NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Gold new Intra-Day High; $2938.10.

New higher highs suggest big inflationary pressures.

The FED at best will keep rates flat, but then again with inflation risk and elevation rate increases have to be considered. Not good for any government or household loaded with debt.

Let the pain begin. Hope you have a high threshold of pain. This is going to hurt a lot and for some it will be chronic pain.

It is not even noon yet.

My expected delivery of my custom guitar necks is delayed to 1:30-5:30 PM.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

In Trump’s first term when tariffs on steel and aluminum were first implemented, U.S. steel and aluminum producers did not use the opportunity to modernize or make upgrades that would of made U.S. heavy industry more competitive.

Understand that elsewhere countries did perform upgrades that gained economic efficiency, but now the spin is that foreign markets are “dumping” and hurting our domestic markets. Far from the truth. American producers gave away their competitiveness and are now whining about it and saying competition is not fair.

I’m tired of whining. Pretty much again a self inflicted wound.

Will the U.S. heavy industries invest and upgrade this time? Will the whining continue? Will the self inflicted wound continue bleeding?

I think the very real damage here is if the U.S. loses Canada a source of cheap aluminum. The U.S. directly benefits form a mucho cheap supply of aluminum that is made from mucho cheap hydro-electric power. The U.S. pretty much would lose a very low priced commodity that surely has higher prices if imported elsewhere.

So with the dollar being strong, and Gold being priced in dollars, it makes sense to me that it is not foreign banks that amped up the gold market today. What I’m suggesting is that dollar holders are buying gold and bidding up gold today. What really I’m saying is that American “Smart-Money” is responsible for this major jump in gold prices.

Does not discount that foreign Central Banks are also in the picture.

A projected 25% increase in gold pretty much states massive inflationary pressures and or big time chaos and instability.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold makes a new Intra-Day High of $2941.20.

Great news is the Hema-Pathology report came in. My old geezer hematologist told me I have an “Indolent” B-Cell Lymphoma that they identified, where indolent means slow growing. No treatment required and it basically is a watch and wait situation.

When I asked/inquired about my CAD being a form of a low level B-Cell Lymphoma, my hematologist agreed that pretty much the same. Then I asked if I need more careful monitoring that is more than twice a year, and the answer is no.

Also if treatment is ever needed it is the same mono-clonal antibody that is used to treat CAD.

Used the opportunity to get him to renew the prescription for the next month of Eliquis. The treatment is usually 3-6 months of this blood thinner, in April I already have an appointment, and at that time he will perform this blood test to see if I still have an active blood clot.

So no bad news, and all good. The B-cell Lymphoma I have is slow growing and is related to my CAD.

Early in March I go back to my urologist/surgeon for a checkup and a PSA test. Should be a zero. Now is another careful monitoring for any PSA level other than a zero.

Pretty much when the aggressive Cancer attempts to make a comeback, it will get dosed with targeted radiation and hormone treatment both at the same time. This pretty much is the cleanup part of the operation.

I got the custom neck deliveries. They are opulent and boldly pretty. Along with the custom colored bodies they have the “Guppy with the long orange tail” sex appeal. With guppies and also human sexuality, females are drawn to the male that stands out. In a tank full of guppies all the females will ignore all the other males, and only mate with the one that is the fanciest.

In life I found this to be true in my case. I boldly stand out in a crowd, and pretty much have experienced females competing for my attention. These loud looking guitars add to my persona. LOL.

The faded Sonic Blue Tele Thinline is a kinda light baby blue, and then it has this flashy gold anodized aluminum pickguard. Kinda stunning looking.

The custom necks I ordered feature roasted maple which takes on an amber coloring. The roasting is a form of Torification where moisture is driven off, and resins in the wood kinda solidify into a more structural composite. Not too far from petrifaction.

I learned on U-tube that pretty much trying to refret a roasted maple neck is very difficult, if not impossible, because of chipping and splintering.

I got a warning to oversized pilot holes for screws are needed to avoid splitting and chipping. Pretty much the wood becomes more like a composite and is structurally stronger, but also brittle.

On the Strat a setback. The custom tuners are defective, The threaded bushings are oversized and do not engage with the body of the tuner. I removed a threaded bushing from another guitar that uses these Sperzel tuners and they too are oversized.

