larmarv916
Well-known
speaking on a professional level...The currency issues are going to get much worse for Dollar and Sterling. The current G20 "pinheads" are publicly talking about wiping out the FOREX trading markets as we know them ! They will decide what currency's should be valued and lock in "one exchange rate" and they will let you know what your money is worth. Sterling is now in process of failing and is reacting to this G20 "BS" and as such Brown is willing to kill the Sterling for the benefit of his EU friends. So Parity between the EURO and Sterling is a soon to be seen as reality.
The US Dollar is being slain by Washington to advance the political adjenda of the currrent adminstration..so americans wont be able to buy any luxury or Euro based products as a way to stop the trade deficit...bad idea. Infiation is the missguided savior of economice problems.
So in the end...down the road Obama has killed the dollar, G20 has given China control to dictate the value of Euro, Sterling, & US Dollar. This actual idea is actaully published and suggested by Mudell ( father of Euro concept) and US Tres. Sec. , PM Brown and IMF...as publshed in the NY TIMES !
So by your M9 now as it will only get grossly more expensive for US, UK and JAPAN markets. OBAMA and the EU want to wipe out the US Dollar and they are doing it right now. SAD...and Fact.
The US Dollar is being slain by Washington to advance the political adjenda of the currrent adminstration..so americans wont be able to buy any luxury or Euro based products as a way to stop the trade deficit...bad idea. Infiation is the missguided savior of economice problems.
So in the end...down the road Obama has killed the dollar, G20 has given China control to dictate the value of Euro, Sterling, & US Dollar. This actual idea is actaully published and suggested by Mudell ( father of Euro concept) and US Tres. Sec. , PM Brown and IMF...as publshed in the NY TIMES !
So by your M9 now as it will only get grossly more expensive for US, UK and JAPAN markets. OBAMA and the EU want to wipe out the US Dollar and they are doing it right now. SAD...and Fact.
Thardy
Veteran
sirius
Well-known
Leica should come back to Canada. We like-eh!?
larmarv916
Well-known
The Currency War's effects are tangible..one small example. GBP/EUR exchange rate in OCT 2000 was 1.73, moving ever closer and down every year in between and in Jan 16, 2007 ( high 07) 1.52 GBP/EUR. Then Dec 30, 2008 1.02, now after all efforts to push GBP up, in the last 90 days failing again from 1.1869 down to todays close of 1.08 !
Brown came out yesterday stating at G20 a soft Pound is OK with him! So that means now that the long term cost of ALL goods to UK will be higher for no other reason than currency depreciation to please his EU friends. The fun is just getting started!
The best currency to own now is AUD ! It is eating the USD, Sterling, and Euro Dollar. GBP/AUD was at 2.66 in Oct 08...now today GBP is down to 1.83 ! Trends do not lie !! dont spit out our juice !
Brown came out yesterday stating at G20 a soft Pound is OK with him! So that means now that the long term cost of ALL goods to UK will be higher for no other reason than currency depreciation to please his EU friends. The fun is just getting started!
The best currency to own now is AUD ! It is eating the USD, Sterling, and Euro Dollar. GBP/AUD was at 2.66 in Oct 08...now today GBP is down to 1.83 ! Trends do not lie !! dont spit out our juice !
John Camp
Well-known
For a lot of reasons, including (but not only because of) careerism, corruption and also genuine need, the US government has been so spendthrift over the past twenty years that a dollar collapse appeared inevitable, even several years ago. The trends have gotten worse, not better. The proposed health care reform will make that much, much worse. (I'm not against health care reform, but there are two aspects to it -- the health part and the economic part. The economics invite disaster.)
