The Leica Predicament — 2014 Outlook and Beyond

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Just an idiot yapping his mouth...
this smart phone camera business will be a 90% of the market in a few years...DSLR maybe for the remaining 9%, and digital range finders be the other 1%.
Look at the sales of compacts now...there isn't a lot of reason to buy a $100 compact digital when you can get a smart phone that takes decent pictures for $0 (with a contract).
In the 5 years prior, DSLR gives a big jump in IQ when compared to compact digitals so there is a reason to own them. Nowdays a Nokia cameraphone can shoot RAW! So unless you need 10 + frame / second, there isn't a whole lot of value for the bulk.
The only value of a mirror less is less bulk than a DSLR, which is still much bigger than a camera phone. It is my opinion that this market will be created (and destroyed) faster than DSLR
For digital range diners, my concern is that this new factory makes Leica too ambitious (which is what i think happens with a PE) in trying to fill this technology created "temporary" market place and take on debt, they should be reasonably ok.
In the next 5 - 15 years I think you will see everyone coming out with sensors of all size that can shoot ISO 100,000 and that I believe will be the end of technological progress (like film development in the 80s) or be replaced by something else entirely

Man, there's so much wrong in the above that I don't know where to start. Even saying that there's a 1 to 9 ratio for rangefinder to DSLR market share sounds horrendously out of whack.

You really are pulling out the above out of your ass aren't ye?
 
Zeiss is different and disadvantaged in this regard...They have almost shifted their entire 135 format lens production to Cosina, quoting high labor cost in Germany as a main reason. . .
"Quoting" this? Where? No, they license production elsewhere. This is NOT the same as "shifting" production.

Cheers,

R.
 
as I see it they REALLY underestimated the popularity of digital cameras and invested their funds accordingly. Once Kodak realized the mistake Canon and Nikon have already pulled ahead with better systems and sensors, and their revenue was falling double digits every quarter.

Kodak invested heavily into digital, more and for longer than the (comparatively small) Japanese SLR makers Canon and Nikon did. Their real problem was that they never were a camera company - to them, cameras were just a platform for marketing film. They apparently intended to transfer that approach to digital sensors, and leave camera production to others. But at that they stumbled over the different workings of the electronics component market. When you sell to a billion consumers and small businesses, you define the product and the price - but when you have four or five huge corporations buy 90% of your chip production, it is these that dictate what you have to make, and at what price.
 
Kodak invested heavily into digital, more and for longer than the (comparatively small) Japanese SLR makers Canon and Nikon did. Their real problem was that they never were a camera company - to them, cameras were just a platform for marketing film. They apparently intended to transfer that approach to digital sensors, and leave camera production to others. But at that they stumbled over the different workings of the electronics component market. When you sell to a billion consumers and small businesses, you define the product and the price - but when you have four or five huge corporations buy 90% of your chip production, it is these that dictate what you have to make, and at what price.

It probably didn't help that Kodak had many competitors in the digital sensor market.
 
Just my two cents as a economist by training and decade-long interest in the tech industry:

In all industries, those who have their own supply chain and know-how usually wins in the end. Comparing Apple and Samsung, the common onlooker may think that Apple is the more promising company.

That's worked out so well for Sony, after all.

Just kidding (sort of), but Apple controls something that Samsung does not: the software that runs its devices.
 
When I die, I hope my three sons will bury at least one Leica M with me, so it does not come in the hands of somebody that just see the "money value" in it...
 
Thanks for that insightful detail re sensor production.

Where are M9 (M-E now) sensors produced currently, since I have been waiting many months for supply of a replacement to Australia?

They are made by Truesense imaging, which used to be Kodak's sensor division and was spun-off to Platinum Equity as part of Kodak's death spiral selling off what few valuable assets it has left.

I believe they have their own fab in Rochester, NY, but it was originally set up in 1979 which is an eternity in the semiconductor world. I don't think they are the bottleneck, though, Leica's reduced capacity to make M bodies at the same time it is shifting its production to its new Wetzlar factory is probably the culprit, and you can understand if Leica is prioritizing M240 production over the M-E.