So I determined that the threads on the body of the tuner are undersized. I sent two E-mails and I called twice with no-reply.

This is a small boutique company and they manufacture here in the USA. Disappointed, but they will make good on this.

So another good day.

Tomorrow I will likely try to string up the Tele Thinline. I have to shave a bone nut blank to fit a 1/8th inch slot, and then cut the string slots. Then a complete set up and intonation.

I’ll see if the frets need any dressing or leveling. The last neck played perfect out of the box. Pretty much the roasted maple is very stable, so the frets have the potential to be perfect right out of the box.

I ordered these two necks with rosewood fingerboards. Should not have any problems regretting these necks, but the one with a maple fingerboard likely will be a disposable neck, or I could have Cris install a new fingerboard to salvage the neck. Oh-well. Live and learn…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A bargain/discounted baritone neck was just posted.

Birds eye roasted maple. I ended up ordering it with stainless steel frets that pretty much are one-and done because they wear like iron.

9-14 inch radius is an option I wanted. The fingerboard inlays are upgraded turquoise that are kinda a free bonus.

A kinda funky reverse Strat headstock.

Couldn’t resist…

Oh-well. I watched a video where you can fit a Strat heel on a Tele, so no problem. I can build up the 1 piece body one day. Sometimes it helps to just wait and lurk

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold set new Intra-Day High of $2968.50, but pretty much today a red screen presently.

A headline suggests a lack of response yesterday to the tariff announcements was due to market fatigue, but today there is mention of conditions leading to and promoting stagflation.

I see an economic slowdown happening.

One month post-surgery means I can resume normal activities, the only exclusion is no biking until 6-weeks post surgery. Pretty much I get my life back in 4 more days.

I feel rested up, almost like I have experienced a vacation.

I think I likely am about 157 pounds. No weight gain, but no loss either. I was concerned about gaining weight…

The neck I bought last night to create a baritone guitar I think will be a good tool for voice training. My thought today is to go full blown baritone with a lower tuning. I have a deep voice, and also I don’t play much above the 15th fret on a guitar. It will be an interesting exploration.

The roasted bird’s eye maple is kinda stunning looking, and roasted maple does not require any finish. I have grown to love the feel of naked wood on a neck.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A “Red” screen and higher oil prices. Gold is also trading lower, even though it made a higher high today…

I called Sperzel about my tuner problem. They are sending me some nickel bushings and washers that might work and eliminate the problem that have a smaller I.D. If this does not solve the problem then I was directed to call them.

Seems with my custom order that the contractor that did the red anodizing likely stripped a bad anodize, perhaps even a few times. Chemical etching actually micro machined things smaller, and we believe this is the reason why there is a gross size difference between the tuner body and the threaded bushings.

The threaded bushings I have are chrome plated, but the replacement set will be nickel for a more retro look. I love it. Now I have some brand new spare parts. Oh-well.

I know the grandson will kinda go nuts with the two visually loud custom color guitars I’m building out: a Strat; and a Tele Thinline.

He is not even 3 years old yet, and it seems like he will be a guitar player. Julian Lage was a child prodigy that started playing guitar at the age of 5, and by the time he was 8 he was playing out. This is a great Jazz player.

One of the grandson’s nicknames I call him is “Ham” because pretty much he loves being in the spotlight and demands full attention all the time. BTW he is a good dancer, and is mighty good looking.

Both his parents are short, but I think he will be a big boy and possibly a brute. It seems like either he is a lefty or ambidextrous. Highly intelligent and advanced, but evidently some serious speech delay.

I expect the baritone with its longer scale to have a more piano sound. So now my thinking is go standard tuning E-E. The added 3 1/8 inch additional string length will add some string tension, but that can be mitigated by utilizing the top-loading feature I have in the Callahan Bigsby bridges I ordered and installed.

If I can use 12-52, pretty much this is a guage of strings that is in the realm of acoustic guitar strings, but on an electric, and also with added string tension for a more percussive sound.

Pretty much this is some original territory for me to explore and compliments my vocal range. I have a baritone voice that extends into the bass. Kinda funny on a thin skinny guy. Not what you would expect. While my higher register is limited, I can go deep.