There is considerable schadenfreude floating around the various international camera forums, concerning this, but it's not the US that will be hurt worst - it's probably Europe. Chinese goods are manufactured so cheaply that they will be affordable in the US no matter what happens, and of course, American-manufactured stuff, for internal consumption, will see little change. Not so, many European products, and in some of the most critical European industries. Most European cars will be laughably unaffordable. Right now, a Mercedes S class sells for ~$100,000 with a modest level of options, and by American standards, it's overpriced, but often bought anyway because of the "prestige" attached. If the dollar collapses, and an S-CLass costs $200,000, well, Germany better hope bigger markets open up in China, India and Russia, because Americans won't buy them. Same with Porsches. Products like American wine, which are as good as French wines across the range, will remain very low, while French wines could double in price. Leica cameras will essentially disappear from America -- $7,000 for an M9 is a lot. $10,000 for a Nocti is even more. But at $14,000 and $20,000, they just won't be sold. If the dollar collapses, I suspect we'll see some limited effects here, some of which will actually be good for the US -- lots of European tourism, for example, because things will be so cheap in euro terms, and America export prospects should be excellent -- but there will quite possibly be a long and deep recession or depression in Europe, that could go on for several years.
It's not fair, but that's why many governments (like the UK's) don't mind having a currency that's a little softer than their neighbors'. The soft currency country is a con man; it's the hard currency people who are the chumps.
JC
There is considerable schadenfreude floating around the various international camera forums, concerning this, but it's not the US that will be hurt worst - it's probably Europe. Chinese goods are manufactured so cheaply that they will be affordable in the US no matter what happens, and of course, American-manufactured stuff, for internal consumption, will see little change. Not so, many European products, and in some of the most critical European industries. Most European cars will be laughably unaffordable. Right now, a Mercedes S class sells for ~$100,000 with a modest level of options, and by American standards, it's overpriced, but often bought anyway because of the "prestige" attached. If the dollar collapses, and an S-CLass costs $200,000, well, Germany better hope bigger markets open up in China, India and Russia, because Americans won't buy them. Same with Porsches. Products like American wine, which are as good as French wines across the range, will remain very low, while French wines could double in price. Leica cameras will essentially disappear from America -- $7,000 for an M9 is a lot. $10,000 for a Nocti is even more. But at $14,000 and $20,000, they just won't be sold. If the dollar collapses, I suspect we'll see some limited effects here, some of which will actually be good for the US -- lots of European tourism, for example, because things will be so cheap in euro terms, and America export prospects should be excellent -- but there will quite possibly be a long and deep recession or depression in Europe, that could go on for several years.
It's not fair, but that's why many governments (like the UK's) don't mind having a currency that's a little softer than their neighbors'. The soft currency country is a con man; it's the hard currency people who are the chumps.
JC
Richard Marks
Rexel
My point is simple
I am prepared to belive that you have at least in the past had something to say about photography but do not feel this is the appropriate place for extreemist political views. Apparently I am not the only one.
Photography for the majority of users of this site is a leisure pursuit a creative process and perhaps even an escape from political issues.
Best wishes
Richard
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Richard,
What have I said that is extremist? The thread began with a discussion of M9 prices, which are rooted in exchange rates as well as the world economy.
There are those who say that the US will collapse. I do not think they are right, though the dollar is certainly very, very weak at the moment. Check my orginal post: I said that I believe it to be grievously undervalued. America-bashing? Hardly.
I suspect that China will collapse, on the basis of the extreme repression there: people have ben told not to go out on their balconies to watch the Beijing parade marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the communist state, and pigeon-flying and kite-flying have been banned. If this China collapses, the financial repurcussions may well be enormous.
Anyone who accuses me of saying nothing about photgraphy clearly does not read the majority of the threads to which I contribute, and to accuse me of extremism when I am writing about the thread topic -- camera prices -- is nonsensical. You may disagree with my analysis. Fine. Put up a counter-argument.
Cheers,
Roger
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retow
Well-known
Since some believe the US will collapse, you predict China's collapse and I see a grim future for Europe and particularly the EU with its scaringly fast aging population (who is going to work in this colossal nursing home in 20 years?), let's go out shooting anf enjoy it as long as we can.
