BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

[RObert Budding]

Dear Robert,

I share your cynicism when it comes to economists, and there are plenty of politicians who are no more reliable; but when you combine the opinions of economists, politicians, scientists, business leaders, and academics in almost all fields, the Leave campaign doesn't have much intellectual weight behind it.

Then consider that the official Leave campaign is led by an unprincipled opportunist liar, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and that the less official version is backed by Nigel Farage because A.B. de P. J. isn't loony enough for him...

Actually, all economists can explain what happen, because ex post facto explanations are the very stuff of economics, and a few can even explain convincingly: read Ha-Joon Chang, for example. Some also warned that it was going to happen.

I somewhat doubt that many who favour Brexit are much into buying anything directly from other EU countries, because they don't want their cameras smelling of garlic or being stuffed with sausages, even if there were no risk that when you opened the back door of any film camera bought from Europe, 70 million tiny Turks and Albanians would immediately pour out.

The only supporter of UKIP (for Americans, the UK Independence Party) that I knew at all well (he's dead now) was in his 80s before he developed those views, which were greatly at odds with those of his younger, more rational self.

Cheers,

R.

The UK has less reason to leave the Eurozone than most other countries because they retained monetary sovereignty. It's Greece and Spain that should bail.

A few non-mainstream economists have reasonable explanations for the financial crisis. But the dominant school of thought has been the Chicago School (I was educated at U Chicago, but I believe that their economics is rubbish). The DSG macro models can not explain involuntary unemployment. The best they can offer is that workers suddenly developed increased preference for leisure.

But I do believe that Hyman Minsky had it right: stability breeds instability.

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp74.pdf

 

[jojoman2]

i'm seeing a good bit more common sense the past couple of pages (i've been away 12 hours), but most of the posters continue looking down their elitist noses at the so-called knuckle-draggers - who just rubbed the elitist noses in the mud ... 🙂

Sooooo Trump?

....

So much animosity here. There's a parallel between the "Make America 'Great' Again" folks and the nativism & xenophobia evident in this vote. "common sense" my a**, it's just fear. fear and ignorance.

 

[paulfish4570]

better than the traitor ... 🙂

 

[sojournerphoto]

i'm seeing a good bit more common sense the past couple of pages (i've been away 12 hours), but most of the posters continue looking down their elitist noses at the so-called knuckle-draggers - who just rubbed the elitist noses in the mud ... 🙂

I fear they'll be rubbing their own noses in the mud too.

 

[ian_watts]

I don't care about winning hearts and minds in the UK, what I care is to find a good paid job in Euroland possibly in a country with a NHS that really works so I don't have to worry to die if I have a heart failure or things like that.

I think you have to have a heart before you need to worry about its failure. You seem to be a right little ray of sunshine with your incessant whinging, breathtaking sense of entitlement and unashamed bigotry ("muslims in the East End, etc."). I feel saddened by the recent vote but not because of the consequences for me and people of my generation (I'm in my forties) but for my daughter and other young people. For you, it seems to be entirely about "me, me, me".🙄

 

[p.giannakis]

I am an EU citizen living in UK. As a result of Brexit, me and my family are facing possibly deportation. If I could vote in this referendum, I would have voted to remain.


But that would have been out of fear for my family's future rather than because we need to save the EU.


There is something important that citizens of the 'rich EU North' do not understand. That their prosperity counts on the fact that the poor south (Greece, Spain, Italy) will have to submit to everlasting austerity – this way it allows EU fund to flow from EU banks to local banks and get paid again as tax back to rich German/French/British banks. This is the first time after WW2 that there has been such a rich north and so poor south. Businesses and corporations have been bought for a loaf of bread by big German companies over the last few years in Greece.
The EU survives on this model, it needs cheap labour from countries of the poor south. Austerity is sustained via 'Credit events'. Visit Wikileaks (click here) to read the transcript of a discussion between two IMF officials, Mr Tomsen and Mrs Velkouleskou planing a 'credit event' in order to force Greek government to accept the new austerity measures – feel free to be disgusted. IMF stated 'No comment', the EU embraced it in silence. Greece is facing austerity for 7 years now. This is the true face of the EU (if you are not privileged to live on the North.


