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A lot of what I write about is pretty self evident. Living on debt is a culture, and people seem not to think about the consequences.

Climate change is playing out. It did not take much understanding to see the future or the consequences.

It is not even science that water is growing to be a scarce commodity.

It is not really ignorance, but active ignoring. Pretty much delusional thinking. The list is endless…

There is a saying that you can’t have a Democracy if you don’t have an educated population, but it does seem like educated people are not thinking. Pretty much many do not use their intelligence nor their education. This is the world we live in.

I apologize if this comes off as judgemental, just driving a car is fraught because of not only bad judgement, but because so many people are not thinking.

This is mind boggling…

Cal
 
A thought came to mind that we are in a new period of the ”Dark Age” dispute vast literacy and living in “The Age of Information.”

Pretty much the Internet is a source of a lot of dated or bad information, and news media has been reduced to click bait and bombardment of spam via algorithms. No wonder or surprise that people are dumber, not thoughtful, and do mucho dumb things.

Then there is all this manipulation, fraud, and lying.

In school we were taught that the Renaissance and “The Age of Literacy” happened because of printing in Europe. Gutenberg was credited with inventing the printing press, so one spin is that one man changed the world, but a college professor in art school pointed out that in Medieval times sheep skins were used by monks to hand write books, and that it really was the development of the peasants using undergarments that we today call “underwear” that led to a strong supply of cotton rags that enabled books to be mass produced.

This spin credits the un-technical development of underwear and rags to support a paper industry as the reason why the Renaissance happened.

Basically without a supply of cheap paper the printing press alone would of just been an idea with no meaning.

Also know that In China they developed printing way earlier than the West. Gutenberg developed the printing press, but he did not invent printing.

So China at one time was very-very advanced, but today they do dumb things that are mucho dumb. I won’t repeat all the bad policy and ill-will they a sowed, reaped, and repeated. Mucho dumb.

Russians are great Chess players, and Chess is a big part of their culture, but look at the war in the Ukraine. Mucho dumb.

I will tell of one part of Chinese history that was hidden. Back in the 60’s China irraticated a common sparrow though an initiative/policy. Pretty much the idea was that the sparrows ate some of the grain harvest, and the intent was to increase farm yields. The tragic result was that locusts went unchecked and the result was a great famine that was kept secrete.

Many Chinese died of starvation. The west found out kinda after the fact. Pretty much this happened in the 60’s, and pretty much the Chinese kept it quiet as its people starved.

How dumb is that. Pure stupidity.

Cal
 
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1958-1962 marked the “Great Leap Forward;” (I was born in New York in 1958).

The Great Famine was from 1958-1961; estimates of deaths by starvation are 15-55 million; another estimate states 30 million.

Cited is that the famine was 30% natural and 70% man-made.

The program that killed off sparrows was labeled 4-Pests.

Bad policy in China continues…

BTW Ethnically I am Cantonese, Southern Chinese. This should not be confused with racism. My anti-China stance dates back decades to the cultural genocide and re-education camps (concentration camps) that happen in Tibet.

Making China a favored trade partner I knew decades ago was a mistake, and it made me angry. China is not the only country with bad policy that does mucho dumb things.

It was reported that local governments in China were not allowed to list “Starvation” as a cause of death.

Cal
 
I have some stock in a small domestic gold mine. Year-To-Date increase is over 100% in a statement that came in the mail today, and basically I doubled my money.

Truth be told though is I have owned this stock a very long time. Perhaps I should of sold it a long time ago and used the cash elsewhere, but today I’m glad I kept it as insurance. For a long period of time this stock languished and just went sideways.

So now you know why I track gold. One reason is greed, another is as a hedge in case things go south.

