Bill:
Warner Bros. and Sony aren't expected to be on board with the DCIP agreement by the time it's announced. But they likely also will agree to consortium VPFs before long, according to a source familiar with the studio discussions.
DCIP chief and exhibition vet Travis Reid was unavailable for comment. But it's broadly expected that DCIP will announce a deal with the first four major studios sometime before the October 13 start of the ShowEast convention of theater owners in Orlando, Florida.
One lingering concern sure to stimulate lots of talk at the conference is the question of how regional circuits and mom-and-pop exhibs will pay for their digital conversions. Some have suggested that smaller-fry exhibitors could be driven out of business unless they somehow manage to clamber onto the digital bandwagon...
...Regal, in the meantime, spent heavily to install more basic digital projectors to show commercials before feature presentations in its theaters.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE48S0SI20080929
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Yes, no doubt digital distribution is the future, and eventually they'll all be. Similarly, more and more films will be shot with RED ONE. That, imo, will happen before release prints cease. There's no huge conversion cost associated with that. The cost of a RED ONE camera is less than film stock, plus they can be leased, so I'm surprised they're all not shot with RED cameras. However, it's likely that film will exist side-by-side for some time. Ad rev is what's driving the larger chains, so there's you business incentive. (Yeah, I get to pay for a movie and also see ads! Remember the good ole days when they ran a Bugs Bunny cartoon? I hate watching ads before movies start.) Regal is interesting in that they stuck with film projection for now and bought "more basic" (cough...cheaper) digital projectors to run ads. Obviously, that chain wouldn't have stuck with film projection if they thought the conversion would be immediate. Clearly, they're banking on film being around a while: 5-10 years?, or they wouldn't have sunk money into a separate projection system for ads in their theaters.
I don't think: A. that Hollywood will simply concede the market/revenue stream from small markets and independents who can't afford cost per screen to convert... B. Digital has it all over film, at this point, in the actual filmmaking process. It just does. However, major productions have been very slow to adopt. Why? That $300,000 film processing cost is a huge obstacle to small productions. However, it's a drop in the bucket to a production, typical Hollywood, with a budget of 10's - 100's of millions of dollars. It's not worth it to them to experiment with new technologies when that piece of production costs is relativity negligible. And remember, this is a worldwide market. C. Also, cinematographers are used to working with film. They don't want to mess with their workflow and their expertise. Using the medium they have decades worth of experience in, they can get exactly the look they want using the medium they've got decades of experience in.
Will color film die? Of course. But that will likely take a decade. In the meantime, as you point out, film production = cash production. No R&D, fixed costs "paid for", no advertising costs. They do a job run, it sells, they make money. Cash cow. The top-end rev will continue to decline, no surprise.
Now... black and white film. Black and white shooters - a small part of the overall film market, is a different animal completely. Nobody who shoots black and white is dropping their 50 year old cameras because Panasonic just came out with a new micro 3/4th's system. No, this is a hobbyist, enthusiast, education, and fine arts market. Digital will likely drive consumers to black and white as folks go through their "black and white phase" - and some staying there. How big is that market? Dunno. But there is a fair number of suppliers and it coincides, not competes with digital or black and white would have died during the color film era. There are too many suppliers, I think, currently. There will be consolidation. One might be Kodak... but I think black and white will survive as far as the eye can see, ironically outliving color just like vinyl albums may very well outlive CD Roms.
