back alley
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with luck, i'll be dead by then...
have lens prices peaked?
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jsrockit
Moderator
Perfect response...
I Love Film
Well-known
1) Internet forum effect. Huge numbers of neophytes with little knowledge buying hyped things they read about. Also, many lenses they would never have known about are discussed and touted.
2) Lens fascination in Asia. This is a massive market with people who care very much about the smallest, most intricate details and rarities.
3) eBay
4) Dollar devaluation
5) Soon, high quality digital cameras will start to be produced in China that accept obsolete mounts. You will be able to mount Minolta, Exacta, Konica lenses on full frame "Nikon FE" style digicams.
6) Hundreds of millions of people becoming interested in photography. World population increasing to 8 Billion. More people now buying than the whole photograph market in the past.
All these things will converge to increase prices. A perfect storm.
Having said that, for some reason, I am carefully watching eBay and I notice a small general drop in prices over the last six months. Maybe the calm before the storm. People are holding on to their money and keeping their powder dry short term. There is likely to be a new deeper crash than 2008 coming.
2) Lens fascination in Asia. This is a massive market with people who care very much about the smallest, most intricate details and rarities.
3) eBay
4) Dollar devaluation
5) Soon, high quality digital cameras will start to be produced in China that accept obsolete mounts. You will be able to mount Minolta, Exacta, Konica lenses on full frame "Nikon FE" style digicams.
6) Hundreds of millions of people becoming interested in photography. World population increasing to 8 Billion. More people now buying than the whole photograph market in the past.
All these things will converge to increase prices. A perfect storm.
Having said that, for some reason, I am carefully watching eBay and I notice a small general drop in prices over the last six months. Maybe the calm before the storm. People are holding on to their money and keeping their powder dry short term. There is likely to be a new deeper crash than 2008 coming.
dave lackey
Veteran
My thoughts as well....
MISH
Well-known
I might be dead but I have a few cameras that won't be
Roger Hicks
Veteran
This is why Econ 101 is drivel. Pretty much like anything 101, really. Or pretty much like most economics. Combine the two, and you'd be a fool to believe any of it.
Cheers,
R.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
You believe Leica cut back production? Another Econ 101 generalization, ignoring inconvenient facts.
Economic models generally bear little or no relation to real markets. For a start, they assume rational consumers. Ho. ho, ho.
Cheers,
R.
drec
Rangeflounder
And that's not good, because if China's economy crashes, it means that North Americans haven't been buying enough stuff from over there... which probably means the North American economies would have crashed even before!
helen.HH
To Light & Love ...
Maybe the Leica Retro glass has Peaked but the 'new' glass / asph will continue to Rise
I feel Lucky that i have played with, & owned Leica Glass
But Now have become a Zeissaholic ....
ADORE the Planar
And am cosidering the 35 biogon though 50mm could keep me Forever Occupied
I feel Lucky that i have played with, & owned Leica Glass
But Now have become a Zeissaholic ....
ADORE the Planar
And am cosidering the 35 biogon though 50mm could keep me Forever Occupied
back alley
IMAGES
get the c biogon 35...so very sweet.
or really treat yourself and get the rollei 40 sonnar!
or really treat yourself and get the rollei 40 sonnar!
helen.HH
To Light & Love ...
Too Bad We don't Live Closer ...i could borrow the 40 sonnar over a Latte 😎...oh well
Ronald M
Veteran
It will continue up up and away. Supply and demand makes it so and that is one law that is NEVER broken.
Leica is cleaning up on new lenses and they raise prices because they can. my 21 2.8 pre ASPH is goning for around $2000+. I paid $650 NEW in 198?.
So as the price of new goes up, so does the price of used.
Now you have the issue of new RF users finding the old film lenses are not up to snuff on M9 cameras . So there is some extra demand for new improved lenses.
Then there is the issue of the US dollar which is worth less and less every day. The Federal Reserve just keeps increasing the money supply with no increase in productivity.
Classic inflation by definition. Not political. Definition. Check Webster. In fact their stated goal is 2 or 3 % inflation. That way they pay off debts with cheap dollars and pay no interest along the way. This is political. Elections have consequences. Marx and Engles were proved wrong a long time ago.
Leica is cleaning up on new lenses and they raise prices because they can. my 21 2.8 pre ASPH is goning for around $2000+. I paid $650 NEW in 198?.
So as the price of new goes up, so does the price of used.
Now you have the issue of new RF users finding the old film lenses are not up to snuff on M9 cameras . So there is some extra demand for new improved lenses.