Hmmm… Lots of creative exploration and possibility happening here… The baritone also promotes a slower playing, an extend range and a 24 fret neck.

Let’s see if this gets traction and becomes a style for me and a notoriety. Has great potential and suits me well. Very different.

I learned from “Maggie” that if you want to stand out, don’t do what everyone else is doing. A powerful lesson…

Who knows where this is going? Could be great, or it could really suck.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

When you expand the gold chart out and you get to the expanded three-year chart, pretty much you see the bullish pattern of a “cup with a handle, followed by a breakout.”

Pretty much in technical analysis a very bullish chart that suggests some serious price growth potential for gold in the future.

That $4K target for 2026 for gold looks to be not out of the realm of possibility, but also that kinda suggests a lot of political and financial instability as well as big inflation.

A kinda brutal outlook for sure.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I watched a recent Peter Zeihan podcast on the housing market.

One point is that the Donald in his first term doubled the Federal Deficit, the Biden also contributed also to enlarge the deficit further, and now with the Donald’s second term certainly the Federal Deficit will grow even more.

So interest rates and inflation are a serious problem. This I know, and pretty much Peter cites failed economies like Argentina.

Then the next point is that the baby boomers went from net spenders to net savers after they attained the age of 45 or so. They went from being consumers to being net savers that deeply effected the credit markets. About 2/3rds of the boomers are now retired, and they are now spending their savings, so the credit market has been impacted and dramatically changed.

Then the availability of baby-boomer homes are hitting the market. Many boomers aged in place and now the older boomers are dying off. Their old homes are softening the markets…

So another point is that Las Vegas is different than Boston, meaning that housing markets are local…

So demographics are effecting the housing supply on one hand, and on the other hand it is credit, deficit spending, and economic policy having an effect on housing.

All I know is that real estate is a hedge against inflation. Mighty glad that I’m a home owner. I am retired, but pretty much on the cusp of the last third of the baby boomers. Realize that technically I have been retired since the age of 62 and was lucky to be able to retire early.

Thanks to Austin for that link tat introduced me to Peter…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I wonder about diets effect on memory and cognitive ability.

I grew up poor, so I know about poor diet. They say sugar and too many carbs can effect memory, and this in turn cognitive reasoning.

I see shorter attention spans. Part of this is the Internet, cell phone abuse, and a new evolving culture, but I wonder how much of it is being promoted by poor diet, and along with that a lack of exercise.

Pumping blood to the brain is also important, but in today’s world the masses seem to need distractions and to be overly stimulated.

So I’m seeing and witnessing a different kind of pandemic happening, and I wonder if I am somewhat immune to what is going on. I see a lot of imbalance going on, but others are too busy and overly occupied to take notice.

Whatever happened to having a balance and fulfilling life? Suicide is up for a reason…

Just a thought. I see myself separate from what is going on in my surroundings.

Also I want to acknowledge that yesterday’s great news reduced concerns and worry. I feel a great relief.

Cal

 

[Prest_400]

Good that the news are encouraging and your ban on biking lifts soon. However it would be a nicer "vacation" if you were not sick!

So I’m seeing and witnessing a different kind of pandemic happening, and I wonder if I am somewhat immune to what is going on. I see a lot of imbalance going on, but others are too busy and overly occupied to take notice.

Whatever happened to having a balance and fulfilling life? Suicide is up for a reason…

Just a thought. I see myself separate from what is going on in my surroundings.

Also I want to acknowledge that yesterday’s great news reduced concerns and worry. I feel a great relief.

Cal

I recall an interaction we had during the "death march" with a construction worker in Brooklyn, about nobody even remembering phone numbers anymore.
I tend to say that somehow despite being a Millenial, I went in late to the internet and smartphone party but somehow I feel like having different mental "wiring" due to that. I don't quite know how to express it in writing, but overall it is some great irony.

 

[Calzone]

Jorde,

You feel it too.

Anyways, it is good not to get swept into this. People here in the U.S. seem “distracted” and you see how people are not thinking anymore even in their driving.

Counterintuitively cars are safer than ever, yet highway mortality is up.

