Coronavirus economic slowdown and GAS

[Deleted member 65559]

jarski

exactly. panic about virus will be more significant than the virus itself, imo.

time to take your head out of the sand......

 

[retinax]

That's over-simplification.

I work for one of the largest health systems in the country. We have more work than we can handle. The COVID-19 panic is over-stressing capacity to the point that we may run out of bed space for other emergencies (e.g., heart attacks, car accident, GSW, etc...).

So my current income is not affected by COVID-19. I can continue to spend as I always have. However, my portfolio has suffered significant losses and I have less years to recover from that loss. So while my current income is not affected, I am forced to save/invest more than before to make up for the losses. This results in less disposable income.

Ok, I admit it's an over-simplification. However holding back with expenses now will drive us deeper into a recession...
Keep up the good work!

And what you are talking about is not sustainable, people in the U.S. in particular are purposely blind to this, well until now.

I had a record year last year...last time I had a record year the economy crashed in 2008, I should take that as a warning sign. When the last crash happened I had over $100K in the bank and no debt, cheap rent and kept most of my regular clients. This time however is different. I have a big house payment, a 1/4 of that in the bank and some CC debt due to major home improvements last year. On the plus side, I have literally abut ten years worth of film, paper and chemistry to use so I am set on that front.

What is really bad though is that so far, jobs for the Summer have been dropping off fast. I am usually quiet this time of year anyway and relish in that so I can make some fine art prints in my darkroom that serves other markets. So I am going to try to quickly liquidate about $10K in photo related assets to pay down debt and keep as much of the balance in the bank as I can.

My wife works in health care and is pretty solidly placed with a very good income after 20 years....fingers crossed I think we will be OK. But what is about to happen in this country will make the 2008 crash and accompanying fallout seem like a lone dollar bill lost in the wash.

What we do on this planet in per capita fashion in terms of consumption, personal effluent and waste has never been sustainable. Having 70% of the U.S. economy rely on consumer spending is NOT sustainable and this is just one virus of many more to come as our ecology rejects us.

I'll do the best I can for as long as I can, I have had a great run in the photo biz but this is real world stuff and it is here and now, lot later, not for future generations. It's now.

I know spending as usual is not sustainable for those whose income is dropping now, which I wrote, so you needn't feel addressed by what I wrote. Also I forgot that on your side of the pond, people buy everything on credit, that makes it tougher of course. Still, fear of a recession brings about a recession. Makes it more important that those who can keep spending money. Unfortunately individual rationality differs - the tragedy of the commons. For me it's easy to practice what I preach in terms of spending because my spending before all this has been small anyway. But if everyone in the industrialized countries suddenly goes to my level of spending, the consequences will be dramatic.
I completely agree about consumerism needing to stop. But celebrating that this crisis does that would be cynical. People will suffer.

 

[raid]

Our planned vacation was to be in Italy. Our first two days were planned for Bergamo. I just saw in a newspaper the following:
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...e-left-a-ffd1c9b6-8d2c-42c9-baa9-a578d185e90a

Bergamo is the epicenter of the corona crisis in Europe right now. Close to 400 people have died there. In an interview, Mayor Giorgio Gori describes the harrowing developments in local hospitals and warns Germany and other countries of what they are facing.

 

[aizan]

One of the saddest things about this crisis is how it's eliciting a lot of ageism. Some of it even coming from seniors, which is cruelly ironic!

 

[raid]

One of the saddest things about this crisis is how it's eliciting a lot of ageism. Some of it even coming from seniors, which is cruelly ironic!

What exactly do you mean? 😕

 

[aizan]

I've seen a lot of people (including seniors) on the Internet being dismissive of things like social distancing, the virus's fatality rate, and how the risk to public health isn't bad enough to take the economic hit.

 

[raid]

They are not being logical or responsible. This is not the time to sleep.

 

[JeffS7444]

I completely agree about consumerism needing to stop.

So stop? While materialistic desires will always exist, will it destroy the economy if people hang onto their toys a little bit longer, acquire newer ones more sparingly, and find enjoyment in older ones? I thought it was the alleged dream of many buyers of higher-end products, that they'd found the proverbial "It" and could stop.

 

[retinax]

So stop? While materialistic desires will always exist, will it destroy the economy if people hang onto their toys a little bit longer, acquire newer ones more sparingly, and find enjoyment in older ones? I thought it was the alleged dream of many buyers of higher-end products, that they'd found the proverbial "It" and could stop.

Huh? Have you read the post you quote from? I fully endorse that, and practice it myself. I'm just trying to point out that if everyone stops spending right now out of fear of a recession, that will bring about a recession or make even worse what is coming anyway.

 

[jarski]

First we elect leaders ...

always a nice touch blaming people when they start suffering...

 

[jarski]

Bangkok Post this morning, no new infections in Wuhan, imported cases still surge (link)

jarski


time to take your head out of the sand......

I'm done reading these corona posts in the forum.

 

[robert blu]

A friend of mine has a pastry shop. They had to close it of course, so no income from clients. But they also hade to destroy all what was ready to eat, to empty all the fridges and destroy or throw away the perishable material which was inside, the throw away all the raw material. This is just to say how even a small family run business can be affected and destroyed but this situation.Multiply it for many shops and small business.