Cal
 
The problem is if things "go south" it will probably be too late for gold (or anything besides water, food, clothing, fuel) to be worth anything at all. Going "South" is a subjective, sliding scale, which means one thing to you today, and another when you are on the empty mark in your fuel tank, with 100 miles to go before finding relief from whatever. That's just one analogy.
Bethanne told me to ride my rare 1952 track bike because that is what it is made to do. My service manager friend said to do the same, but with more emphasis. If I built it just as a trophy of collection it is both worthless and a space liability. Treating the world and our things within it in the "scarcity model" just keeps us living as "preppers" either to survive a repeat of scarcity/trauma we have already experienced, or something we imagine; regardless, it is an existence of fear, when the entire financial system (in the context of gold) is based solely upon trust. There is no guarantee that if someone gives you $11 Billion, you are going to be able to use or spend a single dollar of it; the same goes for if you happened to privately own a Nimitz class aircraft carrier, you may not be able to sell it as easily as you could sell a glass of water. The entire system is based on a loose association of trust and perceived value, which is worth absolutely nothing in the end, if what you have to sell has no use to anyone. If you are thirsty or hungry, you want water and food; you may be sitting on a huge pile of pure gold but if everyone else is in the same situation, it's worthless.
I have a lot of memories, memorials, and thoughts on this twenty year 6 month long daily anniversary of my time in Iraq. I got to see first hand how people boil down everything of value to bullets, petrol, water, food, and shelter, nothing else had any real value to people without power. Protecting and feeding one's children can see a rich local merchant or politician go from a palace to a homeless scrappy, fighting person within a blink, just to fulfill that basic animal instinct of bloodline survival. Hopefully you actually see a return from the mine share investment, if the company decides to honor the trust. A better statement may be, "keep tending your garden in case things go south". Fertilizer and activated charcoal are some of the best investments a person could make, ever.
Phil
 
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Phil,

I pay mind to food, shelter, water, clothing, and also heat and cooling. As far as shoes go I have a 55 gallon tub plus surplus of footwear I got at DSW on sale or clearance. I also have stockpiled clothing. This is basic survival…

In the big picture worldwide is a debasement of paper money/currencies. Gold is a holdover as far as a store of value.

I divide our society here in the U.S. into two groups that is roughly divided 80/20. The 20% are the part of the population that have more resources than they need. They can save money, accumulate wealth and invest/speculate.

Then there is the 80% that live paycheck-to-paycheck and have debt. Perhaps maybe the only form of savings they have is possibly equity in their home, if they own a home. Remember that 2/3rds of the American population can’t afford to retire.

I see what you say as true for the 80%, but what if you are somehow in the 20%?

Things like gold and hard assets still have value to the 20%, granted a limited pool, but these are the same people who enjoy privilege and power and are the investment class.

My dad was an illegal immigrant, he was illiterate, and we knew poverty. I know how it is first hand to be a “have-not” but that is no longer true. Somehow I have become part of the “Protected-Class” an income level that provides security, privilege, status, and power.

Our retirement income already well exceeds the median household income here in Westchester. Then add in Maggie’s other assets and my full retirement that happens in a little more than three years.

Granted there is a mucho vast difference say between the top 10% and the 1%. Still I have to remind Maggie we are no longer poor.

It is interesting to note that “Maggie” is processing a lot of shame of having grown up poor. When I grew up if you were Chinese or an Asian in the U.S. pretty much society and culture labeled you as an immigrant, even if you were born here, and classified you as poor and many times as uneducated.

Because Maggie is white of course there were other assumptions, and since she was poor they were not accurate.

Maggie the other day asked why am so confident, and I went through a long list of evidence that I came from nothing and did what many-many people cannot do. I have been called “cocky” but my arrogance perhaps was earned, it is not entitlement.

Maggie had a difficulty sensing her own self worth, and I pointed out all the difficulties she lived through and overcame.

About 25% of white people here in the U.S. have a college education, only about 5% have a graduate degree, and about 1% have a PhD. Maggie has two Master’s Degrees plus a PhD.

Meanwhile I have a B.A., M.A, and a MFA. A PhD and a MFA are both “terminal degrees” meaning the highest level.

Just recently Maggie handled the crisis of the failed relocation of her daughter, her kids, and her husband. Pretty much shame, embarrassment and constantly having to strive to be accepted was very unbalanced in her mind.

We had the resources to rescue a family and help then get back into a good place.

If we look at what is happening today with Hurricane Milton you and I have to know that there are many people who lacked resources and had no place to go. Remember Katrina and New Orleans?

I do not discount what you wrote. I will also reinforce that for most people (80%) what you wrote applies, but then know that there is part of our society that will not suffer the same hardships or consequences when things go south.

Gold and diamonds allowed some people to escape Nazi Germany and going to death camps.

I don’t take this divide lightly.

