Probably neither way. Leica has never released a "shutter life" estimate like other camera makers have. But I've heard that it's in the realm of 200,000. Which seems likely seeing how the Leica shutter is much simpler than SLR shutters since there's no mirror mechanism to move as well. FYI all shutters fail, and there really is no guarantee of when. It could happen the day after you buy it or 10 years later. A shutter life expectancy isn't going to determine the life of the camera, it simply means when you hit that mark, such as 50k for the Pentax 645D or 300k for the Canon 1DX, that is the point where you should send it in for the shutter to be replaced. It's like the 6k mile service interval for getting the oil change in your car, or how tires makers say they're guaranteed to 50k miles. It doesn't mean they aren't going to die right after that point, it's just that that's the mark where reliability can no longer be guaranteed. Then again, your engine could seize or your tire could go flat before then as well. You get the idea.
