Well...every film format has significantly fewer users than yesteryear -
According to several film producers the numbers have not only stabilized but are inching upwards...
it is not just a 4x5 problem. Do I see any major film formats being dropped in the near future?
Near? But the largest threat is currently facing 120 film due to the need for the paper backing.
Color maybe, but I cant see any major formats being dropped in B&W.
But.. of course.. Formats are and will be dropped.. The standard program of sheet films has been radically cut by nearly every maker and is being kept alive by a number of advance order schemes. A master roll is a lot of film!
But looking into the distant future...something has got to give. Lets face it - for all intensive purposes film is obsolete.
Its not. Its still alive and kicking in a number of applications such as archiving (microfilm), motion pictures and even traffic (despite a number of new digital approaches).
Digital output is becoming more cost effective than film, it is more efficient in time and materials than film, and it offers image quality that is similar to film (that "film" look can even be duplicated by digital - it may not be exact but it is close enough for most).
Digital can't (and won't) cut the grade a long time in a number of applications especially projection. Beyond even the no-holes-bared-cost-what-it-costs digital cine projector systems (which still don't reach the level of film projection) the single 2K (4Mpixel) projection units (costing $10K and more) don't provide anywhere near the resolution etc. of a 24x36mm projected slide. And the cinemas? How can a $150,000 USD 4K (4096x2400) compare to a good 35mm or 70mm cine print? In still photographic terms: half-frame (or larger) versus 8 Mpixel. Some of the U.S. movie theatre chains like AMC might be switching their postage stamp megaplexes over to digital over the next 2 years but I don't see that happening across the globe anytime in the foreseeable future.
If a film format is going to find active users in the future it has to offer something that digital doesn't.
That's where the Lomos sing their song..
Experimentation with alternative processes will become a much larger part of the hobby.
I think the alt-process scene hit its height back in the 1970s.. It comes back, of course, in cycles... but unfortunately many of the processes are becoming quite difficult for people to perform due to rising costs (gold, platinum), availability (chrome salts such as Potassium Dichromate for bromoil and a number of other processes), suitable rooms disappearing from campuses and schools and... work place regulation (EPA regulations, legislation, OSHA enforcement, liability etc.). What has effected mainstream photographic product availability has and will...
I hope that you're right - 35mm is my favorite format. If cinema is 35mm film's savior then I don't feel too confident in light of the growing acceptance of digital film making and distribution.
Film is not made digital.. Its edited. Digital is part of the workflow but capture and distribution is still film. HDTV is an advancement of video. While some films are being distributed digitally its not an alternative for most cinemas to projection just as ebooks has not dented the demand for paper by book production--- in fact the digitalization and centralization of printing has significantly eased the cost of market entry and increased the potential for profit (alongside Internet product substitution one of the main worries of traditional publishing houses who see their market scale advantage under threat).
How many years before the majority of movies are fully digital products?
When the cinemas are banished from cities, towns and villages. Cinemas continue to exist because they offer something that watching TV--- increasingly 1080p HDTV, surround sound and even 3D--- at home does not offer. If and when digital cinema systems are cost effective enough for mass utilization that same technology will push up the envelope in the home entertainment sector.. I don't see the economy of scale.. and so for a long long time I think we'll still see film running through projectors. If we look at the current numbers.. the demand for cine print materials is at a level significantly above those of any past generation!
but to say that they are one of the largest driving forces for still film sales seems like a stretch.
Just ask companies like Maco (Rollei, Lomo brand films) about their sales! I honestly don't understand it either but the "fad" is big.