People are not thinking, and I would go as far as to say unable to think at all. Mighty crazy.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

According to Michigan University inflation was 2.7% and is now 2.9%, but the ringer is that inflation is expected to increase to 4.3% in the next 12 months.

Certainly this will make it difficult for the FED to lower rates, unless employment tanks badly, very badly.

Meta announced 3600 layoffs, and there are reports that recent MBA grads are not getting hired.

So inflation never got killed and now it looks to get entrenched. The FED can’t really kill the economy to reset it either by raising rates either.

I have to call Fidelity. They administer my Grumman Pension that I don’t need now. From when I last checked I don’t have to begin collecting until I’m 72. Pretty much overfunded and includes cost of living increases. Anyways I want to know the numbers.

The longer I wait, the bigger the payout. Have to figure out what side of 82 is my lifespan. If more than 82 it pays to collect later, but conversely if I die before 82, best to collect early.

I still favor living beyond 82 because I’m stubborn. Also compared to most Americans I am health, even though I’m living with a low grade Cancer and had an aggressive prostate Cancer.

All this math is a statistical table that Social Security uses where the mean life expectancy is 82 years. That number is no longer accurate anymore since the pandemic, suicide rate, Oxicodon deaths and rising infant mortality her in the U.S. is lowere into the upper 70 range.

Then I have my theory of how preventative health care and screenings got sidelined for 3 years that will have consequences.

“Show me the money,” I say.

My friend Andrew has been reading about CAD. We joked how the cure is “Avoid the cold.” LOL.

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

I have to call Fidelity. They administer my Grumman Pension that I don’t need now. From when I last checked I don’t have to begin collecting until I’m 72. Pretty much overfunded and includes cost of living increases. Anyways I want to know the numbers.

If this is a 401K, you don't have to begin making minimum withdrawals until age 73. I believe this is a fairly recent change by the IRS, up from age 72. My 401K is with Fidelity as well, and I'll be 73 in five days, so I've been sure to have my ducks in a row!

 

[Calzone]

It was painless getting to my Grumman Pension. Had to be on hold for only 5 minutes, and pretty much I could pick 3 possible timelines for the calculations.

I chose age 68 which is next January; age 70, and age 72.

Some new law allows me to push the date out to April 15th following my 73rd birthday.

So it will take about 2 weeks for an actuary to calculate all this, and since I’m an old geezer perhaps a week to get a hard copy via snail-mail.

No decision or commitment. This is “Show me the money” so I can plan things out.

I also gave out “Maggie’s” birthday. Pretty much the plan “B” would be a reduced benefit, but one that would continue if I pass. Maggie would get my reduced benefit and inherit my Grumman Pension.

I worked there for 17 years. One part is a Grumman Pension, and there is a Northrop Grumman pension also.

I figure with 68, 70 and 72 I get enough of a spread to see how the numbers work. Then we can figure out and plan out a future.

I don’t plan on collecting my Social Security until I’m 70. Somehow the crazy math makes it that my full retirement with 2 pensions and Social Security is pretty close to my full time paycheck at the end of my career, or might even exceed my annual salary at its peak.

Delayed gratification.

Also I pretty much banked about a third of my salary, while living in Madhattan, and doing crazy things like shooting Leicas and spending big money on printing supplies.

So finally a big pay off for living below my means.

The future austerity that lays ahead I’m cool with. I have enough stockpiled treasures that I don’t really need more. I’m living on one pension currently and savings. The next almost 3 years before I’m 70 means my savings have to stretch over these almost three years. A tough challenge, but I think I can do it.

Pretty much this enforces and promotes a “No-Buy” mode which to me is a moral commitment. It is also a regard to my freedom and what I value. Kinda funny how all this lined up.

So things are looking good for Maggie and me…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

RG,

I’m currently tapping my 403B. I used a tax calculator at WWW.SmartAsset.com and figured out that not only did I have a bridge to early retirement, but also to evade getting taxed mucho heavily it would be better to take the money early.

This was tax deferred money, so it pays to pay the taxes while my income is lower.

Understand that everyone is different, and in my case my retirement income when I’m 70 or 72 has the potential to be more than my full time salary at it’s peak.