I think Leica's Predicament actually has to to do with their inability to obtain replacement M sensors (and maybe even new CMOS M sensors) in sufficient numbers to sustain customer loyalty and respect.

I doubt it. ST Microelectronics is a very solid firm with world-class technology (their process used for the M240 is significantly more advanced than Sony's). Leica is moving its production from Solms to Wetzlar, and that's got to be disruptive for a relatively small company like them. Another issue is that they had to shed much of their staff when they nearly went bankrupt circa 2004 or so, and rebuilding human capital takes time.

I can see you don`t know these guys (Alfred Schopf-CEO of Leica and Dr A kaufmann) at all. the reason A Kaufmann invested his family`s EXTRA resources to save Leica was, it was an EUROPEAN BRAND, a luxury brand and a brand "his kind of guys" wanted to be associated with. I think it will NEVER happen again that leica produces items for either of these far east companies. Even the sensor manufacturer is now European (Belgian).

Kudos to Dr. Kaufmann. It took guts to bet his personal fortune on a company that was at the edge of bankruptcy in 2004, and turn it around within a decade into one of the very few profitable camera makers (only Canon and Nikon manage that feat today).

As for the sensors, they were designed in Belgium but are made in France by a Franco-Italian company. Also, a substantial part of Leica production is done in Portugal, even if they don't like to trumpet it. The electronics modules are made by Jenoptik (the former East European half of Zeiss). Probably the only non-European components are the battery, LCD and the MAESTRO processor, which is a rebranded Fujitsu Milbeaut imaging SOC (albeit one based on the British ARM architecture).

Just my two cents as a economist by training and decade-long interest in the tech industry:

In all industries, those who have their own supply chain and know-how usually wins in the end.

The economic and managerial consensus is actually against vertical integration and for focusing on core competencies and outsourcing everything else, and that has been the case for at least 30 years now.

The only vertically-integrated camera makers are Canon, Sony and Samsung. Canon is lagging because its sensor technology is uncompetitive with Sony, Toshiba or Aptina due to under-investment in its sensor fabs. Sony is lagging in cameras for the opposite reason - good sensors, but poorly received bodies (whether this is justified or not is irrelevant), limited lens range, and lagging marketing. As for Samsung, apart from its home market in Korea, its camera business is an abject failure, which is why it was recently folded into the successful phone division.
 
I find it hard to believe that Leica will move away from range finders, it's the only reason (other than just liking them) to buy a new Leica. If they go to EVF etc. then it's just another selling point removed.

I agree. Without the M, Leica is not unique.
 
I agree. Without the M, Leica is not unique.

The last time they tried to discontinue the M system they n early got bankrupted, if I remember correctly.

Now it seems they want to try again...I might be mistaken but I don't why a customer should spend thousands of dollars, euros or pounds for a rebranded Leica camera when he can get excellent Sony, Fuji or any other brands in the shop for few hundreds.
 
The only reason to buy a Leica is the RF. Lots of other cameras accept Leica glass with an adapter.

But you never bought a nice 35mm wide-angle to then see it 'adapted' into becoming a 70mm portrait lens on m43 for example. Apart from RF a major reason for many is the full-frame sensors of the Leica M family providing the original fov of your m-lenses. Until very recently there was not a single alternative to Leica's M9/ME/M on the market.
 
But you never bought a nice 35mm wide-angle to then see it 'adapted' into becoming a 70mm portrait lens on m43 for example. Apart from RF a major reason for many is the full-frame sensors of the Leica M family providing the original fov of your m-lenses. Until very recently there was not a single alternative to Leica's M9/ME/M on the market.

Exactly! Every day brings me a little closer to an A7, but I'm just not excited about the camera itself. I truly wish an affordable alternative to M9/ME/M would show up. Affordable is always a debatable term: for me, that's under $2000 or so. Of course I can stretch up a little, but it should be for a good reason. I have plenty invested in Leica (Leica mount) glass, that's where the big bucks got spent (and my now worthless Nikon AIS collection).
 