Cal
 
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My high school friend Billy is about 4 1/2-5 miles inland just outside Tampa. I hope he left for safety.

Our nephew is attending college near Miami says he is safe.

“Maggie’s” three younger brothers survived the flooding near/outside Wilmington, North Carolina, but one brother suffered a mud slide erosion, and lost a 1 year old car that got flooded.

The west coast of FLA. looks like it will get terribly trashed.

Cal
 
In rereading through the above posts I have to appreciate the honesty of the scenario of going “Deep-South” where “South” goes or evolves into deep-south.

I have not experienced what Phil experienced, but I evidently have very serious survival skills that come from a tough upbringing that was fraught, dangerous, and traumatic. I should be dead many times, but now I am an old man.

Clearly life on the planet is becoming more difficult, environmental destruction continues, and as Phil speculates eventually there will be fighting for food and water, the immediate things you can’t survive so long without consequences.

Gold may or may not make any difference…

Sadly the prophetic Photoville of about a decade ago outlined the future: global warming led to famine; then civil wars; then a refugee crisis.

It was easy and dramatic connecting the dots: the beginning of the end already has begun.

Austin also has it right: “Growing food is printing money.”

China once was able to feed itself, but that is no longer the case. It dismantled that ability and decided that urbanizing was more important. There are uninhabited ghost cities of vacant buildings in China, the overbuilding and oversupply is that bad. Today China is a net importer of food.

Hungry children created Arab Spring. As outlined in other posts a strong U.S. dollar caused inflation to be exported because commodities like food are priced in dollars.

Sadly, food will be eventually weaponized.

My gold makes it possible to maybe have a buffer from inflation and maybe a bit less hunger.

Cal
 
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I filled up my Audi yesterday with Mobile Premium. I do not use cheap gas and I purposely pay the premium price for the detergent additives. I have fuel injection and a turbo.

Price was only $4.19 a gallon, very low for New York that has a high tax on gas. This price is remarkably low. BTW I patronize the same gas station almost always because it is local.

The U.S. has a good buildup in its oil stockpile. That is one reason why oil prices dipped before the Mid East war escalation.

Know that our trade deficit is down because of our energy exports, and pretty much Saudi Arabia has decided to end it’s production quota/curbs because the U.S. flooding/dumping has undermined and undercut OPEC and OPEC+.

The Almanac predicts a wet cold winter.

I just want to point out that energy costs are part of the reason why inflation is somewhat contained. Also be aware that energy prices are and can be very volatile.

Cal
 
My bursitis is getting better. Now it is my right hip that lags. The heating pad helps, and I try to limit my sitting.

Crossing my legs I have to avoid. After about 6 hours of sleep it seems being reclined aggravates my hip.
Playing the guitar using a strap and standing is not so natural for me. I have better technic, accuracy, and tone playing sitting.

Say for the past month I have been utilizing mostly downstrokes instead of the alternate picking that is generally taught.

Yesterday I learned that Charlie Christian used mostly downstrokes. I developed this independently, and it is mucho cool that I developed this on my own.

Vintage 47 makes a retro/modern version of a Gibson EH-185 amp which goes with an early single coil pickup that today is known as the Charlie Christian pickup. The amp and pickup has a distinct sound.

My friend Cris has a 15 inch archtop of mine that pretty much is getting overhauled. I’m thinking of having it refitted with a Charlie Christian pickup, and next year buying a Vintage 47 EH-185 amp.

Pretty much this is where I’m kinda heading.