Richard Marks
Rexel
Dear Roger
I appreciate that this thread is about M9 prices but has drifted way of piste into a discussion of rising and falling empires and european unification. You have also derided the American health care system along the way and denounced the war in Afghanistan!
I do enjoy your very stimulating threads about photography and owe you a great debt for encourageing me to try large format photography. However I do feel that your point on this thread is only tenuously related to M9 prices and find your views on European unification and the decline of other 'empires' to be 'non sensical' with reference to the price of the M9. And quite honestly if the 'empires' that you refer to are in decline and you envisage a new emerging European super power then the last thing we need to worry about are the prices of the M9!!
Wonderful light over here in the UK at the moment by the way.
Regards
Richard
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Richard,
No-one has ever won a war in Afghanistan in recorded history. I therefore conclude that wars in Afghanistan are probably unwinnable. This is based purely on an observation of history. It is not extremism. Do you believe that the war in Afghanistan has no effect on the strength of the dollar?
Health care: do you deny that the USA is the richest and most powerful country in the world? Or that part of the weakness of the dollar is down to Obama's difficulty in getting health care reform through? Or that this is a temporary problem and that the dollar will recover? Is this an extremist point of view?
Someone else brought up the point that Chinese investment in the United States is enormous, and that the economic and political health of China is therefore a serious concern. I agreed. You may or may not agree with my view that the Chinese Empire will collapse, but you cannot deny the importance of China in the realm of camera prices, both directly (their appetite for high-end cameras is considerable) and indirectly (investent in the USA and elsewhere, prodction of cheap consumer goods). Where is the extremism here?
European unification: I assume you are a europhobe, but the euro is very strong at the moment, and there has not been a major war between EU states since 1945. This is the point of the EU. Where is the extremism here?
Cheers,
R.
No-one has ever won a war in Afghanistan in recorded history. I therefore conclude that wars in Afghanistan are probably unwinnable. This is based purely on an observation of history. It is not extremism. Do you believe that the war in Afghanistan has no effect on the strength of the dollar?
Health care: do you deny that the USA is the richest and most powerful country in the world? Or that part of the weakness of the dollar is down to Obama's difficulty in getting health care reform through? Or that this is a temporary problem and that the dollar will recover? Is this an extremist point of view?
Someone else brought up the point that Chinese investment in the United States is enormous, and that the economic and political health of China is therefore a serious concern. I agreed. You may or may not agree with my view that the Chinese Empire will collapse, but you cannot deny the importance of China in the realm of camera prices, both directly (their appetite for high-end cameras is considerable) and indirectly (investent in the USA and elsewhere, prodction of cheap consumer goods). Where is the extremism here?
European unification: I assume you are a europhobe, but the euro is very strong at the moment, and there has not been a major war between EU states since 1945. This is the point of the EU. Where is the extremism here?
Cheers,
R.
Richard Marks
Rexel
Dear Roger
Why do you assume that I am a Europhobe? You have no objective evidence for this what so ever.
Extremism is of course a relative viewpoint. Personally I think that you are airing very strong views here . I do not wish to have a political argument on this site but your views would appear to be a considerable oversimplification of the global position.
Regards
Richard
rxmd
May contain traces of nut
Alexander the Great in 330 BC, Sebüktegin and his son Mahmud of Ghazni in 977-994, Chingiz Khan in 1219, Tamerlane in 1382-1398, Babur in 1504-1506 and Ahmad Shah Durrani in 1747-1752 would beg to disagree. In that sense there's nothing special about Afghanistan.
As I said, there's nothing special about Afghanistan. It's a largely tribal area and fairly remote, but at that it's hardly unique. The main question about fighting a war there is "why". People both from inside and outside Afghanistan have been successfully conquering it in order to integrate it into some kind of empire (often a bloody affair, but not exceptional given the standards of the times). Nowadays, however, wars are usually not fought to conquer, but to influence policies and install some kind of ruler friendly to oneself. Most of the late major wars in Afghanistan at least since 1800 have been of the second kind, the main exception being the (successful) Russian conquest of Marv and Kushka in 1884-1885. Even here you could argue that the British won their third Anglo-Afghan War in 1919, and arguably the second one in 1878–1880 as well, given that they achieved almost all of their objectives.