I said to my wife if we survive it will be all different and we'll be all poorer...

 

[Highway 61]

Our planned vacation was to be in Italy. Our first two days were planned for Bergamo. I just saw in a newspaper the following:
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...e-left-a-ffd1c9b6-8d2c-42c9-baa9-a578d185e90a

Bergamo is the epicenter of the corona crisis in Europe right now. Close to 400 people have died there. In an interview, Mayor Giorgio Gori describes the harrowing developments in local hospitals and warns Germany and other countries of what they are facing.

I have spent five days in Bergamo in 2015. This is an absolutely lovely city and I now feel the tragedy. I hadn't noticed that the people there were living in bad sanitary conditions, to say things that way. Now, I wear a small Caberg jet helmet (made in Bergamo) when I ride my Vespa (well, I can't ride my Vespa any longer, being locked at home until another decision coming from my government).

Le Corbusier told that, according to him, the Duomo Piazza of Bergamo (uptown) was the most beautiful in the world. People in Bergamo (where you can eat the best polenta in the world) talk like all Italians do : with their hands.

One...

Two !

Nikon S3 - Nikkor-H-C 50mm f/2 - T-Max 100 - D76 1+1.

 

[valdas]

always a nice touch blaming people when they start suffering...

...you are blaming leaders elected by those people. Is that a big difference? And btw, may post was merely an observation, I am not looking to find who’s responsible, that would be quite a miserable exercise. I think that we always should try to find the solution rather than point fingers.

 

[steveyork]

I've seen a lot of people (including seniors) on the Internet being dismissive of things like social distancing, the virus's fatality rate, and how the risk to public health isn't bad enough to take the economic hit.

I see this too when walking the dog, and not just young people. Lots of grey hairs too. Given the the health and financial implications, it's in everybody's self-interest to stamp this out as soon as possible, like China did, but I don't see the self-will. Even beyond physical sickness, the collateral damage will be significant, and it will effect everyone. I don't get it -- it's not like you're being drafted to go to war or hijacked into chain gang; just stay 6 ft. or more away from people. Not too onerous. I guess the situation has to worsen before some wake up.

 

[robert blu]

I see this too when walking the dog, and not just young people. Lots of grey hairs too. Given the the health and financial implications, it's in everybody's self-interest to stamp this out as soon as possible, like China did, but I don't see the self-will. Even beyond physical sickness, the collateral damage will be significant, and it will effect everyone. I don't get it -- it's not like you're being drafted to go to war or hijacked into chain gang; just stay 6 ft. or more away from people. Not too onerous. I guess the situation has to worsen before some wake up.

I had to go to the pharmacy two hours ago to buy masks so long they were available. There was not a long line, maybe 4 or 5 people. In front of the door was a guard to allow people enter only one each time. This was ok. But people in the line had diffcult to stay two meters, it was necessary continuosly to say please go back 2 meters, the guard had in some cases to shout that...as if they do not understand...we have hundreds of person who die evry day...

Luckly I think for the next 6-7 days I have not to go out ...

 

[lynnb]

Australia's treasurer has said tonight that he expects Australia's international borders will be closed for at least 6 months. No international travel in or outbound. Governments and companies have started to prioritize local markets for goods and spare parts ahead of international markets. Absolutely need that part? Better order now or risk waiting a long time. Will international supply of film be affected? Australia doesn't manufacture film. We are a small market. It's likely that bigger markets will get priority, assuming that freight is still flowing freely - which may turn out to be an ambitious assumption.

I'm OK, I have a freezer full of film. People who don't might want to buy now while stock is still easily available.

 

[raid]

I had to go to the pharmacy two hours ago to buy masks so long they were available. There was not a long line, maybe 4 or 5 people. In front of the door was a guard to allow people enter only one each time. This was ok. But people in the line had diffcult to stay two meters, it was necessary continuosly to say please go back 2 meters, the guard had in some cases to shout that...as if they do not understand...we have hundreds of person who die evry day...

Luckly I think for the next 6-7 days I have not to go out ...

I can feel your stress, Robert. Stay safe and healthy with your wife. It will in the end go away. If everyone will be "poor", then nobody stands out anyways.

 

[helen.HH]

Thank You to those who extended their Loving and Kind Words to Me
in this thread...

Cheers ~ Be well and safe, xo Ever Yours ~ H

 

[KM-25]

Ok, I admit it's an over-simplification. However holding back with expenses now will drive us deeper into a recession...
Keep up the good work!

I know spending as usual is not sustainable for those whose income is dropping now, which I wrote, so you needn't feel addressed by what I wrote. Also I forgot that on your side of the pond, people buy everything on credit, that makes it tougher of course. Still, fear of a recession brings about a recession. Makes it more important that those who can keep spending money. Unfortunately individual rationality differs - the tragedy of the commons. For me it's easy to practice what I preach in terms of spending because my spending before all this has been small anyway. But if everyone in the industrialized countries suddenly goes to my level of spending, the consequences will be dramatic.
I completely agree about consumerism needing to stop. But celebrating that this crisis does that would be cynical. People will suffer.

My wife and I ran some hard numbers yesterday, paired down monthlies like cable, phone, subscriptions, etc. Even if I am a complete bum for the year we would be ok.

I'm actually really looking forward to making the darkroom work a lot more now, certainly have the time and materials.