Cal
 
Cal, I guess my point was that the trust in the gold mine investment is loose, in that you need to be a very attuned and shrewd speculator to know when to withdraw your share, because after a certain tipping point, that trust won't be honored. At best you get back what you put in, at worst, ("farther south") you get nothing. The problem with this is that there are many other folks thinking the same thing and that causes bank runs. The second phase in the beginning of early civilization, was the creation of currency, so individuals could specialize in a craft and trade wares for a portable symbol of trust in order to purchase other necessities. Many, many times in history, this trust has broken down on a local and national level. The way I see it, as a member of the 90%, is that we now live in a global currency, with each market enmeshed with all the others, some looser, some tighter. The trust we have for currency and commodities is so tenuous that it can be broken anytime. Compound this with the fact that the entire global economy is based upon and within debt. This is one of the reasons we must continue to support Ukraine, as the largest net exporter of grain in the eastern hemisphere. Ukraine can't simply be cut off from the world, the economic and humanitarian ripple would be more catastrophic than the current shortages caused by war. That's just one example internationally. Look at the central valley in California, where an incredible amount of produce is grown. Everyone knows there is less water now than in the past and there will be even less in the future, to the point that the valley will suffer a dust bowl without exceptional land use policy and foresight. What needs to happen is that all us hungry folks need to watch as farmer's fields are proactively returned to chaparral, with hearty, drought resistant, native plants, as it was before it was over-farmed. Not all the farm land, but a percentage, so the topsoil doesn't simply blow away and the water run off to the Pacific. With good policy, the water table could be stabilized, the soil could remain in place, the region could possibly even see a decrease in warming, and it could still be farmed, but on a smaller scale.
Anyway, if California fails, the US would follow, we don't need a foreign nation to fail, we can have a regional crisis and do it ourselves right here.
This is not a petition for isolationism, but one encouraging that the US stop living way beyond its means.
My point in the end is that when you say "going south" with respect to gold investment, you are meaning merely a recession, any farther and the trust will be broken. The formerly "protected" or insulated class will remember that they were only safe while trust was still in place.
Phil
 
Phil,

Thank you for your thoughtful response.

I am right with you on the insight about the Ukraine being a massive bread basket for a good part of the world.

I can’t disagree with anything you mentioned. California where we get half of our produce from is unsustainable. Desertification is underway.

I will say again that China is not the only place with bad policies.

You are correct about gold being like catching a falling knife. Not easy to do.

Cal
 
The entire system is based on a loose association of trust and perceived value, which is worth absolutely nothing in the end, if what you have to sell has no use to anyone. If you are thirsty or hungry, you want water and food; you may be sitting on a huge pile of pure gold but if everyone else is in the same situation, it's worthless.
Phil,
Many years ago while camping in the Catskills some friends and I had set up our little camp a way from a trail when 3 guys came staggering down the trail desperate for water, they suggested that we trade a quart of water for a quart of whisky, as we had plenty of water we happily accepted...
Joe
 
Up in Saratoga we met a woman who lived in the Catskills. She mentioned during the Pandemic that there were people setting up encampments in Catskill State Park and they created a mess. The State Parks Department had to seal off the access roads to contain the squatting.

There is a takeaway from this discussion: things work until they don’t. In today’s world most things don’t get done pro-actively to forestall inevitable crisis’s.

Pretty much we acknowledge that many tipping points lay a head.

I have an appointment today with the retired Navy SEAL Orthopedic MD. X-rays of both hips and my pelvis.

I guess I’m looking forward to see what some of my limitations are because of my aging. I also will kinda find out how worn out my body is. Pretty much a way to gauge my future.

New York Columbia Presbyterian pretty much extends here to Peekskill. I have world class healthcare.

Cal
 
Pure joy. The grandson is coming by for a few hours. I already roasted a chicken for him along with some yams.

I also got to talk with my friend Cris. I told hime that I need an archtop in my house, and inquired which of my guitars is further a long. The answer is that the guitar known as “RED” with the translucent finish that is getting overhauled is further along.

Then I inquired about upgrading the pickup to a Lollar Charlie Christian archtop pickup. Cris went to a parts draw, and in fact has one in a draw on hand already, and pretty much it is the color I would of ordered anyways. Divine intervention?

I bought this guitar right around 2004, but I had a problem with the truss rod. When I showed Cris the guitar he kinda went crazy and wanted to overhaul the complete guitar because it has uncommon features because it was a prototype of an early model.

Pretty much a different peg head, and the bridge, tailpiece, and pickguards today are all different.

Then I wanted to upgrade the fingerboard with these “Airplane” position markers. Know that my prototype had no position markers at all. I paid for the upgrade, and then Cris mentioned that he has this red Abalone that he has been saving.

So pretty much this repair turned into a new project, and pretty much a new neck already was made. Pretty much the only original part of the guitar is the body. I think Cris also wanted to replace the binding.

So it has been 5-years without this guitar. At this level of guitar building nothing happens fast. The other archtop guitar I ordered literally 20 years ago. How crazy is that? But I got a deal because I was paying things forward, and I helped my friend really establish himself as the next “Man” after John Monteleone.