How crazy is that? I figured out how the actuary tables work, and pretty much my delayed gratification pays dividends. I actually will have a crazy retirement income because I’m mighty clever.

It also pays to have a boring day job, Internet access, to kinda work unsupervised, and have the time to waste at work to figure out a real retirement plan.

Smart Asset has a tax calculator that makes it EZ-PZ to make your own spread sheet. Also I discovered the New York can be a wonderful place to retire, especially if you are a government employee. Pretty much if a government employee your entire pension is tax deferred.

In my case with two private pensions I get a $20K tax exemption. Also Social Security is not taxed.

There is no escaping the FED unless you are an Oligarch who lives only 3 months in any given country.

Of course there are other benefits like world class healthcare.

I figured all this out before the Hudson Valley was outed as a great place to retire that happen just after the Pandemic.

When I’m 70 or 72 I’ll kinda have about a third of my income that I don’t need, so I will save and invest. Part of this is our expenses are mucho low. Not a big mortgage, and also at an interest rate below 3%. I figure around age 69 my student loan will get paid off, then pretty much the cheap mortgage is the only debt.

Probably will set up college funds for the grand kids. Likely will have a trust fund for them also. We have more than we need. Happy-happy.

Also be aware to understand the RMD. The penalty is a 50% loss on your money.

Be careful the government doesn’t take your hard earned money.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The sonic blue Tele Thinline is strung up and set up. Acoustically mucho loud and plugged into an amp speaks with authority with a big midrange. The treble is a bit curbed when the alder is compared to my swamp ash thin line.

A very open sound, and there seems to be this large amount of “swell” to the decay of notes and chords. Also seems like the chords are more organ like sounding together rather than piano like that seems to have greater note separation. Notes on the alder body seem more slurred together.

Interest and inspiring. Kinda like having two different girlfriends…

As I suspected the roasted maple plays well without need of any fret leveling. I love it…

I have to remove the strings and trim of the nut, or can just play the guitar as is and do this cosmetic neatening when I change strings sometime in the future.

Call me vain, but this is a very pretty guitar, and like a new girl friend I dig it.

The day is grey and gloomy. I think there is a hint that there was a dusting of snow. Meanwhile another oil delivery…

Today I will get rid of some evil Ginzo fret ends on the DeMarino. I have this black graphite nut material that is self lubricating. The current nut is too low, and needs to be replaced. The Bigsby vibrato I installed I hope stays in tune better, otherwise I need Cris to revamp the neck with a new fingerboard with a 9 inch radius and add a LSR roller nut with less friction.

I go slow motion, perhaps old man mode, doing easy jobs over long periods of time. Absolutely no rush. I listen to music, am more in the moment, feeling a sense of peace. Pretty much that relaxed. As Andrew says, “In retirement, every day is a Saturday…”

Perhaps for me it is a step further and every day is a Sunday. I love my peaceful and boring life.

Maybe today I’ll plug in the new Thinline and tweak it some more. I have a Fender low output 49 No Caster pickup in the neck. It is a bright and lively pickup that seems ideal with the Alder body, and the roasted maple adds some crispness and articulation.

The neck pickup is a Fralin Blues Special, slightly overwound or more midrange and output over a vintage pickup, but I tend to raise a Tele neck pickup close to the strings to maximize treble and articulation. In this case the slightly boosted output balances well for my style of playing.

In a ways I setup and use a neck pickup for a throaty lead which is kinda my vocal range. I can see playing and singing in unison going pretty far, and like maybe like a piano I can sing the bass (left hand) and use the guitar to play the right hand parts.

A huge bonus is the middle switch position where both the neck and bridge are used together. Out of all my Teles this Thinline has the best middle position sound. Brutal.

Then there seems to have a very wonderful resonance in the attack that is lively and present.

I only played a little bit last night, mostly to check if the pickups were in phase or not. Luck me they are. Even acoustically this guitar sings. A very vocal quality…

A finishing touch is this open cover I installed over the Tele neck pickup that shows the naked black bobbin through an open top.. Looks mucho evil, but I need to add a ground to the cover so it acts like a noise shield. I can do this when I change strings…

I have a harem of Tele’s now, and the grandson will go bonkers over this new Thinline.