Then there is the issue of the US dollar which is worth less and less every day. The Federal Reserve just keeps increasing the money supply with no increase in productivity.
Classic inflation by definition. Not political. Definition. Check Webster. In fact their stated goal is 2 or 3 % inflation. That way they pay off debts with cheap dollars and pay no interest along the way. This is political. Elections have consequences. Marx and Engles were proved wrong a long time ago.
Tim Gray
Well-known
Not really. But you are free to believe whatever you want. Inflation isn't nearly as bad as you are making it out to be, particularly in light of how large the expansion in monetary base has been.
2% or so of inflation is usually viewed as a good thing. Things could get bad very quickly if our economy was held to 0% inflation. Of course, you will continue to go around believing what you want, because "Marx was proved wrong a long time ago." WTF does that have to do with anything?
dave lackey
Veteran
Well, for those of us on a fixed income, inflation is not necessarily a good thing.😉
There are a lot of folks in the U.S. that are hurting and inflation will only make it worse.
http://inmotion.magnumphotos.com/essay/hard-choices
Tim Gray
Well-known
Deflation would be worse.
And the point is that inflation is not currently tracking (or anything close) to the amount the monetary base has been expanded. The whole "The Fed is running the printing presses and making our dollars worthless" argument really doesn't hold a lot of water.
Cyriljay
Leica Like
That is so much better and I have 3 Summicron lenses ! Not a big deal!!
dave lackey
Veteran
Anyway, back to the OT. Lens prices will increase in general, some more than others. Even older lens prices can increase. New lenses are not even on my radar as I will never be able to afford new lenses. There are plenty of people in this world who can and will. And that is a good thing.
As prices of lenses go up, I have no choice except to look for older lenses. Not that I need anything other than my 50 on the M3, but....😛
Having said that, I remember a Ken Rockwell article on the III F. Seems that, according to KR, the III F sold for something like the equivalent of $3500 when it was new.... now it is worth, what, $350?
As prices of lenses go up, I have no choice except to look for older lenses. Not that I need anything other than my 50 on the M3, but....😛
Having said that, I remember a Ken Rockwell article on the III F. Seems that, according to KR, the III F sold for something like the equivalent of $3500 when it was new.... now it is worth, what, $350?
Chriscrawfordphoto
Real Men Shoot Film.
Your income isn't fixed, Social Security checks are adjusted yearly to accomodate inflation, which is better than many working people whose incomes truly are fixed because employers go years at a time now without giving raises of any kind. The problem with SS is that the amount given is pitiably inadequate to support a person. I know people on SS who get less each month than the rent on a basic apartment is for a month.
hipsterdufus
Photographer?
There are a lot of relative bargains in the Leica lens world. One thing that I've noticed on this forum is that some people have such specific tastes (focusing tab vs. no focusing tab, infinity lock vs. no infinity lock, LTM w/ M adapter vs. native M mount, speed vs. weight, Leica brand vs. non-Leica brand, etc.) that they ignore the bargains based on (what I consider) piddly little differences. Ah well, just more bargains for the rest of us who aren't quite as picky... Remember, last year's cheap "chromatic aberration king" lens is this year's expensive "most beautiful bokeh" lens.
rxmd
May contain traces of nut
Lenses are in a bubble.
There aren't enough digital M buyers to support the lens market as a whole because there are not enough digital Ms. The current lens market is driven by demand also from analog M buyers (= film users) and buyers of third-party EVIL cameras. The demand from the latter will become gradually less interesting as EVIL makers bring out more interesting dedicated system lenses, just like the market from SLR superwides has peaked (after the introduction of cheap APS-C DSLRs) and is now going down again (after the emergence of good superwide system lenses). Demand from film users will decrease as film becomes more difficult to obtain and process. All in all, demand will be kept up only by the few buyers of new digital Ms, and that market is being trickle-fed by Leica only.
There aren't enough digital M buyers to support the lens market as a whole because there are not enough digital Ms. The current lens market is driven by demand also from analog M buyers (= film users) and buyers of third-party EVIL cameras. The demand from the latter will become gradually less interesting as EVIL makers bring out more interesting dedicated system lenses, just like the market from SLR superwides has peaked (after the introduction of cheap APS-C DSLRs) and is now going down again (after the emergence of good superwide system lenses). Demand from film users will decrease as film becomes more difficult to obtain and process. All in all, demand will be kept up only by the few buyers of new digital Ms, and that market is being trickle-fed by Leica only.
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