How do Greek members of this forum feels about the Brexit? What about the Spanish and Italians of this forum – they are potentially the 'next-Greece'? I would love to hear their view on Brexit.

 

[Richard G]

I am an EU citizen living in UK. As a result of Brexit, me and my family are facing possibly deportation. If I could vote in this referendum, I would have voted to remain.


But that would have been out of fear for my family's future rather than because we need to save the EU.


There is something important that citizens of the 'rich EU North' do not understand. That their prosperity counts on the fact that the poor south (Greece, Spain, Italy) will have to submit to everlasting austerity – this way it allows EU fund to flow from EU banks to local banks and get paid again as tax back to rich German/French/British banks. This is the first time after WW2 that there has been such a rich north and so poor south. Businesses and corporations have been bought for a loaf of bread by big German companies over the last few years in Greece.
The EU survives on this model, it needs cheap labour from countries of the poor south. Austerity is sustained via 'Credit events'. Visit Wikileaks (click here) to read the transcript of a discussion between two IMF officials, Mr Tomsen and Mrs Velkouleskou planing a 'credit event' in order to force Greek government to accept the new austerity measures – feel free to be disgusted. IMF stated 'No comment', the EU embraced it in silence. Greece is facing austerity for 7 years now. This is the true face of the EU (if you are not privileged to live on the North.


How do Greek members of this forum feels about the Brexit? What about the Spanish and Italians of this forum – they are potentially the 'next-Greece'? I would love to hear their view on Brexit.

I hope they'll grant you and your family permanent residence. Indeed they may soon be begging you to stay. Many financial houses will pull back their people from London and keeping you and many others is likely to become a priority.

 

[ian_watts]

I am an EU citizen living in UK. As a result of Brexit, me and my family are facing possibly deportation.

Small comfort I know but I don't think there is any question of anyone currently living here facing deportation at any point.

This referendum has been an absolute shambles from beginning to end. It was called for entirely the wrong reasons, conducted in a shameful fashion (on all sides) and has left the country utterly directionless.😡

 

[Roger Hicks]

At 8:25 GMT (9:25 BST, 10:25 French time) there were 850,000 signatures on the petition to re-run the referendum: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Anyone who can sign this (British citizens and residents only), should.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Gid]

I am an EU citizen living in UK. As a result of Brexit, me and my family are facing possibly deportation.

All through this process all parties have stated strongly that there will be no repatriation of any EU nationals living and working in the UK so you have nothing to worry about. People from Europe lived and worked in the UK long before freedom of movement came into being but generally you did have to have a job and a visa. I don't see the situation becoming any worse than that and probably much less stringent.

 

[wolves3012]

At 8:25 GMT (9:25 BST, 10:25 French time) there were 850,000 signatures on the petition to re-run the referendum: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Anyone who can sign this (British citizens and residents only), should.

Cheers,

R.

I have to disagree with this. The referendum was held on a simple basis, more than 50% of votes means a win. If 2 people voted for and 1 against, then "for" wins. Simple. It's called democracy. Irrespective of my opinions on the outcome, I have to accept it and this action is simply sour grapes on the part of the losers. Which part of my logic is wrong please?

 

[Gid]

At 8:25 GMT (9:25 BST, 10:25 French time) there were 850,000 signatures on the petition to re-run the referendum: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Anyone who can sign this (British citizens and residents only), should.

Cheers,

R.

The problem with this is, do you keep re-running the referendum until those who don't like the result (any side) get their way? My opinion for what it is worth is that there should have been a much greater majority required over such a contentious matter. I would have been happy with a two thirds majority requirement. At least then there might have been less post referendum animosity.

 

[___ole kekkonen]

I have to disagree with this. The referendum was held on a simple basis, more than 50% of votes means a win. If 2 people voted for and 1 against, then "for" wins. Simple. It's called democracy. Irrespective of my opinions on the outcome, I have to accept it and this action is simply sour grapes on the part of the losers. Which part of my logic is wrong please?

