Dear Gabriel,
Why will I need an M10?
If the M9 dies before or soon after the M10 does, you will. Repairing the M9
may yet be cheaper, but it depends on what component we're talking about. If it's the sensor, I doubt Kodak would crank an "old" one if a "new" one is already out on the market; best to hope for stock.
As much as we'd like to, the current electronics industry thrives on "buying new", and it has virtually no incentive to make things last in the same sense that, say, an M2 was built to last.
How will the M9 become obsolete?
There are many ways, and it is not exclusive to Leica:
1) DNG file support. Even though it's "open", Adobe owns the baby. If they go belly-up, along with the ACR infrastructure, that's it: it'll be a slow death. The whole reason for its existence, to have a file format that is not proprietary, ironically, would come full circle.
Files created with the first versions of DNG can be opened
right now, but they (Adobe) keep on accessorizing it with new features that are exploited by Lightroom, Photoshop, etc.
2) Microsoft and Apple seize to exist (natural disaster, sudden market crash, etc.): bye-bye support for the very thing you need to process the files (Nikon's, Canon's, Leica's, Panasonic's...)
3) Raw materials availability, prices, viability: the CCD for a specific camera has this weak point, as well as the long chain of companies tied to it (Kodak, Sony, Canon, Leica, Chinese government...it's a
veritable bordel).
Those are just few. It's a subset of the whole "digital vs. film archival" debate.
If I can't see an improvement is a double-page spread (and you won't, over 18 megapixels), then what will a newer camera do?
I did not discuss that, only the inherent short (or "not very long") lifespan of all things "digital". Within the context of buying "any" digital camera, never into M9 vs. M10.
Higher ISO would be nice, but not worth the money to me. That's about it. Leica promised 20 years support after the intro of the M9, and if I live long enough, I may well hold them to it.
Same. Again, my point was on the pseudo-pointlessness of "waiting" for "the next one" in the digital world.
The "digital" reality vs. the "mechanical/film" reality cannot be compared (yet). A different expectation for electronics (as of this writing) must be had when coming from an analog point of view. Shopping in 2011 is not the same as it was in 1980. Most corporations have sold their soul to Wall Street.
Regards.