The lineage goes like this: John D’Angelico; Jimmy D’Aquisto (John D’Angelico’s apprentice); John Monteleone: Cris Mirabella. These 4 men are the legacy of the best four arch top builders. Monteleone is an old man, and over two decades ago I discovered that Cris was being groomed to be the next man.

So pretty much I’m a patron of the arts who supported a friend.

I’m really excited to get this revamped modernized guitar back. Around Thanksgiving we will check in to se if Red is ready for paint. If so then I might have a new guitar in December.

Cal
 
MFM,

I’ll be 67 soon…

Pretty much when I get up in the morning I’m still tired. LOL.

Just got back from my Navy SEAL Orthopedic doctor. Pretty much Bursitis in my right hip. The left hip seems healed.

Had my range of motion checked. I thought I lost a lot of flexibility over the past 4 years. I kinda know I have because I have not been doing any stretching, and I use to be more flexible. Evidently I’m still more flexible than most.

I took the opportunity to ask point blank how worn is my body. He showed me the X-rays and indicated that I have mild arthritis in my hips and lower back. Pretty much he indicated that it is so small that it is of no concern.

I will get some physical therapy, if I want I could get a cortisone injection for instant relief.

Call it psyco-SAM-MAN-TIC, but now even my right hip feels significantly better.

I guess I’m a tough old geezer. Of course what was recommended was low impact exercise like biking, rowing, elliptical…

Anyways pretty great report. No real damage. Been 6 days since I did the heavy hands jog.

Cal
 
Wow, somehow a lot of Devine Intervention seems to be happening.

The cold temperatures are forcing “Maggie” to realize that the She-Shack (cedar shed) has been a sanctuary and creative space. The cold now is forcing her inside, and now she says she needs workspace.

So pretty much we are in the same boat. I could run an extension cord and buy a space heater, but that is a band aid fix and not really a permanent solution.

Building out a second level on the garage could be a solution, but for now we have three upstairs rooms of which two are kinda small. The second bedroom is my music studio.

So now we are both on the same page.

Hmmm…

The new revamped “RED” is an interesting development that seems to be timely and working out. Part of the deal is as Cris’s friend is that he can borrow my guitars to do guitar shows or for auditioning to get customers. I pointed out that Red with a Charlie Christian pickup surely will draw in players who will want to audition and hear the guitar.

Cris just had a customer place an order, he thought it would take 2 hours, but it took three. At this level of guitar building things take time. This is not factory production.

Kinda funny how everything ended up working out, and of course my ideas inspire Cris. He’s really excited about this idea, and he also see’s how it will draw a lot of interest. Pretty much a great guitar causes major GAS. The top of Red has been already beaten in, and the sound already has been opened.

Charlie Christian’s approach to playing was very horn like. He played hard to play an amp near saturation, but not heavily distorted. He played an edge, and that’s exactly where I want to be.

Things are evolving, I’m excited, and pretty much this is a lot of fun.

Very reassuring that my body has not been trashed.

Cal
 
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A 40 degree temperature right now. The house has the heat blasting for the first time this season. “Maggie” is sad that she cannot find sanctuary in her she-shack without some discomfort.

For a while the cedar shed went unused because of child day care, but for the past few months it gets used every day. It is a very lovely space, and of course smells good. A good portion of the roof is a skylight, so it is bright and airy. Pretty much the vibe is of being outside. I have this set up on a railroad gravel pad to avoid paying taxes, and the shed is nested and surrounded by trees.

There is a spectacular view set on a bluff about 30 feet high overlooking a valley and a distant hillside that is public land that contains a brook, a frog pond, and a marsh.

It by design is like a cocoon of sorts. Yesterday Maggie was distraught because of the colder weather, and pretty much panic set in. Today we are compelled to buy a space heater and I have to dig out another extension cord from the basement. I had to reassure Maggie that while not so energy efficient that an industrial space heater designed to heat an un insulated garage of 200 square feet would be able to make her 8x8, 64 square foot space comfortable easily.

The benefit for Calvin is that he gets the opportunity to play his loud acoustic guitars and is able to plug in and use his amps without “woman-factor” while enjoying the comfort of the Baby-Victorian. That Calvin is mighty clever. BTW she pays the electric bill…

The discomfort in my right hip is vastly diminished. I think I will forestall getting a cortisone injection because a turn or tipping point has happened. I inflamed my hips last Friday a week ago. I will undergo the physical therapy assigned.