Maybe regret😀
https://www.google.de/search?sclien...0i13i30j0i13i10i30j0i19j0i8i13i30.k4JES7Njagk

 

[Roger Hicks]

. . . Which part of my logic is wrong please?

Major constitutional changes are not normally made on such bases. Cameron never believed people would be crazy enough to vote for his ill thought out attempt to stop the right wing of the Tory party behaving like the Kippers they are, and the Leave brigade themselves are now admitting that their arguments were fraudulent.

I agree that trying to overturn the referendum in this way is undesirable, but it's not as undesirable as Brexit. I firmly believe that many people voted to leave "in order to send a message", not believing for a moment that they'd win.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Roger Hicks]

. . . My opinion for what it is worth is that there should have been a much greater majority required over such a contentious matter. I would have been happy with a two thirds majority requirement. At least then there might have been less post referendum animosity.

Which, indeed, sums it up.

BUT:

If Parliament is sovereign (as the Kippers and Brexiteers keep saying it should be) then they can do it. And should.

For that matter, they can ignore the referendum result entirely. But re-running the referendum would make it look better than that.

Cheers,

R.

 

[wolves3012]

For that matter, they can ignore the referendum result entirely. But re-running the referendum would make it look better than that.

Cheers,

R.

Political suicide for whoever was brave enough to try, I suspect, for either case. And probably not a good way to get the result reversed. The British people have made a decision, right or wrong and now we have to get on with it. I think it would be very foolish of anyone to say, in effect, "we don't like the result, can we do it again please?"

 

[Roger Hicks]

All through this process all parties have stated strongly that there will be no repatriation of any EU nationals living and working in the UK so you have nothing to worry about. People from Europe lived and worked in the UK long before freedom of movement came into being but generally you did have to have a job and a visa. I don't see the situation becoming any worse than that and probably much less stringent.

On the other hand:

The EU might (understandably) want to make an example of the UK in order to discourage other demagogues from promoting leave in their own countries; and it is some way from impossible that such things as the EHIC card and indeed medical care for retired people will be lost.

There's also the question of Schengen visas for British citizens living abroad.

Unless these things affect you directly it's easy to gloss over any potential difficulties.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Political suicide for whoever was brave enough to try, I suspect, for either case. And probably not a good way to get the result reversed. The British people have made a decision, right or wrong and now we have to get on with it. I think it would be very foolish of anyone to say, in effect, "we don't like the result, can we do it again please?"

But is it foolish to say, "This was a shambles, fuelled by lies".

Right now (9:12 GMT, 10:12 BST) there are 935,000 "fools" who disagree with you. In the time it took me to check the web address, that had risen to 938,000; two minutes later it was 941,000...

People like Boris are now looking for a way out. This could offer it to them. Check https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215 for current numbers: 944,000 at 11:16, 950,000 at 11:19. Over 2,000 people A MINUTE are signing this petition.

Further thought: "call me Dave" has already committed political suicide. What has he to lose? It's now 954,000 at 11:21.

Cheers,

R.

 

[wolves3012]

But is it foolish to say, "This was a shambles, fuelled by lies".

Right now (9:12 GMT, 10:12 BST) there are 935,000 "fools" who disagree with you. In the time it took me to check the web address, that had risen to 938,000; two minutes later it was 941,000...

People like Boris are now looking for a way out. This could offer it to them. Check https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215 for current numbers: 944,000 at 11:16.

Cheers,

R.

Roger, I understand fully what you're saying, as I also understand why these people signed. Yes, the whole thing was a shambles on both sides and none of the "facts" presented were indeed facts. This is largely because the "facts" related to a future that had not happened. However, we could ALL have abstained from voting if we didn't like the terms (something that I admit was not a likely scenario). We elect politicians and governments on more tenuous "majorities" so I still don't see how the result doesn't stand.

 

[bonatto]

The talk of sore losers is a bit silly, given it's not really a game win lose type event. Long term, maybe? Right now it's seems that the markets lose, retail investors lose, underprivileged youth benefited by EU investment lose, FDI loses, EU loses. If there is a legitimate grounds for not triggering art. 50 then there's possible an out to some of the uncertainty. For sure, a lot of change has already taken place, however.