However, it seems to me that the fact that this second kind of war has indeed been largely unsuccessful in Afghanistan in the 20th and 21st centuries is more due to the tribal structure of society, which makes it difficult to lastingly install someone friendly to you, the logistic challenges due to remoteness, and most prominently a fundamental lack of knowledge about and concern for the people involved.
Roger Hicks
Veteran
All right: for a given value of 'war' and 'win'. Of course you're dead right about the older history.
Cheers,
R.
Cheers,
R.
Pickett Wilson
Veteran
But what strap would you use on your M9 to shoot a winning war in Afghanistan?
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Richard,
Strong views and extremism are very different things.
I cheerfully accept the correction made above: wars have indeed been won in Afghanistan. though not often, and not recently, for the reasons so cogently described a couple of posts back.
You have not however attempted to correct me. Merely saying that I am wrong, or that I am oversimplifying, or that I hold extreme views, is not presenting an argument. What is your argument?
This is a thread about M9 prices; these are inextricably linked with economics and therefore politics; and if you want to bar simplification and the presence of personal views, 80-90% of the threads on this forum would have to be deleted.
Cheers,
R.
Z
zeezea
Guest
Thanks
Thanks
Ha ha. Now I can sign off and attend to my real life.
P.S.
I hope this does`nt make me a stress-phobe. :bang:
Al
Thanks
Ha ha. Now I can sign off and attend to my real life.
P.S.
I hope this does`nt make me a stress-phobe. :bang:
Al
gdi
Veteran
Humm, I often hear the statement that the USA is the richest country in the world. I suppose it is a matter of perspective - but given the current and projected levels of the US national debt and trade deficit, being richest ain't all its cracked up to be. To paraphrase Mr. Blandings (Cary Grant, for the all you Europeans), "What do all the countries who don't have a $14 Trillion GDP do?"
As for health care reform, I think that it will most likely add to the budget deficit (even if less than one dime), so its delay probably has little impact on the current value of the dollar. So, while the dollar's woes are hopefully temporary, recovery should not be a short term expectation.
Edit to add link to interesting article from 2003 - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2003/11/10/352872/index.htm
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jpa66
Jan as in "Jan and Dean"
I also see no short-term recover for the USD, much to my dismay, and those who are suggesting that you buy your expensive European camera now are probably correct ( IMO ).
When I was in Germany in 2001, I remember seeing several used Leicas and Rolleiflexes that I was interested in for cheap ( for me, at least, as the dollar was worth quite a bit then ). Like a fool, I didn't buy any of them, as I didn't want to lug them around on the rest of my trip! Since then, every time I go over to Europe, the dollar is worth less and less, and I don't think that it's going to improve any time soon.
When I was in Germany in 2001, I remember seeing several used Leicas and Rolleiflexes that I was interested in for cheap ( for me, at least, as the dollar was worth quite a bit then ). Like a fool, I didn't buy any of them, as I didn't want to lug them around on the rest of my trip! Since then, every time I go over to Europe, the dollar is worth less and less, and I don't think that it's going to improve any time soon.
Richard Marks
Rexel
Dear Roger
I have not specifically said that you are wrong although from my relatively "moderate" viewpoint your political opinions do sound extreme. This is not an argument. It is an observation.
I do however take exception to your assumption that I am a "Europhobe". On what do you base this?
Cheers
Richard
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Richard,
Simply that I cannot see what on earth I have said that would lead you to to ascribe extreme political views to me, except perhaps a deep aversion to Europe on your part. If I have misunderstood you, I apologize.
There is little point in continuing this, but if you can be bothered, I would be interested to know exactly which of my views (on anything) you regard as extreme.
Cheers,
R.