have lens prices peaked?

Chriscrawfordphoto said:
Your income isn't fixed, Social Security checks are adjusted yearly to accomodate inflation, which is better than many working people whose incomes truly are fixed because employers go years at a time now without giving raises of any kind. The problem with SS is that the amount given is pitiably inadequate to support a person. I know people on SS who get less each month than the rent on a basic apartment is for a month.
Click to expand...

I agree. Technically, you are correct, Chris. Practically, it is fixed. If anyone else thinks a $30/month increase in Soc. Security benefits for the last year was a help, think again. It is nothing. It amounts to a PRACTICAL interpretation that it is truly a "fixed income". They should try living on an annual income of less than minimum wage. Vhris, your example of knowing people receiving pitiful amounts of money on the SS system is quite common and such a pity.

I have long ago left the world of academia and, subsequently, the professional life where one actually was able to earn a living. Things are so different now as a bottom-feeder where we hope to re-coup just a little of the money we paid into the government system for over 40 years.

Fuel costs have almost doubled for us. Food prices are up 50% here. Health insurance has gone up $1300 for the year, which I just paid. Medicines and co-pays are up 30-50%. The list goes on. That is real world, 😱 not macroeconomics. And it is much worse for so many other folks. Reference my link to the Magnum video.

My sister-in-law and her husband are in far worse shape. Apologies to the OP for being off topic.

So, back to the original topic. Lens prices peaked? In a word, no. Just my opinion. In more words, one needs to identify the period of time to check the prices...in six months? Five years? Only the Shadow knows and he isn't talking.😛
 
There has been increased demand for all types of photographic gear outside the traditional markets, and I don't believe that's going away any time soon. But the crazy hike in prices since '05 probably won't happen again. That was really a product of the digital m being so successful.

I think prices will moderate a little.
 
Cute story that many here know...

10 years ago, I paid $2000 for a mint M6 and $1000 for a mint 50/2.

Now, I would basically be switching those numbers around for the items!
 
Made me go check the price on my 1/1/2010 purchase of a mint M6 set containing, 35 summicron-M, 50 summicron-M and 90 elmarit-M... $4,500.

That's a lot of money to me in one batch, but two years later these have doubled in value.

I should put my M9 + three lenses in the garage sale thread, but... that was just luck.
 
I've always found the significant jump in prices in the last 7 years hard to fathom, because during the same period, for the first time, there has been M mount alternatives from other companies. Are Leica lenses that much better then ZM or Voigtlander?
 
Among other things, the upwards trend of vintage lens prices owes to the fact that the average private seller is much better informed these days. Less and less people sell their stuff without checking the going prices at ebay first and over the internet, almost anyone has access to foreign markets. Why sell your stuff to the local dealer when you can get twice as much from a chinese collector over ebay?

This means that the great garage sale bargain is, by and large, gone. And this means knowledgeable dealers don't have to worry about private sellers cutting them under.
Add a generous dose of internet hype and gear-related angst into the mix and you have a sellers' market.

That said, I think the prices are stabilizing now, at least with the larger dealers that can continually source Summicron-M's and the like.
 
One thing to watch for: Due to a lack of certain lenses in the market place, it may be hard for a random craigslist seller to get a good idea of the price. I was able to buy into P645 lenses after the run-up because the seller couldn't find any comps.
 
Perhaps we should make the distinction between real prices and nominal prices. Nominal prices also deal with inflation - which, depending on your political world view, may be stable or have a great deal of inflation in the future.

As for real prices - I predict it to go up as the demand increases due to increased compatibility with new digital cameras and an increased interest in photography in general. However, new technology may displace the need for old mount lenses, and therefore shift demand elsewhere, causing real prices to fall.

The argument in "no more being made" should be taken with a grain of salt. Lenses (for the most part) provide "utility". There are substitutes to the utility that a lens provides. For example, if another brand suddenly produces a much superior lens for much cheaper, a buyer may decide to spend their money instead on this new lens and not a vintage leica/zeiss/rollei lens and therefore the prices would drop. This would somewhat stabilize once the value proposition for the 2 lenses are somewhat equal.

Interestingly, the appearance of the C/V lenses did not cause a major drop in Leica M lens prices. There was probably a non-zero-sum effect going on, where the increased interest in cheap C/V lenses was a "gateway" to more expensive Leica lenses, thus expanding the demand for both.
 
In early 2009, I paid $880 for an EX condition pre-aspherical Elmarit-M 28mm E46, and $450 for an EX Summicron-M 50mm v.III (the six element one). If you recall, that was at the bottom of the recession and people were selling things to raise cash. Since then, we all know what happened to the economy and prices. People started feeling a little bit better about the future, and no longer felt they had to sell things at fire sale prices. In addition, the Asian economies started to take off, the M9 appeared and the 4/3 cameras. Brand-conscious consumers want what they and their peer group perceive to be "the best". People start losing faith in paper currency and bid up things they believe will go up in value, or at least maintain value. Combine all of the above and you have inflation in desirable lenses.
 
Sort of sluggish in the classifieds.
So very many late model/classic leica lenses, and Digital Bodies for sale lately.

Is the bubble full and ready to burst right now?
 
In 2005, I have bought:
- Elmarit-M 24/2.8 ASPH chrome version for $2,400.00,
- Summaron 35/2.8 M2/4 version for $500,
- Summicron 35/2 M2/4 V1 for $1,700.00,
- Summicron-M 35/2 ASPH chrome version for $1,100.00,
- Summilux-M 35/1.4 ASPH chrome version for $2,500.00,
- Summicron 50/2 with built in hood for $800.00;
- Summilux-M 50/1.4 pre-ASPH for $1,100.00,
- Noctilux-M 50/1.0 with built in hood for $1,650.00,
- Summilux-M 75/1.4 for $1,500.00,
- Tele-Elmarit "FAT" 90/2.8 black for $450.00,
- Elmarit-M 90/2.8 for $700.00,
- Summicron-M 90/2 E55 with built in hood for $750.00,
- Summicron-M 90/2 ASPH for $1,700.00.

All in like new/ mint condition with box, papers...
 
No worries, Frank. I didn't take your comment that way. I read it as more of a tongue-in-cheek commentary about how the M9M has debuted at the same time the economy is getting harder for folks.
In all reality if people are selling gear to fund gear, it's more likely to be for something like an X-Pro-1 these days.
Thanks for the encouragement!

Phil Forrest
 
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