I found it interesting yesterday the state of the art in X-ray technology. Pretty much they only need to dose you with a tiny amount of radiation, and it is highly targeted. Then there is this digital resolution and clarity. Pretty much revolutionary and mucho advanced. So much precision…

So I’m in my excited or dare I say aroused condition of getting “Red” back as a revamped Charlie Christian guitar. I’m daydreaming about how it might sound with the Vintage 47 VA-20 with a Cathodyne inverter that promotes a smooth “roll-over” in the top-end. The octal pre-amp also creates thickness and mucho warmth via abundant mids, so instead of playing a guitar it is more like playing a horn.

I had a 1952 tweed Fender Deluxe, and pretty much that amp made a Tele play as if a harmonica. No lie.

Pretty much like Maggie’s She-Shed I can get lost and escape into my own universe. How nice.

It seems likely that I will have to utilize machines to maintain my physical health: biking; rowing; and elliptical. I don’t see Maggie doing much with biking. Oh-well. The Yo Betty though is a rare bike and certainly is a trophy, but it is a damn shame it will go not utilized.

As MFM points out, we are old…

Cal
 
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There is a lot of follow through after cataract surgery. Pretty much because of sight we don’t fool around.

Maggie’s blue eyes assign all kinds of risks. Anyways this high-end eye doctor’s office is very thorough. I spent the 1 1/2 hours pacing a hallway rather than sitting which is bad for me. I figure I ended up walking a few miles. Likely good for my bursitis.

Because of risk factors they dilate her pupils and look for Macular Degeneration every few months. Also glaucoma is a risk because her optic nerves are not symmetrical. Just the heads up that maintaining your eyesight requires lots of doctor’s visits. Know that early glaucoma is treatable with drugs.

Moving forward I discovered that the volume control on the Vintage 47 amp actually somewhat works counterintuitively as a treble control. As you turn up the volume the sound actually thickens and gets fuller, but as you turn down the volume the response gets brighter.

Then this volume knob interacts with the single tone knob which too also works as a thickness control. Been experimenting with various Tele’s to learn where the sweet spot is for all the guitars and the amp. Everything is interactive.

Did the same for the Victoria Regal. The volume control not only adds gain, but also volume. A whole different approach. There are a bass and a treble control, and like the Fender amps that feature only two tone controls it is as if there is an imaginary knob for the mids that is set permanently at 6.

BB King uses Fender Twin, and he sets the knobs flat at 6-6-6. A Fender Twin is a burden pound combo amp with a treble, middle, and bass tone controls. 80 loud watts.

One Tele emulates a 50’s vintage version, and the clever 5-position pickup switch I use has a novel wiring that I personally developed. Pretty much I have the standard three Tele pickup selection in the middle three positions of the 5-way switch, but I have two mucho clever presets that are useful.

The fifth position bypasses the tone control on the neck pickup. Pretty much the tone circuit is removed for a brighter sound.

The first position has a bleed cap to chop off highs on the bridge pickup. This position too also removes the tone circuit. Pretty much the bleed cap provides the sound of a half cocked wah-wah peddle, a very cool and effective sound for lead playing.

A guitar player named Mick Ronson played with a cocked wah sound a lot. He was the guitar player for David Bowie during the Ziggy Stardust years. I kinda get the same effect without a floor pedal.

Today I learned that the value of my cap is too small for my cocked wah because I need to chop off more treble. Pretty much I need a larger cap. An EZ-PZ mod that I will do as soon as I’m done eating.

They say it takes about 40 hours of playing to break in a new speaker. I can expect the excess treble in the new amp to eventually get tamed over time. Maybe I’m about a quarter the ways there.

I’m obsessing over getting “Red” back as a Charlie Christian guitar. The pickup costs $275.00. Not so cheap. This guitar should kill. I think paired with the Vintage 47 VA-20 Red will be a killer. Know that Vintage 47 is kinda unknown.

I need a 100 foot extension cord to get 120 VAC to “Maggie’s” She-Shack from the garage. She is recycling a down comforter as a blanket to use outside in her shed.

Cal
 
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