the USD and then the move on towards a parity where all three are almost exactly the same exchange rate....a global currency. The Yen long term will keep getting weaker...remember back in the mid 80's we saw an exchange rate to the USD of 250 at one point.

Excellent analysis!

 

[larmarv916]

Thanks Ranchu...The goal for all of us to understand that on one hand the contracting world economy effect many things more that camera equipment prices. The niche that we rangefinder user are in is so narrow that in many cases...the so called hard core collectors are actually wasting money on museum type collections at home.....you know the guy who has 1 of every type of lens or body. Regardless of what brand. Because at the end of the day. More equipment is coming out to the market as a way to create "cash" as other needs now force sales. There are only two classes of items for sale...users, and real mint ( new in box). That means that investment grade camera and lenses are now not a good idea for the future.

The Yen based camera companies will need to keep a currency advantage in order to make sure the as consumers have less "disposable cash" for camera goodies.....a cheap yen will give Japan the true economic stimulus of cash flow from consumer sales...even in a declining global economy.

The worst thing that can happen for shooter is that film actual vanishes . Then everything from the film age is suddenly worth zero! So we need to as a group be very vocal towards films companies...to keep producing. Make your voice or "our" voice as a group heard. I think a mass email program towards that end is a good idea. Also contact the Press Relations officers. Every Email that is received is the same as 400 phone calls !!

 

[Ben Z]

I hate to sound like a sourpuss, but there have been fluctuations in the dollar:euro before, yet I haven't seen Leica's US prices go anywhere but up...much more than can be justified by the numbers related to currency exchange, on lenses and film bodies (smartly Leica USA has held the line on the M8/9). So whatever happens in the economy at large, I'm not holding my breath for Leica's US prices to drop.

 

[Eric T]

It is important that we do our part to save the world economy and buy as much new gear as possible.

 

[Al Patterson]

Well, for those of living in the US, a rising dollar is better than a falling one.

That said, it will take a large and long term downward trend of the Euro to lower Leica prices in the US.

What Eric T said above is probably the best post in the thread so far.

 

[Olsen]

Al,

I tnink that you Americans should expect Leica to come along with a 'low Euro campaign rebate' within a few weeks. Or as soon as possible. The drop of the Euro compared to the dollar is an excellent oportunity for European exporters, from Daimler Benz to Leica to increase sales in USA.

 

[parasko]

If only this would happen in Australia. Instead we'll continue to see ridiculous mark-up retail prices in this country...sigh!

Al,

I tnink that you Americans should expect Leica to come along with a 'low Euro campaign rebate' within a few weeks. Or as soon as possible. The drop of the Euro compared to the dollar is an excellent oportunity for European exporters, from Daimler Benz to Leica to increase sales in USA.

 

[gdi]

Al,

I tnink that you Americans should expect Leica to come along with a 'low Euro campaign rebate' within a few weeks. Or as soon as possible. The drop of the Euro compared to the dollar is an excellent oportunity for European exporters, from Daimler Benz to Leica to increase sales in USA.

It would be nice if that happens AND there are M9s to be had.

The supply is still spotty here.

 

[Olsen]

A few things about the currency situation right now.

To me it looks like some kind of currency war going on between USA and EU. US medias, like Wall Street Journal, have 'talked the Euro down'. By this, they have strengthen the US$. Sure, the Greek economy looks bad. But many states in the US is even worse off. Like California.

Have Greeks been living beyond their means?

Well, they have been hampered with a huge foreign debt from the military dictatorship 35 years ago which they should never have acknowledged. They have also borrowed huge sums to finance expensive weapons programs from USA since they have this antagonistic situation going on with Turkey. Like the purchase of a huge fleet of F-16s. - A huge sum of money in a country where quite a few still ride donkeys to the market each morning.

Still, the most devastating has been the collaps of the tourist real estate market, due to the downturn of the world economy as a result of the US toxic waste clogging the European financial system. The ruling Conservative/Populistic government at the time (won the election on 'lower taxes' and 'ban on imigration' - slogans) saved private banks by pouring in taxpayers money. Like the US TARPS program. But without informing the outside world of the extent of this operation. It was the following socialist government under Papandreou that found out about the poor state of affairs; Greece could no longer serve it's credit.

Much has been said in US press about the lavish lives of the Greeks, 'living beyond their means' with lavish pensions from the age of 42, and so on. This is a wildly exageration of the situation, and a way of blaming the country's problems on ordinary people. Sure, most countries in the world that have public pension systems and a rising life expectancy age have to reform their pension systems. Greece included.

Still...

Most Americans would find the Greek living standard and pensions far lower than they are used to.

A far greater problem in Greece is the low willingness to pay taxes among greeks and the corruption etc. Neither any of the two largest businesses in Greece; tourism and shipping, pay any taxes at all. Like in most of the world today, the mantra in Greece has been that 'taxes are bad for the economy'... Which is is lot of BS. Greece is the excellent example of the oposite.

Are American tax payers supporting 'a lavish Greek livingstandard', like the US congresswoman Cathy Morris Rodges claims?

No, it is the oposite!

USA, that has no money, borrows by issuing Treasury Bonds, with a cost of 3 - 4% pro anno. Then USA, that covers 16% of all IMF funds lends out that money on to Greece at 8,5% pro anno!

Greece? It's a thriving business for USA. Has always been. So, Cathy Morris Rodges is way off the mark.

It should be mentioned that we, the citizens of the nations that lends money to USA by buying US Treasury Bills dont ask about the lavish way this money is spent. Like on enormous CEO salaries and bonuses. For not to say wars. But we should.