As sensors advance the matching of lens and sensor to get the best out of the combination is becoming paramount. The poor, relatively, performance of Leica glass on the A7r against the native glass designed for that sensor is an example. The open platform concept is going to come under increasing pressure, unless you are happy to have a performance compromise of course. Recent Lens Rentals Blogs have demonstrated the under performance, at extreme peeping, of the adaptors required as well.
This leaves Leica optimising for the lenses they have out there, a lot, and new glass of course. That is a niche they may have to draw back to if the high end consumer market stops delivering.
That "old" market doesn't want EVF or video (Nikon see that with the Df, not selling very well we are told, but probably because the market demographic doesn't want another 50mm lens and they are bundle only, marketing error there I think) Leica wants to draw in a new ownership before the old one dies, literally , but will that work?
BTW Leica dealers in the UK are offering discount on new M240 cameras, that early demand and short supply seems to have been satisfied rather rapidly!!
 
I hear you regarding matching lenses to sensor. Perhaps the one reason why I don't already have the A7. I'd rather not use Cornerfix, and who knows how else I'm suffering with the "unmatched" sensor?

I'm not so sure Leica-types (us owner/users) are averse to an EVF, provided it's up to standards. The M-E is nearly unobtainable right now, presumably because of high demand. I'm pretty sure would use one (although haven't held one to really know).

The Df is an interesting story, isn't it? I felt the need to "abandon" my Nikon SLR system (and I'm rather invested in both bodies and glass) because there wasn't a Df available as the digitals came on. Now that its here, it almost feels too late. At least, I'm not feeling the pull to get one and of all people, I aught to. You never know.

Most of all, I continue to hope for a Leica-oriented FF digital at price I can afford. Or perhaps the Leica offerings will drop into the price range that represents my market and I'll nab one then. I wonder what that UK discount is...
 
I don't know how many of you here have taken the time to look at Jukka's images. If you haven't then you really should take a look. It's a great collection of work from the 60's to present day.

John, you are right on there! Jukka's pictures are great! They give some encouragement to pursue my own style more... I need that right now. Thanks Jukka!
 
John, you are right on there! Jukka's pictures are great! They give some encouragement to pursue my own style more... I need that right now. Thanks Jukka!
Thanks, buddies... Nice to hear ! I am 70 now and look forward to get some new inspiration from you young guys.. In the meantime I just have to search my files and find new Images I like to print again...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/40146285@N08/11493701636/
 
Thanks, buddies... Nice to hear ! I am 70 now and look forward to get some new inspiration from you young guys.. In the meantime I just have to search my files and find new Images I like to print again...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/40146285@N08/11493701636/

Just had a look very nice.

Talking of money off Leica Ms I noticed the other day that here in the UK anyway if you buy an Xpro1 with an 18mm you can claim a free lens! As much as I like my m9 if I was buying again that would be a hard deal to ignore, maybe if you already have Leica lenses then its an easy decision to stay with Leica.
 
Just had a look very nice.

Talking of money off Leica Ms I noticed the other day that here in the UK anyway if you buy an Xpro1 with an 18mm you can claim a free lens! As much as I like my m9 if I was buying again that would be a hard deal to ignore, maybe if you already have Leica lenses then its an easy decision to stay with Leica.
I got my first leica, a Black M2 from my father, a leica shooter since 1928. That was 1968.
That I gave to my first wife when we divorced. I got a MP (original # 302...)
That I sold when the price on the collector market started to be astronmical.
I got a M4-2 and M4-P with rapidwinders. In 2006 I bought a used M3 (chrome) that was unused maybe 20 years, It needed only usage, now it has M4 brand new finder ( clear , with 35mm framelines) I got in 2010 a M8. I gave recently the M4-2 to my 23 year old son. So now I have just 3 leicas and some lenses with 21-35-50-135 mm lenses + visoflex that I modified for hasselblad bayonet (120 macro and 180mm V series lenses)
I am happy with my system, then I have some hasselblads, X pan and a couple 6x6 bodies with 70mm cassettes. I shoot Hasselblads mainly in studio on a tripod, leicas ( and X pan) i carry frequently. I store only the good frames, the bad ones I throw away mercilessly. I might shoot four films and scan/ print only 2-3 frames, all other to "round archive"- Waste bin...
 
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