In another day or so I should be getting those new threaded barrel replacements. Hope they solve the problem. Another sexy guitar that is a mucho loud red. The Callahan bridge with a steel base plate makes this Strat a bit of a porker. The Sperzel tuners along with the CBS enlarged headstock also add some weight.

The Baritone neck has a Strat reverse headstock and would be mighty evil on this strat. Then again it would be crazy good on that 1-piece alder body I secure at a bargain price.

I got the Arizona Turquoise neck inlays kinda for free as well as the 9-14 radius that is an optional upgrade, and also bonus bird’s eye figure. Pretty much a bargain and a no brainer.

The longer scale length is a challenge, and will advance my playing on a standard 25 1/2 in ch scale. Likely will also aid in developing my vocal training.

“Don’t tell Maggie,” but I’m in love.

I’m no Jeff Beck, but I do favor brightness. If you watch JB perform basically he plays almost exclusively the bridge pickup when he plays a Strat or a Tele (In the Yardbird years he played a Fender Esquire which is basically a Tele with only the bridge pickup).

So I can get a fat Jazz sound out of my hands using a Tele bridge pickup, while many Jazz players who use Teles favor the Tele’s neck pickup. Perhaps Julian Lage whould be the exception who plays a 1958 Tele using either the bridge pickup or bridge and neck together. Pretty much he never uses the neck pickup alone.

Unlike other players though, I use a heavy attack. Pretty much my style is to play an electric guitar with heavy gauge strings as if it is an acoustic guitar and perhaps like Charlie Christian hitting the strings hard to project in an orchestra setting using mucho downstrokes for power.

Anyways, I’m doing my own thing, and my own style is emerging. The heavy gauge strings is a big part of my sound. Also I get the dynamics I want from my hands. I have my own sound…

This new blue Alder Thinline kinda favors JL’s style. This particular guitar favors the bridge and bridge and neck together positions. Hmmm.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Inflation is 3.5% excluding food and energy costs.

The FED knows better than lowering interest rates because that would further accelerate inflation.

Basically Trump wants to add fuel to the inflation fire to offset the price increases imposed by his tariffs.

Looks like a red screen today as the markets see where bad policy is leading us.

Pretty much a mucho slow insane approach to likely highly probable bad outcomes: high interest rates; likely no rate cuts; an impending economic slowdown; higher unemployment; higher deficits; higher prices; a squeeze on consumption; and unintended consequences and uncertainty.

Sooner or later a panic will set in. Pretty much bad policy is steam rolling as our economy certainly is being thrown under the bus.

Pretty much we are emulating as much bad policy as China, and they have a ruined stagnant economy that is suffering a deflationary collapse.

Anyways the wake-up in the markets will be evil.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

BTW this inflation report is for January. Pretty much inflation without the Orange hot spice of the effects of tariffs.

Add fuel (tariffs) and now we have an inflation bon-fire.

I can see the Orange man and the Co-President (Musk) dancing to “Disco Inferno.”

So expect inflation to really accelerate…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Elevated expectations of inflation pretty much reinforces a strong dollar because the markets predict the FED will have to maintain high interest rates, or maybe have to even favor or embrace higher interest rates.

See how inflation will induce a slowdown?

Understand the slowdown fro said tariffs have not really impacted the economy yet. Just like how interest rates take a while to filter into the economy, the impact of the tariffs have not been felt yet.

The trap-door will open…

“Look out below,” I say…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The DeMarino dates back to 1995, so today it is a 30 year old guitar.

The wood in the neck shrunk enough to make the fret ends jut out to create Ginzo frets, little knifes to cut your hands.

So I took a file and remedied that issue, and while I was at it I polished the frets. Then I made a new nut, but now I discovered that the frets need a leveling.

The graphite nut stabilized the tuning. It is self lubricating and took some careful attention to form nut slots that are low friction and pretty much have limited contact with the strings. I’m glad this worked out. The Bigsby now is a cool asset

So more work…

Know that this guitar languished in my basement for nearly 5 years unplayed, but soon it will be a treasure. Will need a fret level and dressing, then another setup. A problem is I ran out of strings that have a plain “G” string. Have to order a bunch.

Cal